Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 It's gotta get out further in front than this though, else it phases too soon. It's trying, but the early phase will bring up the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 Trying to pinch off those 850s, not this run, but closer. We got lots of spins left on the wheel of misfortune. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The timing for onset was like 12 hours faster here too. Big moves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: The timing for onset was like 12 hours faster here too. Big moves. Wondering if some of the winter recon flight data got in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 Storm is on average 5-10mb deeper this spin. Seems to have found a little more energy. I'll try to stay up for the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Wondering if some of the winter recon flight data got in. CMC had some big moves too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 Ukie 850 temps compared to previous run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 As much as Iove the changes, I still do not see it. There is no cold and nothing to block a bombing storm from being a significant inland runner if not cutter. If it bombs and brings down the cold air, it cuts. If it does not, we have no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 GYX Quote Quiet weather reigns until late in the week...as deep eastern CONUS trof begins to develop. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance now indicate some potential light precip along the retreating warm front in the region Thu. This has spread PoP out from Thu thru Sat for a rather broad "event" in the blended guidance. With a lot left to be determined regarding timing and evolution I am not going to get too cute on narrowing the event window...with chance and low likely PoP outside a more defined categorical period. Guidance has also trended cooler locally...with a more impressive high pressure influencing things. The ECMWF EPS remains the warmest of the guidance...with relatively few ensemble members favorable for snow near the coast. The GEFS is a step cooler...with CMC Ens being the coolest of all ensemble guidance and more snowy members than not. Once again I am sticking to rain and snow in the forecast this far out...but all ptypes are on the table. The saving grace may be that by the time mid levels warm enough to change to more mixed ptypes...the bulk of the precip may be done given how quickly some guidance brings the dry slot into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 Last 4 GFS. I'm going to continue to focus on that energy that's in Wisconsin on the latest run. Not sure how much further out of front we can get it, but the further, the more delayed the phase. Timing, timing, timing. No doubt a thread the needle situation, but not impossible. ECMWF now looks like the Ukie. Still feel 12/15-16 is an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 WPC Quote Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 158 AM EST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 11 2023 - 12Z Sun Jan 15 2023 ...California remains active into next weekend as a series of Atmospheric Rivers brings heavy rain and mountain snow... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The weather pattern over much of the U.S. should remain progressive but active, and trending more amplified, through at least next weekend. A very active east Pacific will continue to target an already very saturated California with more heavy rain and mountain snow potential as troughing builds offshore later this week with another shortwave moving inland next weekend. A shortwave initially in the Four Corners region on Wednesday will shift east, with guidance continuing to suggest a compact closed upper low likely over the Mississippi Valley by Thursday. Northern stream energy across the Great Lakes may combine with this system to amplify the trough over the East, eventually allowing for low pressure development off the Northeast Coast next weekend. The latest guidance continues to agree on the overall synoptic pattern, but there are a lot of uncertainties in the timing and details of especially the closed low/amplified trough in the East and any sort of possible Nor'Eastern off the Northeast Coast the second half of the period. The latest 00z GFS (available after forecast generation time) is significantly faster with this feature through the Midwest, a favorable trend given the rest of the guidance, but does differ quite a bit from its previous run with the evolution over the Eastern U.S. next weekend. The rest of the guidance shows a lot of uncertainty in the interaction between this system and weaker northern stream energy late period resulting in a lot of model run to run variability. Given there are more questions than answers here in the East late period, it seems prudent to lean on the ensemble means, which at least present a reasonably blended and middle ground solution. Out West, there is again good large scale agreement off the West Coast, but timing differences as a couple of short waves cross into California next weekend. Enough agreement on days 3 and 4 allowed for a simple blend of the latest deterministic guidance for tonights WPC forecast. After that, leaned more heavily on the ensemble means to help mitigate the differences especially in the East. Despite the run to run variability in the models, this approach did help maintain good continuity with the previous shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 Some CIPS analogs. There's different regions you can click on for different sets of analogs. This is when you click our region. This is using the center of the H5 low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Long range NAM, but at 12z, that upper plains energy MJ has mention is out front moreso than 0/6z runs. 850s upstream are a little cooler. Would that matter downstream later? 🤷♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Here was the WPC probs update at midnight. Next update in an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 12z ICON also a little more out front/deeper than 0/6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 What a track. Not enough cold. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) I saw this and got excited. Normally a low in this position would be a pretty good storm.... if it were coming up the coast. That it is coming from the west is what kills this. Most of the moisture would be ahead of this in with only residual moisture behind the cold front. Edited January 8, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) Damn. And there aint nothing in the works until 1/21 at the earliest down this way. Better go till the garden. Edited January 8, 2023 by JDClapper 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) I just cant believe this winter ct can possibly go with no snow in my area i was out side cleaning up the garden with no coat crazy Edited January 8, 2023 by Brodozer1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brodozer1 said: I just cant believe this winter ct can possibly go with no snow in my area i was out side cleaning up the garden with no coat crazy wait till late March and April, you'll get your snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 8, 2023 GYX Quote Details.... Weak shortwaves extending from a strengthening storm across the Canadian Maritimes bring enhanced upslope snow shower activity to the higher terrain on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure crosses through New England on Wednesday with seasonable temps. The high then drifts east into the Canadian Maritimes ahead of the next storm system. Low pressure is forecast to deepen across the Ohio River Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. At this same time, an elongated shortwave extending from the Great Lakes combines with WAA aloft to bring the chance for light snow to most of the area. How the low pressure evolves through the end of the week remains the subject of some uncertainty. The low is expected to track eastward from the Ohio River Valley, but there remains discrepancy among the models about how far northward the storm tracks. Overall there has been a slight trend toward stronger high pressure to the north supplying cooler air to the region, while also suppressing the storm track further south. This scenario would allow for the potential of a significant snowfall, especially across northern areas. The Euro and its ensemble suite remain the most amplified with the system. This is one of the known biases with the model however, and was on display this past week when the bulk of the warm air across southern New England failed to reach our area as the storm was less amplified and stronger cold air damming was allowed to hold across the area. With that in recent memory, a solution closer to the cooler GFS scenario looks reasonable at this point. This still likely brings in a mix and changeover to rain across southern areas, but northern areas stand a chance to stay mostly snow. While light precip would likely be the limit in terms of intensity on Thursday, the bulk of the precipitation is expected Thursday night and Friday. If a warmer solution does materialize and the low tracks to our west, mainly light and showery precip would be expected afterward on Friday night. A more suppressed southern track would make for a longer duration event and likely keep stratiform precipitation ongoing through Friday night into Saturday, especially across northern areas. So at this point both snow and rain are expected across the area from this system. There will also likely be some sleet and freezing rain in the transition zone, but it remains too early at this point to attempt to iron out these details. We`ll continue to see if the cooler trend continues over the next several models runs. Either way, conditions are expected to dry out by late next weekend as high pressure builds in and brings a brief period of relatively cool air to New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 9, 2023 Oh boy just not fun at all. That high just disintegrates over Canada and allows for a heck of a ridge to setup shop in the Atlantic, the lead wave is now trying to phase more into the ejecting vort so now we have an actual system forming inland. Oh well I guess on to the next one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 9, 2023 7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Oh boy just not fun at all. That high just disintegrates over Canada and allows for a heck of a ridge to setup shop in the Atlantic, the lead wave is now trying to phase more into the ejecting vort so now we have an actual system forming inland. Oh well I guess on to the next one. Mountains could still do well here, especially if we can get a dry slot to coincide with the warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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