January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[easton229]

3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Hour 84 comparison, now including the 0Z NAM.

 

Not too far off from each other

[Ohiobuckeye45]

The ICON takes a long haul before it finally filters in cold air

[Ingyball]

ICON is southeast and weaker, and I end up with rain. Not enough cold air advection that run.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Early on, the GFS like ICON appears more closed off 

[BuckeyeGal]

I don’t know what I’m seeing, but it’s a lotttt more blue over my state. 

[snowlover2]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

I don’t know what I’m seeing, but it’s a lotttt more blue over my state. 

Yeah nice front end thump even with marginal temps.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Not much change in the SLP but big changes upper air

[Ohiobuckeye45]

There's a small zone that double dips on front end and deform 

[easton229]

I think most of this forum would be happy with the GFS

[Ohiobuckeye45]

That would be the most robust front end I can ever remember 

[BuckeyeGal]

It’s like the Energizer Bunny. Mylanta.

[CIWeather]

Just now, easton229 said:

I think most of this forum would be happy with the GFS

I need a slight expansion to the NW and would be much better!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

This should capture everyone, overlap SHOULD be added 

[BoroBuckeye]

Interesting… 🤔

[SOMOSnow]

0z GFS 3 day snows thought 9pm Thursday. Went SE quite a bit but I'm still in a good spot with more room now for a possible NW shift.

Edited January 21, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[snowlover2]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

That would be the most robust front end I can ever remember 

There was something similar in maybe March/April 2019 that dropped 5-6" of very wet snow quickly overnight with some thunder from the front end thump.

[mafa]

4 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

0z GFS 3 day snows thought 9pm Thursday. Went SE quite a bit but I'm still in a good spot with more room now for a possible NW shift.

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

No euro for me, but disappointed the cmc is hung up again

[Ingyball]

I for one dislike the 0z GFS lol. Wouldn't be a problem if I knew we'd actually get 3-4" of snow tomorrow but I seriously doubt the GFS is handling temps well right now. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Uk

[Grace]

I just now got home. I like the trends. 

The CMC junk it's irksome. I mean get it together. 😀

[Grace]

I said this about the DEC system & I'll say it again. The teleconnections for storm:

+PNA & trending

 

Slight -NAO

 

-AO

 

-EPO

This just would not lead me to expect a further NW solution. Just saying. A SE trend the last 48-60 hrs will not surprise me. A further SE solution indeed won the day in DEC. 

I may totally be wrong, but I believe this. 

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Grace

[snowlover2]

[junior]

Noticeable SE and weaker trend which is almost a double edged sword around here. Gotta watch out for dry slotting shown better on the recent GFS. (All model runs have had it of course). You could miss or get scraped by the front end and miss all the ULL snows 😂

Edited January 21, 2023 by junior

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Cmc was much less fruitful with this front end experiment