Admin MaineJay Posted January 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said: Showing less and less of a closed upper level low on models with the main piece, pushes the front through and that leftover energy is interesting to watch. Unfortunately don't see much coming of it though but will continue to watch for some signs of fun. Might help me get a little front end flakes, I'm expecting to be back to zero after the system passes though. It's not the best CAD setup for my area, but there's still gonna be some. Not expecting major changes at the this point, but perhaps sampling with the 12z suite throws in a wrinkle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just looking at GFS trend/Euro trends (euro holding pretty consistent, GFS had some big movers) overall looks flatter and faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 10, 2023 It will be interesting if we can get enough spacing in between the pieces of energy. Not going to trend to a big storm but could give some folks in SNE and maine some fun. May even have some snow showers back this way with the upper level low close by. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted January 10, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 10, 2023 Interesting projections. I don't often see people getting more snow to the north and south of me, but beggars can't be choosers this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) It’s quite possible that many locations in the NE could go without snow for the entire month of January. Could def set some records here. Edited January 10, 2023 by PA road DAWG 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 10, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said: It’s quite possible that many locations in the NE could go without snow for the entire month of January. Could def set some records here. Ensembles showing a pattern change around the 21st or so....time will tell if it leads to any storms though and if it has any staying power or ends up just being a blip in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 24 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Ensembles showing a pattern change around the 21st or so....time will tell if it leads to any storms though and if it has any staying power or ends up just being a blip in the season. Well there’s definitely going to be a more favorable more pac jet as we start to see the - to neutral pna breakdown to a positive pna around that timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 11, 2023 Should get a little on the front end, beyond that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 11, 2023 Little bump colder in the SREF. Weird little feature driving SE off the DelMarVa on the NAM3. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 11, 2023 GYX introducing a little more front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 11, 2023 Models struggle so much with CAD up here. Fairly sizeable differences between the HRRR and hires FV3. Midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 ☔☹️ well look on the bright side getting closer to golfing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted January 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 11, 2023 There is definitely a healthy spread between the high and low end forecasts. It’s all gonna depend on how mixy™ the mixed precipitation is between the front and back end snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just don’t expect to see rain this far north in mid January 🔥 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted January 11, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 11, 2023 NWS Caribou issued a Winter Weather Watch which means their belief is that there is a 50% chance of at least 8" of snow (based on the new experimental guidelines for my forecast area). I like the optimism! && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will exit across the Maritimes early Thursday. Low pressure lifting toward the eastern Great Lakes will draw a warm front north toward the region later Thursday. Expect mostly cloudy skies early Thursday, with snow then expanding eastward across the region during the afternoon in advance of the warm front. The low will track from the eastern Great Lakes to western New England Thursday night. Precipitation will expand across the entire region with increasing intensity Thursday night. The low will draw warmer air north. Based on critical thickness values, expect precipitation will remain mostly in the form of snow across northern areas Thursday night though could begin to mix with sleet or freezing rain late. Across central areas, expect snow to transition to a wintry mix. Across Downeast areas, expect snow to transition to a wintry mix, then to mostly rain. The low will track across the region Friday through Friday night, though the exact track and timing are still uncertain. Warmer air moving north will keep precipitation in the form of rain Downeast Friday. An early wintry mix will transition to rain across central areas. Across northern areas, expect snow will transition to a wintry mix then to rain/snow. Precipitation types across northern areas will be dependent on the eventual track of the low and how much warm air is drawn north. Gusty winds regionwide Thursday night into Friday, with gusts up to around 40 mph possible along the Downeast coast. Rain, or a snow/rain mix, will eventually transition back to snow across northern/central areas later Friday night with colder being drawn south. Across Downeast areas, rain will transition to a rain/snow mix late. Total snow accumulations Thursday afternoon through Friday night will be dependent on how long snow can persist Friday, along with how rapidly the transition back to snow occurs Friday night. Both factors will be dependent on the eventual track/timing of the low. Slightly above normal level temperatures Thursday, temperatures then warm through Thursday night. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels Friday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 Models are starting to get pretty bullish with this second wave, it's still 3+ days out there. But it's getting tantalizingly close. May only be some mood flakes, but worth an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 Interesting evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 19.6° with flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 😏 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, GregRups said: 😏 Loving this trend. 3 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Loving this trend. 3 days out. Would sneak up on some people. Still time for more western movements 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, GregRups said: Would sneak up on some people. Still time for more western movements The best kind of storms. The long Islanders could catch this. Though I'm not sure how far east everyone is. @Uscg Ast @LongIslanGurlllll @clm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 23° and very light snow in Windham. Trend on the EPS and GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 SSE flow looks like it's banking up along the mountains helping light up the radar a bit. I hope the ski areas can hang on to whatever falls today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 12, 2023 And yes, the radar returns are moving in from the west, but a close look, and you can see the lower level SSE flow. Might be SE, but you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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