January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[FortySixAnd32]

8 hours ago, Snow____ said:

GFS still with a good thump. It looked a bit East as well. But maybe im tripping.

 

[mafa]

4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

6z HRDPS tracks across SE/E Ohio...

Looks like it is tracing the outline of Ohio 😛

Edited January 24, 2023 by mafa

[StormfanaticInd]

[FortySixAnd32]

2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Eps, gfs, rgem

Razors edge!!!

[Cheezemm2]

What's your prediction for this storm?

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/tYi7uvgQk78ssupFA

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Cheezemm2
I give up, I'm old and yelling at clouds

[Chambana]

KIND gonna get hammered. Congrats to that crew. Should be a classic paste job. 

[Snow____]

The newest RAP’s and HRRR’s aren’t being kind to me lol. 

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

If it could just be a little further south so we could hold on to snow for just a bit longer. 

[GRR]

Just now, Chambana said:

KIND gonna get hammered. Congrats to that crew. Should be a classic paste job. 

Sure hope so...last 2 winters have been tough!

[beaver56]

Just now, Snow____ said:

The newest RAP’s and HRRR’s aren’t being kind to me lol. 

If it could just be a little further south so we could hold on to snow for just a bit longer. 

That is definitely the difference for the Indy area.  It continues to snow of the back side of the low as it passes.  I think this beauty is going to too surprise some people in a 25 to 30 miles strip on either side of what is being depicted.  Anywhere from Indy to Columbus is still very much up in the air IMO.

[BuckeyeGal]

1 hour ago, Chambana said:

Nice to see so many familiar faces over here. Typically this track does well for my area, and this one looks no different, should be a solid hit for E. central Illinois. 
 

thermals frighten me some, but it should be absolutely ripping, so it should not matter. 
 

final call for Champaign: 6.9”

Welcome! 🙂

[BuckeyeGal]

18 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I would take this.

[Snow____]

This would be worse case scenario for me 😂😂. Spilts my county in half. NW part of the county gets 6+ and me 1.5 inches. I’d be sick 

[Snow____]

2 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

That is definitely the difference for the Indy area.  It continues to snow of the back side of the low as it passes.  I think this beauty is going to too surprise some people in a 25 to 30 miles strip on either side of what is being depicted.  Anywhere from Indy to Columbus is still very much up in the air IMO.

As shown by the REGM cutoff is brutal there.

[beaver56]

Just now, Snow____ said:

As shown by the REGM cutoff is brutal there.

Exactly.  I think the cutoff could be bad on the west side as well as depicted there.  Even if the cold is better in those locales it doesn't mean the QPF will be.  Fun to watch unfold.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[RobB]

ILN Morning discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A strong low pressure system will move through the region during
the short term period. Updated headlines from winter storm watches
to warnings and advisories.

Low temperatures tonight will occur early in the evening in most
locations with a slight rise in temperatures during the
overnight time frame. An area of low pressure will approach th
region overnight tonight and precipitation will begin to move
into the region. While a brief mix of sleet and snow will be
possible with onset, there will then be a period of primarily
snow across the region for several hours late in the overnight
time period. There will be the potential across far southern
portions of the forecast area that rain will be possible. This
several hour time period late in the overnight is the primary
concern for mesoscale banding of snow and very heavy rates of
wet snow. After this initial band, temperature profiles quickly
changes for a large portion of the region where precipitation
will be more in the form of rain. There is actually some
instability during the afternoon hours across the far
southeastern portions of the region and therefore have a slight
chance of thunder in there. Temperatures in southeastern
portions of the region will warm quite a bit on Wednesday with
highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Northwest of Interstate 71 is
expected to only be in the 30s.

The surface low is expected to move northwest of Dayton. This is
not an ideal track for any additional heavy snow after the
initial band on Wednesday, except for far northwestern portions
of the region. Due to this have the winter headlines ending by
early afternoon across a large portion of the region and have
them lingering across the northwest through the day on
Wednesday. There will be a sharp cut off in additional snowfall
with the late morning through afternoon precipitation.

Also during the afternoon time frame winds will pick up,
especially across the lower Scioto Valley into portions of
northern Kentucky. Wind gusts across these locations may gust to
around 40 mph at times.

In terms of winter headlines have focused the winter storm
warning for locations just northwest of the low, for the areas
of greater confidence with the overnight mesoscale banding, and
also for the locations with lower snow criteria. Outside of
this area went with a winter weather advisory except for the far
southeast where snowfall values will be lower.

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, beaver56 said:

Exactly.  I think the cutoff could be bad on the west side as well as depicted there.  Even if the cold is better in those locales it doesn't mean the QPF will be.  Fun to watch unfold.

It's going to be close

[Snow____]

Just now, beaver56 said:

Exactly.  I think the cutoff could be bad on the west side as well as depicted there.  Even if the cold is better in those locales it doesn't mean the QPF will be.  Fun to watch unfold.

Yeah I think that’s what’s happening to the snow for me. Better qpf to my NW. I hope it can be more robust then depicted or come down SE a bit. 

[mafa]

It may be noise, but that heavy band on the RGEM is slowly shifting south east from 24 hrs ago. 
 

[beaver56]

1 minute ago, mafa said:

It may be noise, but that heavy band on the RGEM is slowly shifting south east from 24 hrs ago. 
 

It will be time to start looking at downstream observations here in a bit to see how the models performed and which one seems to have a better hold on the dynamics.

[BuckeyeGal]

Excited for central Indiana. It's been so long since y'all have gotten pummeled. 

[Snow____]

1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Excited for central Indiana. It's been so long since y'all have gotten pummeled. 

Me as well. They appear to be on the certain side of things and that’s good. 7-10 inches for a widespread area over there. Gonna be fun to see pictures of that pasting 

[Jeffro]

I actually don’t hate where us central ohioians sit at the moment… this could end up being a favorable nowcast situation. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Jeffro

[StormfanaticInd]

New 6z European 

[RobB]

Current radar and 500s