Jump to content

January 13-15, 2023 | Winter Storm Potential


Penn State

Recommended Posts

  • Admin
31 minutes ago, GregRups said:

Its looks more NW for sure at hour 66. Lets see if it comes further north towards hour 84 like RGEM

 

The RGEM seemed to be on this pretty early on. Provided the favorable trend continues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Meteorologist
50 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Hires FV3 ticked west. I have concerns about this model in it's current skill level, as it's supposed to replace the NAM.

fv3-hires_ref_frzn_neus_fh39_trend.thumb.gif.742786cab5ec873b40bed35f7e7b3786.gif

Eventually it will take over but until the NAM is no longer wanted it looks to stay.

The spacing between system is definitely there enough that it actually enhances the jet over the NW Atlantic and allows this to tuck. I mentioned it the other day SNE and Maine look to have some fun with this. It may just be coastal areas of SNE but nonetheless areas around Boston may get snow.

  • LIKE 1
  • LOVE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At 11:20 am, we have 32F and moderate snow with heavier bands moving through. Flake size is large and everything is white. Rain is expected later. Looks like 75 miles to my north will get hit with heavy snow. It seems the winter of the storms wanting to stay in Canada. 

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Moderators

If we didn't another damn incoming Pacific storm messing with that ridge, pressing it into the center of the country....think we could get that negative tilt and this could have been good one....but that pressing ridge keeps it neutral to positively tilted.

Nice confluence across the northeast means a colder solution for the 20th per the 12z CMC, but still think we're looking at another cutter. 

Screen Shot 2023-01-12 at 11.24.19 AM.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I've been GFS'd.  GFS has western VT getting heavy snow tomorrow while the NAM has the precipitation to the north once it gets cold. GFS has me down for 7" while the NAM says less than 1".   It is usually the other way around for these two models. 

Quote

GFS

image.thumb.png.62fd12c1fe43067c1a3668dca2ba3155.png

NAM

image.thumb.png.7167fffe00d7dec51fd00617c4b82617.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Admin
1 minute ago, NEPAsnow said:

its wrong in NEPA as well.  Its 35 and rain

It seems to have a warm bias, and I know CAD is notoriously difficult for the models, but I can't remember seeing a model so far off just, 11 hours after it's run 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...