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January 13-15, 2023 | Winter Storm Potential


Penn State

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It forms off this storm system rolling through. As the LPs roll north this retrogrades out in the Atlantic. 
 

Edit: is this technically retrograding?

 

52A61C91-FD69-445F-864B-A548DF149409.gif

Edited by TLChip
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Looking at it from above....it does make sense once cold air gets mixed in...that's a lot of energy coming around the base of that trough.

Screen Shot 2023-01-09 at 2.14.31 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-01-09 at 2.15.41 PM.png

Edited by telejunkie
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1 hour ago, TLChip said:

It forms off this storm system rolling through. As the LPs roll north this retrogrades out in the Atlantic. 
 

Edit: is this technically retrograding?

 

52A61C91-FD69-445F-864B-A548DF149409.gif

it is retrograding...it gets blocked under the massive HP dome that GFS forms near the Azores and extends to Canada, pushing the system back towards the US as it doesn't have an escape route east

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12 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Looking like I'll get warm sectored twice.

🙃

Screenshot_20230109-151103.thumb.png.0699e5e24c02bb30746cd01c47de553e.png

Snow in Delaware and rain in northern Maine, would have to be a pretty rare occurrence? 

Edited by TLChip
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7 hours ago, TLChip said:

It forms off this storm system rolling through. As the LPs roll north this retrogrades out in the Atlantic. 
 

Edit: is this technically retrograding?

 

52A61C91-FD69-445F-864B-A548DF149409.gif

Technically it is considered a cutoff low they have the ability in most cases to do this slight westward track but overall the pattern is not retrograding. When we talk about retrograding we talk about the large wave pattern moving westward. In the 12z GFS we see a very nice Atlantic ridge setting up which has 2 wave breaks. One smaller one up to hr 84 along the western Europe region. Then the Atlantic gets blocked up a little with remnant LP off Spain coast we develop another ridge from our storm mid month and then another wave break occurs around 120-144. It gives the look of a retrograding ridge but overall the ridge stays firmly in place over the Central Atlantic.

gfs_z500_mslp_atl_fh0-240.thumb.gif.94009fc8f6c98b418fd8be339483c2ed.gif

6 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

37AB465D-F467-4BE6-B170-EDC060529636.png

A34F77D3-BA7C-413B-8B7A-C1AC9CAF8EE9.gif

Lol too funny.

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8 hours ago, MaineJay said:

NAM trying to knock down the heights in front sightly. The longer this can stay positively tilted the better.

1139391021_namconus_z500_vort_us_fh63_trend(1).thumb.gif.5de3596d9bec127920e83622054a1596.gif

Showing less and less of a closed upper level low on models with the main piece, pushes the front through and that leftover energy is interesting to watch. Unfortunately don't see much coming of it though but will continue to watch for some signs of fun. 

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