January 13-15, 2023 | Winter Storm Potential

[Penn State]

12z Model Guidance Update | Hours 156-228

Ensemble Forecast
GEFS

EPS

CMCE

Operational Models | Surface

Spoiler

GFS

ECMWF

GDPS

Operational Models | 500 MB

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GFS

ECMWF

GDPS

 

[Penn State]

CPC’s slight risk for heavy snow area looks to hold serve.

[Penn State]

2 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Not punting here, despite how my posts may read. 🙂

I’m not punting either.. but we sure do seem to be in 4th and long situations much too frequently. 

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, Penn State said:

Double Barrel.. as mentioned by @so_whats_happening ..Pair of 1012 MSLPs. Maybe a CAD signature down the Appalachians? At any rate.. I agree with @Poco that there could be big evolutions soon. I think once downstream  better resolves, that will determine the window for the potential phase with the northern stream.


 

Yea the way the high pressure (warmer temp anoms) were setup really spoke to this potential of first low dieing just west of the apps and reforming along the coast. The biggest issue of course is keeping the coldish source around. Still have a couple days to check out how things shake out but should get better clues by monday/tuesday timeframe as for continuing storm potential. Temps will be resolved closer in time but first look is interior holds out cold at rather marginal temps overall across the east.

2 hours ago, TLChip said:

Don’t like the H flying east, like @so_whats_happening posted earlier, a 50/50 feeding cold air down would be the game changer. 
 

Edit: not down on this just keeping my expectations in check. Agree it’s a week out and complicated, models are spraying bird shots but should be walking up to the target in a few more days. Honestly I’d like to see big snow potential closer to the storm, not a bullseye 10 days out, never pans out. 
 

Thanks Poco for the long range dissects.

Unfortunately with how warm the waters are along the coast it speaks to the idea that the high will continue to the east. Doesn't mean we can't get the high to hold on just long enough but overall this looks as though the 50/50 may not be quite a thing. Which again makes me feel coastal plain takes another on the chin while interior can manage.

[so_whats_happening]

It is all about balances if the west coast ridging does its thing we would want the Atlantic side to react in a similar manner. If we have a nice ridge out west we want a nice 50/50 to the east to keep the storm from closing too far west. If we have a less pronounced west coast ridge we want a less stout 50/50.

I don't normally like posting surface maps this far out but less the pronounced 50/50 is an issue as the west coast ridge gets better and better. This is where a wonderful -NAO would come into play but alas we have to deal with what we have at play. If we can get the lead wave, what would be the 50/50, to slow a bit it could allow less ridging to our east which would cut off how much the high moves east and just how warm things could get aloft.

In about 2 or so days we will have a much better understanding of how things evolve whether good or bad.

[PA road DAWG]

I’ll be severely disappointed if this is a nor’easter rainstorm in mid January 

[Penn State]

The 00z is absolutely disgusting. The 540 line is basically non-existent in the CONUS (as shown on the Canadian) in mid-January. Storm potential or not, that’s a truckload of utter nonsense. It’s reality for this timeframe, but absolutely disgusting. I’m just a little salty.. 😂 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Penn State

[JDClapper]

13 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I’ll be severely disappointed if this is a nor’easter rainstorm in mid January 

Yes, and another day at work with comments such as, "Imagine if this was snow!"

Gfy lol

[PA road DAWG]

I still think it’s a little too far north given the old Norm McDonald rule.  Entry latitude is same as exit latitude.  But we shall see 

[Sentinel]

I'll be honest, with the screaming Pac... I do not see this being the one for the EC. Either a GLC or a Nor'easter with RN. In order for this to be snow, we would need a bombing storm and with the current synoptic set up, I do not see how we have a bomb without this cutting. There is no cold air in the CONUS or really even Canada for that matter; at least cold by January standards. 

[MaineJay]

If they were allowed to use emojis, you know the forecaster would've filled this with sad faces.

Quote

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Rather benign weather expected for Jan as the pattern
reorganizes in the extended. By the end of the period the
pattern will generally favor a western CONUS ridge and eastern
CONUS trof.

Impacts: No significant impacts are expected in the next 7 days.

Forecast Details: The extended forecast remains fairly mild for
this time of year...with no bitter cold in sight. There will
need to be some large scale pattern change to result in any
amount of sustained cold air locally.

As for precip chances there are two windows to watch days 2 thru
7. The first comes Mon/Tue as northern and southern stream S/WV
trofs make for the East Coast. At this time guidance suggest any
phasing occurs too late for the developing low pressure to
produce any QPF near the coast. There is next to no ensemble
support for any measurable precip at the coast...even if I were
to try and cherry pick a single member. However the northern
stream wave will likely produce some snow showers or even light
snow across the northern zones and mtns especially.

Around day 7 there is a stronger signal for widespread precip
across the region. While there appear to be some timing
differences between individual members...there is strong support
for appreciable QPF amounts. This is true of the GEFS...ECMWF
EPS...and CMC Ens. Given the strong ensemble signal I have no
issues with NBM forecasts going with a period of likely PoP
towards the end of the forecast period. At this time I will
leave ptype mention as just rain/snow...as confidence is only on
the higher side that some measurable precip will fall. Despite
the calendar date...the lack of fresh cold air mass will mean a
more rainy scenario is still in the cards for any system in the
next 7 days.

 

[PA road DAWG]

4 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

I'll be honest, with the screaming Pac... I do not see this being the one for the EC. Either a GLC or a Nor'easter with RN. In order for this to be snow, we would need a bombing storm and with the current synoptic set up, I do not see how we have a bomb without this cutting. There is no cold air in the CONUS or really even Canada for that matter; at least cold by January standards. 

So basically rain lol 

[MaineJay]

I was just thinking to myself, "we could really use another 3-6" of rain "...

I'm going back to watching the kids rock tumbler for now 

 

[MaineJay]

We did manage 2.5" of snow yesterday, so I guess I can't really complain.

Foggy.

[JDClapper]

0z EPS has nearly given given up on this one... */plays Price is Right loser riff*

[so_whats_happening]

Man oh man the Atlantic is just not working for us, it is close but just not happening moving things just way too quickly. We may be at the range where backside energy digging into the trough is going through a null zone so maybe why it is weaker overall and seems to be phasing rather quickly leading to the main low to go into Central IN and western OH, no beuno either. Tracing back the energy it is around the Aleutians low as the lead energy at this time, it just gets messy in the eastern Pacific in the coming days and the energy comes on land in about 72 hours. Doubt we will see major changes at this point but there is a chance the energy is slower or stronger ridge is more ridgy. Atlantic low is hopefully a bit slower would love to see it close off not just become a strong storm. 

Need the energy to be a little further south closer to the Gulf coast not in the center of the country. Many many things to change unfortunately. 

[JDClapper]

WPC 0.25" snow/sleet qpf probs, from 11:30pm

[PA road DAWG]

It’ll be a tough pill to swallow if even the interior can’t get snow out of a system with a low pressure track on the benchmark like this

 

[PA road DAWG]

6z gefs showing some Nukes in there

 

[Sentinel]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

We did manage 2.5" of snow yesterday, so I guess I can't really complain.

Foggy.

Yeah! I did an inspection (via zoom) in caribou and saw it was snowing! 

[MaineJay]

I wonder if this piece circled in blue can get out in front a little more, it might knock heights down in front of the main energy, keeping some cold pressing in.  It appears to phase so early, that the wound up storm just ingests too much warmth off the Atlantic.

Modeling will evolve quite a bit over the next few days, and it's really not worth worrying about storm strength till we are within 96 hours.  Obviously, expectations are tempered, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

[PA road DAWG]

15 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I wonder if this piece circled in blue can get out in front a little more, it might knock heights down in front of the main energy, keeping some cold pressing in.  It appears to phase so early, that the wound up storm just ingests too much warmth off the Atlantic.

Modeling will evolve quite a bit over the next few days, and it's really not worth worrying about storm strength till we are within 96 hours.  Obviously, expectations are tempered, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Yea, I think this is one of those systems that were able to tell early on whether it’ll be snow or rain.  We’re so accustomed to the windshield wiper effect by miles drastically changing snow amounts.   However, this is pretty cut and dry.  No 50/50 or even bad placing of quasi 50/50 = warm and rain  

[PA road DAWG]

You can’t make this up.  Damn near perfect track for mid January and we’re getting rain up to the St Lawrence 

 

[PA road DAWG]

Slap a 50/50 in there and this would be a KU monster.  But there’s always that one thing that messes up storms 

[so_whats_happening]

30 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I wonder if this piece circled in blue can get out in front a little more, it might knock heights down in front of the main energy, keeping some cold pressing in.  It appears to phase so early, that the wound up storm just ingests too much warmth off the Atlantic.

Modeling will evolve quite a bit over the next few days, and it's really not worth worrying about storm strength till we are within 96 hours.  Obviously, expectations are tempered, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Either that energy comes in earlier or a cut off 50/50 sets up better or the s/w to dig further south and be more into TX versus OK. The biggest issue is keeping the cold around until we get the coastal going there will be cold initially but it just doesn't have staying power without a new high building in to the N instead of ENE of the area. It is not bombing out but would cutoff enough to allow cold to sustain itself if one of these 3 options occurred. I would say we still have some time to watch but still favoring the inland snow threat. Feel we should really know by Monday 12z runs. How much changes in between then im not too sure.