January 13-15, 2023 | Winter Storm Potential

[MaineJay]

10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This was a beautiful warm seclusion. Apparently NHC was debating the idea of naming this it is that impressive.

Still looks amazing, holding onto that eye like structure.

[MaineJay]

Was, snow, then ZR, now sleet/snow. Getting pretty close to the precip "grand slam". Dubious as it may be.

 

[buxtonian]

No precipitation at present, 1" inch down, 30˚ F. Light and variable wind. Bring on spring.

[Wayuphere]

All night sleet still ongoing, at times heavy and mixed with a few rain drops. 27.1°.  Moisture feed is heading due west off the Gulf of Maine/Canadian Maritimes into east central Maine.

[Mainiac]

it’s 23.9°F and freezing rain. Hopefully this ice storm doesn’t over perform. I wonder how high up you need to go to get to above freezing with this current inversion.

[MaineJay]

10 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

it’s 23.9°F and freezing rain. Hopefully this ice storm doesn’t over perform. I wonder how high up you need to go to get to above freezing with this current inversion.

As of 7am. Looks like just over a kilometer, 3,500-4,000ish feet I guess.

[MaineJay]

Back to snow here.

 

 

[Wayuphere]

At least we got a tip of the hat from the NHC..👍

[buxtonian]

we have reached 3" of snow after a couple of bursts of heavy snow. 

[TLChip]

Is the Atlantic above average temps currently? Fetching warm air up to Maine while spinning 100 miles south 🫠

[so_whats_happening]

18 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Is the Atlantic above average temps currently? Fetching warm air up to Maine while spinning 100 miles south 🫠

Very much so about 2-4 above average. Temps are 5-8 C near Maine

[TheRex]

We've been experiencing on and off snowshowers this afternoon and it seems it is from the storm in the Atlantic. Currently 22F with moderate snow falling. 

I noticed in the Midwest it is raining today in Minneapolis. I wouldn't expect that to be too common in January. 

[buxtonian]

Sleet, 32˚F ugh!

 

[Wayuphere]

I just got back from a 40 mile round trip to the veterinarians with the dog.  Most of the town roads were not plowed yet, with 3-5” of sleet acting like mud and pulling the truck everywhere.   The few cars I saw were off the road, either a heavier 4wd or AWD being a must. State roads and I95 were plowed which exposes the surface to the freezing rain..🤷🏼‍♂️

Still heavy sleet here in the sticks, but a sleet/freezing rain mix closer to Bangor.

[TLChip]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Very much so about 2-4 above average. Temps are 5-8 C near Maine

I’ve never really paid much attention to ocean temps during the winter. Would warmer waters promote a stronger coastal, or can it cause more mixing areas on the east side of the storm mixing further north? Timing is also important when the Low finally transfers and how much warm air before that point. 

Just seeing a coastal spinning in the Atlantic so far south bringing a mixed bag to places in Maine is just weird looking in January. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by TLChip

[so_whats_happening]

42 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I’ve never really paid much attention to ocean temps during the winter. Would warmer waters promote a stronger coastal, or can it cause more mixing areas on the east side of the storm mixing further north? Timing is also important when the Low finally transfers and how much warm air before that point. 

Just seeing a spinning storm in the Atlantic so far south bringing a mixed bag to places in Maine is just weird looking in January. 

Well it is a balance as with most things in weather. Warmer waters allow for potential energy to be a bit more abundant when the right conditions arrive. The thing of recent unfortunately is the waters have been wellll above average across the east coast instead of just warmer. This pushes the baroclinicity further west and allows more warm air to ride into storms than previous times. The warmer waters also allow a better marine layer to set up and not get wiped away as easily which allows the warmer air aloft to be pushed further into storms. 

There are several reasons why this is a warmer storm for them. There is not a cold feed into the system the cold air behind it is tapped out as we are in the 50's around here today if we were in the 20's and 30's might be a little bit of a different story. Another factor is bad high placement. The high is off to the east of the system versus NW or N which would offer up a cooler flow to help feed cold into the system again another cold feed issue. Jet placement is another factor, while not in a terrible position it doesn't have a cold tap as mentioned so it tends to just drag in warmer temps aloft that allow this changeover to occur instead of fighting off the warming. The 900mb-750mb range tends to be greatly impacted by temperature advection. Hence why many people use 850's but we don't always get a great reading at 850mb to tell the tale so that is why skew t's are a wonderful tool to use when you have access to them and not one 50-100miles away.

The basic idea is without a cold air source where we have a high pressure feeding in cold on the back side of the system or have cold air already positioned in the region and a newly forming high off to north to help reinforce the cold wedge it is left to warming. The cold wedge also can enhance precip locally with a coastal front setup as moisture overrides that front and is lifted above the cold so probably another reason why precip overall is light to moderate which favors a warmer solution (a weaker coastal front). To add on the overall lift of the system at higher levels is rather marginal too so overall lift is not too strong not allowing for dynamic cooling and hence allows a warmer solution and lighter precip to occur. A steady light rain can be unfortunate with weak divergence aloft and a weak coastal front and not much cold air to begin with or behind the system.

Edited January 16, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry for the long post but going off of what was reported in many locations. There was initially just enough cold through the column to have a burst of snow. As the jet came more into the region it was allowing things to warm aloft while also having the best lifting displaced from the state (more into Newfoundland/Nova Scotia area) it allowed the precip to still be around but the changeover occurred. As the storm begins to move away it may be able to tap into a little cold air and change things to snow again briefly.

It is something when you see Mt. Washington with freezing drizzle from a coastal low.

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, Wayuphere said:

I just got back from a 40 mile round trip to the veterinarians with the dog.  Most of the town roads were not plowed yet, with 3-5” of sleet acting like mud and pulling the truck everywhere.   The few cars I saw were off the road, either a heavier 4wd or AWD being a must. State roads and I95 were plowed which exposes the surface to the freezing rain..🤷🏼‍♂️

Still heavy sleet here in the sticks, but a sleet/freezing rain mix closer to Bangor.

Only about an inch of "potpourri" here. Roads are a bit greasy, but not terrible.  Driveway is starting to get icy, but not enough to snow blow. Probably going to have to make a few trips to the sand and salt shed.

[MDBlueridge]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well it is a balance as with most things in weather. Warmer waters allow for potential energy to be a bit more abundant when the right conditions arrive. The thing of recent unfortunately is the waters have been wellll above average across the east coast instead of just warmer. This pushes the baroclinicity further west and allows more warm air to ride into storms than previous times. The warmer waters also allow a better marine layer to set up and not get wiped away as easily which allows the warmer air aloft to be pushed further into storms. 

There are several reasons why this is a warmer storm for them. There is not a cold feed into the system the cold air behind it is tapped out as we are in the 50's around here today if we were in the 20's and 30's might be a little bit of a different story. Another factor is bad high placement. The high is off to the east of the system versus NW or N which would offer up a cooler flow to help feed cold into the system again another cold feed issue. Jet placement is another factor, while not in a terrible position it doesn't have a cold tap as mentioned so it tends to just drag in warmer temps aloft that allow this changeover to occur instead of fighting off the warming. The 900mb-750mb range tends to be greatly impacted by temperature advection. Hence why many people use 850's but we don't always get a great reading at 850mb to tell the tale so that is why skew t's are a wonderful tool to use when you have access to them and not one 50-100miles away.

The basic idea is without a cold air source where we have a high pressure feeding in cold on the back side of the system or have cold air already positioned in the region and a newly forming high off to north to help reinforce the cold wedge it is left to warming. The cold wedge also can enhance precip locally with a coastal front setup as moisture overrides that front and is lifted above the cold so probably another reason why precip overall is light to moderate which favors a warmer solution (a weaker coastal front). To add on the overall lift of the system at higher levels is rather marginal too so overall lift is not too strong not allowing for dynamic cooling and hence allows a warmer solution and lighter precip to occur. A steady light rain can be unfortunate with weak divergence aloft and a weak coastal front and not much cold air to begin with or behind the system.

[Sentinel]

2 hours ago, MDBlueridge said: