Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Its also fair to note that the 18-20 storm took a NW jog over the last couple days after coming SE initially, so something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 CMC throws a curveball 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) GFS op has minimal support from the GEFS for its northern solution... Edited January 17, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 At hour 126 - GEFS has the SLP centered on the KY/TN border while the Op has a stronger SLP centered over Toledo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 UKMET...FWIW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 After looking at the individual GEFS SLP locations, there are a few that would support a further north, torchy track for the OV - wouldn't really surprise anyone if the further north track wins out, but I like a further south track this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 12z GEFS: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The 12z Euro looks to be splitting the gap between the GFS and the 00z ECM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 😮 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 actually aligns pretty well with the CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I think this is the first time that a storm, over 2 inches, has been shown for WPa within 5 days away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: I think this is the first time that a storm, over 2 inches, has been shown for WPa within 5 days away. I am so hesitant to believe this could happen (Central PA) lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 17, 2023 The deterministic models look pretty gross here right now but just about every ensemble has a 2" or higher mean here with some hard hits so that's all I can ask for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 24 Hr Precip on JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) I like how the Euro/other models show the baroclinic zone quite well with one cutter through Chicago- next app/ohv runner and then coastal/coastal plains runner. Also this system looks like it barrels onshore pretty soon so we'll have answers sooner than we think. Edited January 17, 2023 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) going to ignore the weird dry slot, but the ICON is in a similar spot to 12z Edited January 17, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 the dynamics actually got better over the 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 GFS still sticking to its further NW solution but this run was way weaker (1003 vs. 996) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 12z vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 17, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 17, 2023 Early EFI look 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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