January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[BuckeyeGal]

Another clipper maybe on Sunday night. THE CLIPPER TRAIN IS STARTING. *breathes in a paper bag*

..I'll never forget the random clipper that came literally along I-70 and dropped 6 inches of snow.. was supposed to only bring 2. Lol. 

[Iceresistance]

22 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

This is so close to being a whopper for ALL this sub-forum it's maddening.

Hey! Everyone that is here and is a winter lover will be happy if this verified. 

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, Iceresistance said:

Hey! Everyone that is here and is a winter lover will be happy if this verified. 

In this winter, heck yes. I'm just saying.. it's so close to literally burying everyone in here without the risk of rain. That's what's maddening.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

In this winter, heck yes. I'm just saying.. it's so close to literally burying everyone in here without the risk of rain. That's what's maddening.

It's also very unnerving when the setup is also somewhat marginal as well!

Edited January 20, 2023 by Iceresistance

[Ingyball]

I've gotten 14" of snow with surface temps around 34 before. It's doable but usually you need a ULL above to help with dynamic cooling onto of cooling due to the absorption of latent heat that'll you'll see with heavy melting precipitation.

 

 

 

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS...

Edited January 20, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Grace]

18z GEFS mean trends SE

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS heaviest snowfall axis runs from central Oklahoma to St. Louis to Indy to Toledo

[junior]

Paste

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

GEFS heaviest snowfall axis runs from central Oklahoma to St. Louis to Indy to Toledo

 

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

 

I got OOFED! 6 inches for a mean snowfall is crazy for Ensemble standards. 

[Ingyball]

Someone is going to get 2 feet of snow out of this, don't know who yet, but I'd bet on someone in Missouri.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

37 minutes ago, mafa said:

Rates can cool the column

Not so much questioning the science as just how marginal temps have gone this winter. We've lost literally every coin flip. Sunday looks to break the streak maybe

[Hiramite]

Thoughts from CLE this afternoon indicate the need for a “rotten tomato” emoji for us OH folks.

All deterministic guidance (ECMWF, GFS, and CMC) are trending toward greater amplification of a big longwave trough across the midsection of the nation behind this shortwave/upper low. This results in the surface low cutting farther west from the Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Michigan by late Wednesday.

[SOMOSnow]

59 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Someone is going to get 2 feet of snow out of this, don't know who yet, but I'd bet on someone in Missouri.

Please me !!!!! 

[StormfanaticInd]

This pattern is starting to get interesting. After this storm there could potentially be more storms. Icestorm???

[Ingyball]

Man if this thing phases with the northern stream someone in the Plains could be breaking records. Some real potential here. 

 

 

[Harberr62]

Thought this was funny from Northern Indiana. 
“

Not much to speak about here until the next weather system lurks
midweek. Seeing how winter has gone so far, and the models with it,
I`ll take the glass half-empty approach by saying that a notable
shift in storm track is still woefully possible. (Recall there will
be 16 model runs between now and Tuesday morning for those that are
run 4x/day). For now, given the blended forecast approach, I`ll keep
POPs a tame as possible as to not over promise on snow or rain at
this distance.”

😂😂

[StormfanaticInd]

5 minutes ago, Harberr62 said:

Thought this was funny from Northern Indiana. 
“

Not much to speak about here until the next weather system lurks
midweek. Seeing how winter has gone so far, and the models with it,
I`ll take the glass half-empty approach by saying that a notable
shift in storm track is still woefully possible. (Recall there will
be 16 model runs between now and Tuesday morning for those that are
run 4x/day). For now, given the blended forecast approach, I`ll keep
POPs a tame as possible as to not over promise on snow or rain at
this distance.”

😂😂

Totally feel given the past couple years

[SNOWBOB11]

GFS track was great here. If it wasn’t still 5 days out I’d believe it. Lots of time for changes good or less good.

[Chinook]

interesting to note that the main event we are talking about is the 45th anniversary of the Blizzard of 1978 for our region (not the Boston-Providence Blizzard of 1978)

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[MesoscaleBanding]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I see a few central TN to Wheeling, WV tracks in there. Gold standard for around here🏆

[NWsnowhio]

1 hour ago, Harberr62 said:

Thought this was funny from Northern Indiana. 
“

Not much to speak about here until the next weather system lurks
midweek. Seeing how winter has gone so far, and the models with it,
I`ll take the glass half-empty approach by saying that a notable
shift in storm track is still woefully possible. (Recall there will
be 16 model runs between now and Tuesday morning for those that are
run 4x/day). For now, given the blended forecast approach, I`ll keep
POPs a tame as possible as to not over promise on snow or rain at
this distance.”

😂😂

 

Perfectly stated. 

[BuckeyeGal]

Hour 84 comparison, now including the 0Z NAM.