January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ohiobuckeye45]

As was the 6z gfs

[easton229]

Woke up not feeling as good as I did yesterday afternoon. Not liking the trends. Hopefully we aren’t talking about only flurries come Wednesday.

[RadioWX]

One would have to assume this is a storm you will want to use snow depth tool from the models and not the accumulation maps.   Ground will be pretty warm from the extended run of above normal temps.  So why a model output may say 6-8 inches, it likely would be a 3-5 inch event.   

[MesoscaleBanding]

8 minutes ago, RadioWX said:

One would have to assume this is a storm you will want to use snow depth tool from the models and not the accumulation maps.   Ground will be pretty warm from the extended run of above normal temps.  So why a model output may say 6-8 inches, it likely would be a 3-5 inch event.   

Depends on location - my area will have had over 100 consecutive hours with temps in the mid 20s to mid 30s by the time this storm arrives early Wednesday morning...also a shot at having some existing snowpack if things go just right tomorrow...

[Ingyball]

Certainly looks I'm going to end up having 2 storms trend north of me and then the 3rd storm trend south of me. Just one of those types of winters lol. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Eps

Edited January 21, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Definitely weaker, I'd say the sub 990 phase is over, really the gfs was the only one showing that for a couple runs

 

Eps

Edited January 21, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Gefs

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Geps

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Hiramite]

6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Nice job with these 24hr maps. 

[Hiramite]

From last night...

[Hiramite]

WPC extended from 2AM last night.  (LOL at CMC not available)

 

Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 159 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 24 2023 - 12Z Sat Jan 28 2023

Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

The 00Z guidance has improved its overall synoptic scale depiction across the continental U.S. through the middle of the week, although the 00Z CMC was not available at the time of this writing. The UKMET/GFS/ECMWF are in relatively close agreement with the low track through Thursday, and the 12Z CMC is generally northwest of the 00Z model consensus. Forecast uncertainty increases going into Friday and Saturday as the upper ridge eventually breaks down by shortwave energy from the Gulf of Alaska impinging upon it. At the time of the fronts/pressures creation, the 18Z GFS differed considerably from the model consensus for days 6 and 7, so it was not used beyond Thursday. A general deterministic model blend sufficed as a starting point through Wednesday, and an increase of the ensemble means up to about 60% by Saturday was incorporated to account for increasing mesoscale uncertainties.

[Hiramite]

And this is from yesterday.  I've been checking regularly and yesterday PM is the first time this storm showed.  I don't believe they update these over the weekend.

So, FWIW....

[MaineJay]

24 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Definitely weaker, I'd say the sub 990 phase is over, really the gfs was the only one showing that for a couple runs

 

Eps

GFS seems to often be the too phased/over amped model these days.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

11 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Nice job with these 24hr maps. 

I still don't understand why every site has 48 72 hour qpf, but 48/72 snowmaps are only available by a few

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Speaking of

[Ohiobuckeye45]

6z eps

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Mean does not go sub 1000 until NE of our area now

[Ohiobuckeye45]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Mean does not go sub 1000 until NE of our area now

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

14 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Kinda blows that there is zero hope of anything better than 8-10:1 snow ratios with this. I'll gladly take it, but this will be 'heart attack' snow to shovel for whoever gets it.

I moved a foot of 9:1 snow yesterday using a Yooper scooper ... No lifting needed! A new one is pricey, but I got a second hand one for free and it's been priceless with all the heavy wet snow we've had this year

[StLweatherjunkie]

12 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

6z eps

Low party at @Grace and @RobB houses on the same day?!?! This forum knows how to have fun 🥳

[Grace]

[FortySixAnd32]

47 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

And this is from yesterday.  I've been checking regularly and yesterday PM is the first time this storm showed.  I don't believe they update these over the weekend.

So, FWIW....

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

The absolute definition of marginal