Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Poco said: Tad warm…for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I wouldn’t call it warm, it’s a dynamics thing, it’s too far west on this run to make you digitally happy but considering the 0z gfs this 12z run is a step back towards a winter storm scenario. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) Just completely occludes and cuts off on 12z gfs. There’s a long ways to go yet. I’m def interested Edited January 6, 2023 by Poco 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gdps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Let’s see some ensembles over this weekend, at least we got something to track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 6, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just a comparison at hour 144 (UK / GFS / GDPS).. That's a pretty bowling ball. There's a lot to be determined, but I like the look. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 Beautiful storm on the Canadian. Unfortunately ensembles all agree no matter what happens with this storm another big warm up ensues. Don't think a snowpack is going to materialize again this year. Bright side is the western drought getting drowned.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Penn State said: Just a comparison at hour 144 (UK / GFS / GDPS).. That's a pretty bowling ball. There's a lot to be determined, but I like the look. So that ULL over the central US needs to open, phase in a possible nothern stream energy and then re-occlude all the while the track of the resultant surface mslp and it’s transfer /occlusion will be determined by multiple factors to the west to the east and to the north. There’s so much to iron out yet. We are evolving for better or worse. I’d say 12z so far was a step in the better direction for now if the gmao exercise holds true 12z euro May struggle to produce a cold dynamic solution, but again it’s just an exercise 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) The mean is good but it’s still very much like bird shot no discernible strong spread to speak about. Hence why I speak of of a wide envelope of solutions and much evolution to come, for better or worse Edited January 6, 2023 by Poco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 6, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 6, 2023 While we await the ECMWF.. Some fantasy snow maps for your viewing pleasure! This is a cumulative 240 look. GFS GDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) 12z GEFS clownmaps (I’d take the control run or 9, ☃️, ok anything with snowfall I’d take at this rate) Edited January 6, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 6, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, TLChip said: 12z GEFS clownmaps Honestly.. I'll take that control run right there lol.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) A cutter that reforms off the coast. Edited January 6, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 Low isn't changing that much, but the High is definitely progressing east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Well, we gave it the old college try. 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 Usually this isn't bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 This isn't usually bad either 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12z euro had a good mslp track the phases were sloppy. If not mistaken I believe it actually tried phasing separate energies inside the longwave So no real dynamics were able to consolidate and get going. The backside energy being the most important to get the cold to spark it all kind of took a back seat. wouod be interested in seeing the control and sone other members from the probalistic suite to see if any were able to pull down more cold wrap it around and start the ccb and other dynamics 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) Don’t like the H flying east, like @so_whats_happening posted earlier, a 50/50 feeding cold air down would be the game changer. Edit: not down on this just keeping my expectations in check. Agree it’s a week out and complicated, models are spraying bird shots but should be walking up to the target in a few more days. Honestly I’d like to see big snow potential closer to the storm, not a bullseye 10 days out, never pans out. Thanks Poco for the long range dissects. Edited January 6, 2023 by TLChip 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This threat is a week out, it’s a complicated phasing setup. No single deterministic or probabilistic run is going to be a nail in the coffin right now. It’s possibly a big storm setup. This was always bound to evolve. also regarding the downstream flow and 5050, that’s still evolving too. last 8 run h5 delta gefs surface mean with spreads. Do note the trend and spread in the 5050 area No need to get too attached to any single run or model right now. It’s a marginal setup but has big potential. We can leave it at that being a week out I’d hope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12z EPS kinda walking away from big daddy snows. Still a good 15-25% of a minor measurable event for interior PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Not punting here, despite how my posts may read. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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