StormfanaticInd Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Eps 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Oh cool - back to back Thursday mornings in January with thunderstorms rolling through. Outstanding 💩 Getting real tired of this repeating storm track. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) At least this system looks to have a pretty healthy snow swath with it...that's progress Edited January 14, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: At least this system looks to have a pretty healthy snow swath with it...that's progress Models seem to be locking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Models seem to be locking in. I don't think 'models locking in' past hour 48, let alone hour 100+, is even a thing. 🤣💩 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Hoping for that last minute 100-200 mile SE shift that seems to be a thing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Just now, easton229 said: Hoping for that last minute 100-200 mile SE shift that seems to be a thing this year. Until the pattern is broken, I'm fully expecting it - wouldn't be surprised to see central MO, central IL, northern IN, SE MI, NW OH in the snow bullseye with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 I'm going to go ahead & start up a thread for this unicorn GOM low that the 12z GFS spawns following this storm. One of these has to eventually hit big, right? 🤡 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 GFS now has the 23rd storm in a similar spot as the Euro. Who knows 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 3 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Seems like we're in the medium range doldrums now that the system in question is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. I circled this storm in green on the 00z Thursday analysis: Since the system was sampled as it tracked across the east coast of Asia on Tuesday/Wednesday it's plausible that older runs were better. EPS means made a substantial jump (from north IN to south IL) with the 12z Thursday run when it moved offshore so take trends since 00z Thursday with a grain of salt. Assuming the above analysis isn't completely false then I'd expect a ~996mb low within the green oval at 12z Thursday morning. Posting here so that I can come back on Thursday and double-check. "Since the system was sampled as it tracked across the east coast of Asia on Tuesday/Wednesday it's plausible that older runs were better. EPS means made a substantial jump (from north IN to south IL) with the 12z Thursday run when it moved offshore so take trends since 00z Thursday with a grain of salt. " Thank you for this. I had always wondered why it seemed to appear to me that there were many times a long range run that ended up looking similar to how the storm actually ended up happening. Never thought about how the energy was originally sampled in a good area, then lost, then resampled over a good area again. Now that makes sense how a long rane solution can sometimes be more plausible than a midrange solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: I'm going to go ahead & start up a thread for this unicorn GOM low that the 12z GFS spawns following this storm. One of these has to eventually hit big, right? 🤡 Maybe hold off on that...🤣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Quite the spread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 14, 2023 I'd definitely be okay with missing out on this first storm if it meant the 2nd storm on the Canadian happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Meh, I’m just expecting rain to rain/snow mix as the sun sets. Ground needs to refreeze since it’s been so mild lately. Mid to upper 40s all week starting Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 One of these outa slam the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 14, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 14, 2023 I will take a miss on this if it means the pattern shifts and gives me multiple shots at snow with lots to track with you all. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 14, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z EPS actually improved with snowfall here. I won't count anything out yet. At this point with the pre-Christmas storm it looked like we were going to get crushed only for it to be a very quick hitter (freezing drizzle was our biggest impact outside of the snow squall). Hope we do see some good ensembles trends here over the next couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 We’re at the point where I’d sell my soul for that 00z GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 15, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, easton229 said: We’re at the point where I’d sell my soul for that 00z GFS. You can have this one so it gets the snowpack going and makes the cold air slide my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: You can have this one so it gets the snowpack going and makes the cold air slide my way. Deal. Where do I sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 00z GFS kept up the storms strength longer than previous runs. 00z CMC would be great here. Still so early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 15, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 15, 2023 NAM hour 84 now captures the storm here in Kansas. 06z run shows ice storm for central Kansas. Would prefer not to get ice here but we need QPF so I'll take it anyway I can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 15, 2023 8 hours ago, easton229 said: Deal. Where do I sign? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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