January 13-15, 2023 | Winter Storm Potential

[PA road DAWG]

58 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

EPS shift of tails favoring the mid Atlantic.

Given how everything has trended NNW this season I’ll take it 

[MaineJay]

GYX gives a mention

Quote

Operational models and ensemble solutions continue to hint at a
large coastal storm late in the work week next week or early
next weekend intensifying near the Mid Atlantic coastline
region. This system appears to be significant and will need to
be monitored closely, however is still potentially a week away.

 

[Penn State]

This comment from Joe Bastardi got my attention.. Any analog comparisons that resemble ‘96, ‘16.. ‘83?

[PA road DAWG]

18 minutes ago, Penn State said:

This comment from Joe Bastardi got my attention.. Any analog comparisons that resemble ‘96, ‘16.. ‘83?

I hate when he does that.  He always tries to tie future patterns into the past.  Just like a snowflake,  No two weather systems are alike.   

[PA road DAWG]

The antecedent energy appears to miss the phase for the 50/50 which in result will cause this storm to be warm and cut.  IMO 

[PA road DAWG]

Story of winter so far.  Swing them wide right early then cut hard 

Edited January 6, 2023 by PA road DAWG

[Penn State]

1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

The antecedent energy appears to miss the phase for the 50/50 which in result will cause this storm to be warm and cut.  IMO 

What’s somewhat surprising to me.. even the Canadian, which has a rather suppressed track is still quite warm. There’s just not much cold to work with unfortunately. 

[Penn State]

WPC Day 7.. On just the raw image, this looks exciting. 

[Penn State]

Just for giggles.. but SW Virginia.. Wow! That’s 52” 😂

[MaineJay]

3 hours ago, Penn State said:

What’s somewhat surprising to me.. even the Canadian, which has a rather suppressed track is still quite warm. There’s just not much cold to work with unfortunately. 

Pacific system undercutting the eastern ridge would have a hard time finding the cold. I think a real strong storm could overcome some warmth, but the damn storm seems to get squashed wicked far south, and it so removed from the northern stream, there's zero cold to tap.

I mean, the ECMWF basically shows it wrapping warm air all the way around it.  The hour 240 image is really quite remarkable for the "dead of winter".  Almost no sub freezing 850 temps in the CONUS.

These eastern CONUS high amplitude ridges in the long range often get the tops knocked off as they come closer to reality.  We are gonna need some sneaky northern stream energy to escape from the very high latitudes to introduce itself.  Unlikely, but not impossible.

   I also wouldn't be surprised if the storm slowed more also.  I remember a similar storm earlier this year that took forever and a day to cross the CONUS.  I know the northern stream has retreated way to the north, but 8-10 days out, maybe it can find a way to link up.  Trying to find a shred of optimism though perhaps.

[so_whats_happening]

If a storm were to form I would say the 6z GFS had the best look of what the pattern could produce. Mostly Central NY storm but areas of Central and NE PA get in on some accumulations. Higher terrain through much of New England. Minimal along the coast lack of any deep cold air is certainly the issue. We spent our cold from that blast in December. 

To trend in a positive for any within the coastal plain and south of the MD/PA border is you want to get an actual storm to form off of Newfoundland the typical 50/50. That would lock the high in up north cut the storm a little quicker and be a bit further south when it does so. The west holds just fine through the process its the transient Atlantic pattern that is not helping one bit, everything overall is still progressive but beautiful timing on the western ridge and position is wonderful. The demise of it is just late enough to trap the coastal even in a progressive flow overall. Plenty of time to watch.

[TLChip]

GEFS clownfalls
Rough year for Skiers in the NE, not much powder dropping even at elevation in the NE. 

 

[MaineJay]

5 minutes ago, TLChip said:

GEFS clownfalls
Rough year for Skiers in the NE, not much powder dropping even at elevation in the NE. 

 

My concrete guy runs the snowmaking at Pleasant mountain, said they had to close the mountain last night.  It was such a promising start to the season too.  Mountain had to close for 2 days after the snowstorm a week before Christmas because they had no power or cell service.  Tough go.  

  Without a brutal cold snap, I don't see how the Sebago fishing derby takes place this year. Even smaller bodies are mostly wide open around here.

[TLChip]

3 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

My concrete guy runs the snowmaking at Pleasant mountain, said they had to close the mountain last night.  It was such a promising start to the season too.  Mountain had to close for 2 days after the snowstorm a week before Christmas because they had no power or cell service.  Tough go.  

  Without a brutal cold snap, I don't see how the Sebago fishing derby takes place this year. Even smaller bodies are mostly wide open around here.

It’s got to be brutal, I’ve thought about pushing my vacation back, at least I just explore on my feet and don’t need POW. Hopefully late Jan/Feb gets the goods up there. 

[Poco]

06z gfs 

[Poco]

Navgem 06z 

 

Hard to discern much from the nav in such a dynamic setup. It never gets an injection from the nothern stream. 
 

very dynamic setup. Would not be surprised if we have sone major evolutions today one way or the other.  

Such a setup  will even make the ensemble suites struggle as a non phased control run will skew member outputs.  

in a sense the nav run mimics a lot of the operational misses from 0z, we need that injection into the southern wave to dynamically create a storm which creates cold and at the same time sharpens the western ridge and helps orient it.  Without a 5050 downstream things get even more tricky.  All things to watch out for 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Poco

[Poco]

0z ukie 

 

[StretchCT]

Quite the diff between the 6z and 0z runs

[Penn State]

Double Barrel.. as mentioned by @so_whats_happening ..Pair of 1012 MSLPs. Maybe a CAD signature down the Appalachians? At any rate.. I agree with @Poco that there could be big evolutions soon. I think once downstream  better resolves, that will determine the window for the potential phase with the northern stream.


 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Penn State

[Poco]

Icon has a two piece phase at 12z 

The solution envelope still very wide on this period 

[TheRex]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

My concrete guy runs the snowmaking at Pleasant mountain, said they had to close the mountain last night.  It was such a promising start to the season too.  Mountain had to close for 2 days after the snowstorm a week before Christmas because they had no power or cell service.  Tough go.  

  Without a brutal cold snap, I don't see how the Sebago fishing derby takes place this year. Even smaller bodies are mostly wide open around here.

Mad River Glen was closed this week and hoping to open for the weekend once it gets cold enough to make snow.  They've  only received 38"-45" of snow this winter and they don't have snowmaking capabilities for much of the mountain.  I feel really bad for these smaller mountains that have just been barely getting by the last few seasons with Covid limitations and now crappy weather.

[Poco]

arent phases pretty 

[Poco]

[PA road DAWG]

2 hours ago, Poco said:

Navgem 06z 

 

Hard to discern much from the nav in such a dynamic setup. It never gets an injection from the nothern stream. 
 

very dynamic setup. Would not be surprised if we have sone major evolutions today one way or the other.  

Such a setup  will even make the ensemble suites struggle as a non phased control run will skew member outputs.  

in a sense the nav run mimics a lot of the operational misses from 0z, we need that injection into the southern wave to dynamically create a storm which creates cold and at the same time sharpens the western ridge and helps orient it.  Without a 5050 downstream things get even more tricky.  All things to watch out for 

Pretty classic nor’easter look on the 12z gfs 

[PA road DAWG]

1042 hp with a bombing low transfer to the coast should work