January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Hiramite]

6Z GEFS (top) vs 12Z GEFS(bottom)

[SOMOSnow]

2 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

There are some smoke jobs on there for sure. If anyone has the Weather Bell GEFS that has all 30?

I will post it 

[SOMOSnow]

12z GEFS 30 member snowfall. 

 

[easton229]

1 minute ago, SOMOSnow said:

12z GEFS 30 member snowfall. 

 

A lot of those would make most of the members here very happy

[Hiramite]

1 minute ago, SOMOSnow said:

12z GEFS 30 member snowfall. 

 

10!

[junior]

From a severe thunderstorm warning to snow today Sunday and maybe Wednesday. Ohio 

[Grace]

0z Canadian (CMC) Ensembles just now finally loaded. Quiet a bit SE of 0z OP

 

If 12z Ensemble mean is similar I'd disregard the 12z OP. 

[SOMOSnow]

P26 40 or 50 miles South to be safe, please. Wow! 

[cperry29]

7 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

12z GEFS 30 member snowfall. 

 

I’d root for 11 but expect 26 😋

[Grace]

1 minute ago, Grace said:

0z Canadian (CMC) Ensembles just now finally loaded. Quiet a bit SE of 0z OP

 

If 12z Ensemble mean is similar I'd disregard the 12z OP. 

 

The 12z CMC OP was NW of 0z. Frames are missing after that. 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

4 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

The 12z CMC OP was NW of 0z. Frames are missing after that. 

 

wow that went insanely west 

[Grace]

2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

wow that went insanely west 

 

Indeed. That's why I posted the 0z Mean that finally loaded. If the 12z mean is that far SE again I think it's safe to disregard.

[Indygirl]

I’m late to the party 

Does this even look to be mostly next Thursday, or Wednesday ?? 
thank you! 

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy, I get DUMPED!

[BuckeyeGal]

2 minutes ago, Indygirl said:

I’m late to the party 

Does this even look to be mostly next Thursday, or Wednesday ?? 
thank you! 

Yes. Lol. All day Wednesday into Thursday for Indiana (looking like).

[BuckeyeGal]

23 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

12z GEFS 30 member snowfall. 

 

[junior]

CMC jumps west. Gives Ohio some ice 😂

[easton229]

Who’s ready for the Euro to just throw out a completely wonkers track now? 😂

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, junior said:

CMC jumps west. Gives Ohio some ice 😂

And I get DUMPED!

[Ingyball]

So I do expect a north trend with this system. Not for the simple reason that the past 2 systems have trended north, but because the ensembles are still having a hard time with snowfall for Saturday's storm here, which is going to impact the early week storm. This is the GEFS snow mean for the 1st system. 

 

The problem with the ensembles right now are that they're way to high with snow for the weekend system here. We will be dealing with marginal temps for just about everywhere except western Kansas. We'd need 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates to be able to get accumulations this high, especially with how warm it has been of recent. When the ensembles are overdoing this storm it's going to impact the track of the next storm. Until the ensembles catch on to this I wouldn't trust them any more than I'd trust a single deterministic run.

 

Even the snow depth is likely too high, I seriously doubt we have any snow survive until Sunday evening. Highs in the mid to upper 30s with sun will melt even 2-3" of snow this time of year across central Kansas. Definitely won't have any snow here in Wichita with us expected to hit 40 on Sunday. Shave a good half inch off the snow depth and that's a significant change in where the baroclinic zone could set up. After Saturday we'll have a good idea where that baroclinic zone sets up. Perhaps the first storm will surprise me, but I'm not expecting much more than a rain/snow mix with perhaps a light dusting on grass. A lot of the southern solutions on the GEFS bank on us getting 6+ inches of snow Saturday here in Wichita. 

[Hiramite]

Granted I just got back to my computer, but is the Canadian stuck on Hr 138???   Maybe they realized they loaded the wrong data??? 🙂

[junior]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

Granted I just got back to my computer, but is the Canadian stuck on Hr 138???   Maybe they realized they loaded the wrong data??? 🙂

Why yes I agree. Bad data 😁

[BuckeyeGal]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

Granted I just got back to my computer, but is the Canadian stuck on Hr 138???   Maybe they realized they loaded the wrong data??? 🙂

It put itself in timeout. 

[junior]

Euro isn’t digging as much. I’d expect a more western track this run. We’ll see. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

dont like it.