January 13-15, 2023 | Winter Storm Potential

[JDClapper]

WPC 0.25" snow/sleet qpf probs, from 11:30am. PA valleys getting shaved out of low probs.

[TheComet]

3 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

It’ll be a tough pill to swallow if even the interior can’t get snow out of a system with a low pressure track on the benchmark like this

 

In the dead of winter no less.

[MaineJay]

Least to most progressive. Ukie looks like the most willing to pull energy over the top, keeps that bowling ball further south. Still warm verbatim for most.  Nothing else to track though.

[so_whats_happening]

I mean wow just wow at the differences in placement of the main features 5 days out between the Euro and GFS. I mean look at the NW Atlantic too just huge differences. That energy coming into the Gulf of Alaska region is going to have a really tough time getting resolved. There are quite a few small pieces of energy to get resolved properly to allow any consistent result between the models. What does seem consistent is the evolution of the low off the coast forming around NC in most of the models and then going NE from there. Where that closes off is important, how that tracks near the coast, what does the overall jet across NW Atlantic look, Euro has it rather ragged versus GFS which seems to be catching to a rather nice jet.

What also seems consistent thus far is the moving of the Canadian HP that sets up ahead of it. It can deliver enough cold at the surface to make a mess initially in the usual cold places with CAD. Things will definitely get overwhelmed but what catches is my eye is how the remnant energy develops after the low takes over along the coast does it wrap up quick can it throw some moisture behind while the cold catches up? Most models seem to agree temps should fall enough aftewards if precip were to develop we may get into some fun.

Euro brings some interesting things with it during the 12z run and the GFS doesn't seem too far off on a similar idea. Wanted to also include the canadian which seems to have its own flavor as well. Throws a very interesting scenario into western and some of central PA into NY something to watch of course but I want to say at this point most of the coastal plain is out of any major snowfalls from this. Could it produce some snows at the end fairly possible. Lot of things to resolve here. Lets check back in Sunday evening and see how things progress until then.

[MaineJay]

Man the 18z GFS is pumping out the digital snow.

[TheRex]

5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Man the 18z GFS is pumping out the digital snow.

I will be gassing up the digital snowblower tomorrow. That thing has had quite the workout this winter. 

[MaineJay]

I do feel there are some similarities with the 12/15-16 system. Areas to my north lost powerb for a couple days with that one.

GYX

Quote

High pressure will build in on Tuesday night, which combined with
clearing skies should allow for good radiational cooling conditions.
As such, incorporated some NBM 25th percentile into the
forecast, which brings lows down into the single digits across
the north to teens elsewhere. Mainly dry and near seasonable
temperatures are then likely for both Wednesday and Thursday.
The pattern then looks to amplify towards Friday and Saturday as
a deep trough moves east towards the U.S. East Coast and a pair
of surface lows near the Ohio River Valley and Cape Hatteras
begin to phase as they approach New England. There continues to
be a strong ensemble signal for this to be a potentially heavy
precipitation event as we tap into tropical moisture but there
is significant uncertainty in timing and ptype. As of now, there
may be enough cold air for precipitation to start as wet snow
before transitioning to rain. Given the potential for heavy
precipitation, this bears watching.

 

[Penn State]

[Penn State]

18z GFS RE-captured my interest.. 

Snow Map (For fun) 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Penn State

[PA road DAWG]

Gefs went nuts 

[kdskidoo]

4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Gefs went nuts 

as in stupid opposite direction nuts or NAM like snow totals nuts

[JDClapper]

32 minutes ago, Penn State said:

18z GFS RE-captured my interest.. 

Snow Map (For fun) 

 

16 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Gefs went nuts 

I will take a front end 3-6" in a friggin heartbeart.. anything to get through this abhorent pattern lol

[JDClapper]

Also, Wed has some sneakiness showing up for NPA/SNY on 18z NAM/GFS. 🤷‍♂️

[PA road DAWG]

15 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

as in stupid opposite direction nuts or NAM like snow totals nuts

P30 would be biblical 

[kdskidoo]

10 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

P30 would be biblical 

p 14 would also be acceptable for those of us in central PA.  but yes p30 takes the prize.

[JDClapper]

I see 7 duds for this thread. A 23.3% chance everyone here is bummed, per 18z GEFS. Not too shabby.

[PA road DAWG]

Absolutely Zero EPS and EURO support has me thinking this is a dud 

[TLChip]

jeez, p30 would cover the whole NE in a foot+ of snow..... Here's to hope, something most of us are losing this winter. Still another day or 2 to get samples of these pieces of energy.

[Cdfarabaugh]

1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Absolutely Zero EPS and EURO support has me thinking this is a dud 

We saw this movie before back in december lol

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Absolutely Zero EPS and EURO support has me thinking this is a dud 

Don't get me wrong, we definitely have some "warm headwinds", but the GEFS and EPS are pretty similar for 6-7 days out.  Solutions can and will change.  There's still a lot of spatiotemporal differences in how the various shortwaves interact that needs to be resolved.  

 I suspect that temps between the surface and H7 are close to, and likely on either side of, 0°C on many members, so we see big differences in snowfall output despite the similar look at H5.

 

[MaineJay]

13 minutes ago, TLChip said:

jeez, p30 would cover the whole NE in a foot+ of snow..... Here's to hope, something most of us are losing this winter. Still another day or 2 to get samples of these pieces of energy.

Looks like partial sampling within the RAOB network 12z Tuesday.

 

Winter recon flight this afternoon.  These might not have totally got in for tonight's 0z, maybe some from flight 2.

Quote

NOUS42 KNHC 061735
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EST FRI 06 JANUARY 2023
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JANUARY 2023
         WSPOD NUMBER.....22-037

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
       A. 08/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 07WSC IOP08
       C. 07/1930Z
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          25.0N 150.0W, 25.0N 170.0W, 45.0N 170.0W, AND 45.0N 150.0W
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 07/2330Z TO 08/0230Z

    2. FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
       A. 08/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 06WSE IOP08
       C. 07/1800Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          25.0N 125.0W, 25.0N 145.0W, 45.0N 145.0W, AND 45.0N 125.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/2030Z TO 08/0230Z

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
       09/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER TWO CONCURRENT
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC
       FOR THE 10/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
WJM

 

More flights scheduled for tomorrow.

Quote

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0120 PM EST SAT 07 JANUARY 2023
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JANUARY 2023
         WSPOD NUMBER.....22-038

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
       A. 09/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 07WSE IOP09
       C. 08/1600Z
       D. 5 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 130 NM APART, FOLLOWED BY 25 DROPS
          APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART, WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          25.0N 125.0W, 25.0N 145.0W, 45.0N 145.0W, AND 45.0N 125.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 08/2030Z TO 09/0230Z
       F. THE FIRST FIVE DROPSONDES WILL BE RELEASED PRIOR TO 08/2030Z
          FOR THE 08/1800Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

    2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 09/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 08WSC IOP09
       C. 08/2015Z
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          20.0N 140.0W, 20.0N 160.0W, 40.0N 160.0W, AND 40.0N 140.0W
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 08/2330Z TO 09/0230Z

    3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
       10/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER TWO CONCURRENT
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC
       FOR THE 11/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
SEF

NNNN

 

[MaineJay]

Main energy is located in here somewhere.

[Pghsnow]

For some reason I have a good feeling about this storm, esp for WPa. I think we are going to continue to see improvements as we get closer. Some of the ensembles have been insane.  So potential is huge. ICON has make big improvement tonight so a good start to 0z runs. 

[MaineJay]

An early change on tonight 0z GFS might help lay down a little more cold, have to see how it plays out, but the shortwave entering the Dakotas is different this run.  

[JDClapper]

5 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

An early change on tonight 0z GFS might help lay down a little more cold, have to see how it plays out, but the shortwave entering the Dakotas is different this run.  

Yeah, this is different this run... 🤔