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January 19-20, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm


MaineJay

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

I really dig these methods of expressing snowfall chances.

ProbSnowBoxPlot.thumb.jpg.f91d7c41fd9b8dfe70b12ff642f9c3fc.jpg

ProbSnowBarPlot.thumb.jpg.c51f339b1bf955bd1640a4674d995969.jpg

You guys do things different up there in Canada. 🙂

I clicked on a few other WFO's and didn't see these available.  When did GYX start doing this?  (I sure wish there was uniformity as much as practical with the menus and products.)

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3 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

You guys do things different up there in Canada. 🙂

I clicked on a few other WFO's and didn't see these available.  When did GYX start doing this?  (I sure wish there was uniformity as much as practical with the menus and products.)

If they were there before today, I hadn't seen them.

They've had these one for a couple years at least. But I like the box and whiskers best.

Sorry for the blue dot, happened during my screenshot.

Screenshot_20230118-073438.thumb.png.b662fcdf602921eb4df29fed2524f14b.png

 

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23 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I really dig these methods of expressing snowfall chances.

ProbSnowBoxPlot.thumb.jpg.f91d7c41fd9b8dfe70b12ff642f9c3fc.jpg

ProbSnowBarPlot.thumb.jpg.c51f339b1bf955bd1640a4674d995969.jpg

Winter storm warnings up.  Might finally get a sledding hill going out back this weekend.

Projected amounts are up. Even a non-zero chance at 18" apparently, though double digits would still be a good dump.

915873911_ProbSnowBoxPlot(1).thumb.jpg.2bc20fb6255d341bb484647927c90b2c.jpg

47871706_ProbSnowBarPlot(1).thumb.jpg.a94db12a9eae6aab5f44d6843be8c007.jpg

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Sounding like tonight should mainly just be rain here...maybe a little snow at the outset, then transition back to snow sometime tomorrow. Burlington still saying 2-4" for tomorrow.

Currently 31F outside with precip shield starting to rotate into central New England.

Edited by telejunkie
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13 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Sounding like tonight should mainly just be rain here...maybe a little snow at the outset, then transition back to snow sometime tomorrow. Burlington still saying 2-4" for tomorrow.

Currently 31F outside with precip shield starting to rotate into central New England.

Funny, it's mid to upper 30s with filter sun, not a terrible January day working outside.

 Not expecting any rain at onset, at least at my house.

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54 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Funny, it's mid to upper 30s with filter sun, not a terrible January day working outside.

 Not expecting any rain at onset, at least at my house.

yeah, mix line looks to stay west of the Green Mountains where the WAA will have an easier time scouring out any residual cold. You can see that east of the Greens are going to be higher impact zone at least until tomorrow morning

Screen Shot 2023-01-19 at 11.42.43 AM.png

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1 hour ago, telejunkie said:

yeah, mix line looks to stay west of the Green Mountains where the WAA will have an easier time scouring out any residual cold. You can see that east of the Greens are going to be higher impact zone at least until tomorrow morning

Screen Shot 2023-01-19 at 11.42.43 AM.png

I'm hoping we don't see rain. Currently forecast is for all snow but BTV has been going back and forth between sleet or snow. Right now our forecast is for heany snow tonight when it starts. Current temp is 34F with a DP of 26F. 

I did notice BTV seems to have the wrong date on the timing map for the precipitation to end. For us they are saying between midnight tonight and 2 am Friday. I think that should read Saturday because our forecast is for 2"-4" tonight and 1"-3" tomorrow. 

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53 minutes ago, TheRex said:

I'm hoping we don't see rain. Currently forecast is for all snow but BTV has been going back and forth between sleet or snow. Right now our forecast is for heany snow tonight when it starts. Current temp is 34F with a DP of 26F. 

I did notice BTV seems to have the wrong date on the timing map for the precipitation to end. For us they are saying between midnight tonight and 2 am Friday. I think that should read Saturday because our forecast is for 2"-4" tonight and 1"-3" tomorrow. 

Yeah, think the rain is confined to the southwest part of the state...should have made that clearer. Even here at elevation, suppose to be marginal at best...probably a white rain after the initial coating of snow. Considering we ended up quite a bit warmer than predicted from yesterdays rain event, wouldn't surprise me one bit to get a similar result tonight. Temp currently 32F, DP 32F

Screen Shot 2023-01-19 at 2.24.03 PM.png

Edited by telejunkie
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Thought it would start as snow but warm air aloft clearly ahead of the precip shield. Started as a light mix of sleet, fzr, rain. Temp right at 32F. Have that feeling this one has big bust potential especially across places like eastern VT and NH.

Edited by telejunkie
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6-12" predicted for Buxton, ME -- biggest storm of the year, so far. WOW, OMG

Frantic preparations are underway:

purchased some wine

got diesel fuel

started drinking wine

stacked wood on back porch

more wine

cleared branches from driveway

out of wine, back to store

filled sand buckets

tried beer for a change.

thought about clearing ice off front walkway

decided I would have a whisky with my 102 yo father-in-law, screw the front walkway.

I am just going to watch it snow tonight, slightly buzzed.

Such is life in Maine.

 

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Feel like even the hi-rez models are struggling with the warm nose. Feel like this depiction of HRRR shows the actual warm nose pushing towards the Winnepesaukee area and everything in the arc behind that will be mixed. I'm interested to hear what happens tonight up by you @TheRex 

Screen Shot 2023-01-19 at 4.52.46 PM.png

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Our temp is currently at 31.6F after a high of 34F with nothing falling from the sky at the moment. Snow seems to have made it as far north as Middlebury. The Adirondacks make it hard to tell how much snow is to our west but it looks like some heavier returns went through the Syracuse area and are headed this way. I'm hoping we can stay all snow. 

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I just got back from my monthly Costco trip. First flake was seen at 6 pm and snow got heavy around 7:30 pm. Heaviest snow I've driven in this winter so far. We have close to 3" at 9 pm with a temp of 30F and only snow so far. 

Edited by TheRex
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