January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[beaver56]

16 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

The absolute definition of marginal 

Pretty much par for the course.

[RobB]

20 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

The absolute definition of marginal 

Too true. That's why it is hard to be too upset for me if missing snows. If it can't blow around and causes heart attacks to remove then.. Meh... Lack of cold is bummer. 

[StormfanaticInd]

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm liking where I sit for this event. But that's usually not a good thing when you're like 4 days out.

[easton229]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm liking where I sit for this event. But that's usually not a good thing when you're like 4 days out.

Feel like I just saw this same comment in a different thread 😜😂

[Hiramite]

Lets get started with the first installment of the Low Party Tracker.  Granted I might get a scribble gif from @FortySixAnd32 but nevertheless, the show must go on.

We'll start with the 0Z since as all the 12Z not in yet.  Will do the 0Z and 12Z each day or until my highlighters go dry.

For this run the GFS and Euro pretty much lockstep. The Canadian is way slower and has an abrupt transfer to the EC.

[Mulaman984]

ILN from overnight:

A system will be exiting the area Monday morning. Dry conditions are then expected through the day on Tuesday. A large system will begin to bring precipitation to the region Tuesday evening. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with where the low will move and this will have quite large impacts on temperatures and subsequently precipitation type. Even if the low moves west of the region and rain starts out as the precipitation type, as the low moves to the northeast cold air wraps around and there is still a good potential for some accumulating snow on the back side of the low. Due to this will add mention of potential for accumulating snow in the HWO with this system. Gusty winds are also expected with this system.

 

[NWOhioChaser]

3 hours ago, easton229 said:

Woke up not feeling as good as I did yesterday afternoon. Not liking the trends. Hopefully we aren’t talking about only flurries come Wednesday.

Probably need to expect this thing going wayyy SE. I’d bet money on it

[easton229]

1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Probably need to expect this thing going wayyy SE. I’d bet money on it

Yea, I’m fully mentally prepared for an inch or less only because I bought in fully a week out once again.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Icon is struggling to pull in cold air as it did 00z and 06z

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Messy

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Grace]

RGEM

 

[CIWeather]

20 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Messy

 

 

 

The rain right through the middle of Illinois when there is snow in Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois 😂

[junior]

GFS running. Looks like it’s digging a bit more through hr 60. 

[RobB]

4 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

The rain right through the middle of Illinois when there is snow in Northern Illinois and Southern Illinois 😂

It may be where the models see the heavier precip cooling the column for snow where lighter precip is more rain. 

[Grace]

[BuckeyeGal]

Stronger, and maybe just slightly South.

[BuckeyeGal]

Lol. Then it went weaker.. but still seems to be pulling in more cold air on the North fringes. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Definitely weaker, doesn't even go sub 1000, this will be significant if it doesn't strengthen back up

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[easton229]

Keeps getting worse and worse for my neck of the woods.

[junior]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Definitely weaker, doesn't even go sub 1000, this will be significant if it doesn't strengthen back up

Double edged sword. Stronger and it goes west. Can’t have both in this scenario 😉

[BuckeyeGal]

For Ohio, we thankfully have the benefit of nighttime cooling for the initial thump. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

For Ohio, we thankfully have the benefit of nighttime cooling for the initial thump. 

Depends on model of choice, I was just taking a look at that, looks like early morning through midday for front end on GFS. Timing keeps getting pushed back with a slower progression 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

18 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

the theme of the year has been for a weaker further SE system, but the trend over well....forever, has been the stronger storms (that stay strong) will always get their NW shift. So I think that's what to look for if hoping for the southeasterly track 

 

6 minutes ago, junior said:

Double edged sword. Stronger and it goes west. Can’t have both in this scenario 😉

Yup, I'm aligned lol