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January 21-23, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


MesoscaleBanding

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25 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

Don’t be sucking me back in… I had already accepted my rain 😂

 

I put this one to bed a few days ago. Just thought I'd check after lunch & I was surprised. And now I am sucked back in momentarily...hopefully that trend continues in that right direction. 

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1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

through hour 39 the NAM has even a little more meat on the bone than 12z 

As I posted in the other region, there were a couple 18z balloons sent up, so there is a little new data.

Screenshot_20230120-152540.thumb.png.811837d13279dd96775edb301b2e78cb.png

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2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

the 3KM gives and takes in completely different areas, but the moral of the story seems to be this one still has life to be a 1-3''er vs a dusting lol

How much is actually going to stick?  Am I looking at running plow operations (central Ohio) on Sunday now?

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This would be a coup for the GFS if it's right about the colder temps here, and we do end up with 4" of snow. I'm still expecting it to be too warm though and we get a good rain event out of this.

 

 

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ILN for central OH folks:

12Z deterministic runs have trended a bit cooler and forecast soundings indicate that the entire column will remain below freezing north of the Ohio River with decent saturation through the DGZ, so would expect to see primary precipitation type to be snow for these areas. Along and south of the Ohio River, surface/ low level temperatures may rise enough to see more of a mixed precipitation scenario. Right now, probabilistic winter precipitation guidance has 40-50% probs of snow accumulating more than 1 inch for areas north of I-70. Should note that the NBM puts freezing rain in the grids, but there currently isn`t a strong signal for this in soundings, so have yanked it. However, this will be something to watch based on track of low/ as we get closer.

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