January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Hiramite]

The long range discussion from WPC last night.  The blend is your friend.

 

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 27 2023

 

The 00Z guidance has improved its overall synoptic scale depiction
across the continental U.S. through the middle of the week,
although the UKMET was slower and farther south than the model
consensus with the developing low across the south-central U.S.
midweek.  This lead to more weighting towards a CMC/ECMWF/GFS
consensus for fronts and pressures, and an increase of the
ensemble means up to about 50% by Friday to account for increasing
mesoscale uncertainties.  The axis of heaviest QPF with the
midweek storm system has now shifted to the northwest compared to
the previous forecast cycle across the Deep South and Tennessee
River Valley with a farther inland track of the surface low.

 

[Columbusbuckeye]

5 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Eps

This is about as perfect of a track as you can ask for in the Ohio Valley.  My concern is that is ticks north and we end up with the infamous WAA battle.  We know how that usually turns out.  

[junior]

Icon back to showing a storm through the OHV instead of suppressed. 

[Pghsnow]

[BuckeyeGal]

There are differences in the 12z GFS (again, to my amateur eyes). 

[junior]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

There are differences in the 12z GFS (again, to my amateur eyes). 

Yea looking like a bow to the Euro through 72. 

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

There are differences in the 12z GFS (again, to my amateur eyes). 

Stronger, held back West/South, and the upper Low is stronger and pushed off to the East.

[junior]

GFS took a pretty large step towards the Euro this run. 

[BuckeyeGal]

Wow. Flipping between the last couple GFS is astounding, lol. 

[Pghsnow]

[BuckeyeGal]

[BuckeyeGal]

GFS is back to the front-end thump idea. But I would agree that it has started to cave to the Euro.

[easton229]

Oh GFS why do you have to play with my heart like this?

[Ohiobuckeye45]

well that's a start, definitely trended towards the Euro

Edited January 20, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[mafa]

Better push with the 1035 high would help funnel in some colder air. Something to keep an eye on with cold air in place an pushing the storm further south

[SNOWBOB11]

Definitely a better run.

[JayPSU]

Just as an aside, is it bad to hope that the end of weekend storm peters out so I only have to look in one thread?  😀

[BuckeyeGal]

Snows through Thursday morning with the unicorn wraparound.

[junior]

Front thump looks good on the GFs. 

[SOMOSnow]

Some of you have probably been wondering where I have been. I'd pay massive money for today's 12z GFS to verify. Man, I wish that run were 12 hours out! If it verified 40 to 50 miles East it would be absolutely amazing. I made a black dot for my location.

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by SOMOSnow

[easton229]

Finally some solid winter like temps behind the storm too so nothing melts the next day. Nothing too crazy either where you can’t leave the house.

[CIWeather]

1 minute ago, JayPSU said:

Just as an aside, is it bad to hope that the end of weekend storm peters out so I only have to look in one thread?  😀

No, it's not going to be much this weekend anyway lol

[Pghsnow]

2 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Snows through Thursday morning with the unicorn wraparound.

Speaking of unicorns... Is this a clipper behind this system...

[RobB]

Just now, Pghsnow said:

Speaking of unicorns... Is this a clipper behind this system...

Seems to be an Arctic boundary.....

[SOMOSnow]

12z GFS three day snowfall 24th-26th...