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January 13-15, 2023 | Winter Storm Potential


Penn State

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BTV has leaned a little cooler for our area with a possibility for a couple of inches of snow before this is done. Their forecast discussion is full of hedging words because a couple of degree difference is going to be the difference between a big rain storm and a snow storm for a big part of their coverage area. Our forecast is for raintostartturningback to snow after 8 am tomorrow. 

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Hires FV3 still 15° too warm.

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Probably not going to hit that 50° like it looked like. HRRR tops me out at about 35°.  This is pretty far better any guidance the last couple days.

  Maine, where warm fronts go to die.

 

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At 8 am we have 33F and rain. Radar is showing snow about 15 miles to my west. NWS is saying we go to all snow by 11 am with a couple of inches of accumulation possible. We've picked up 0.77" of rain from this system so far. We may have road issues later as there is much standing water on the roads. My dirt road was still icy in spots this morning. 

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It's one of those storms, that if you are not out there with a snowboard every hour it would be impossible to tell how much snow you got. 

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I'll have to take their word for it,  although I do think for general record keeping "Newfie legs" as a form of measure might leave room for interpretation. 

 

Currently 26.1° and still all snow w/ a few more inches on the way, depending on changeover. 

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Edit: Looks like I could stay out of the rain, per the NWS point forecast. Going just 5 miles south starts to show rain in the forecast, where I get a healthy mix. 

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8 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Uhhh @1816 Freakin Maine?

Shows how horrendously snow less this winter has been. Mainejay was talking about bare ground a few days ago. In January. 

 

And a 17 inch depth in caribou in January must be like a dusting for us non mainers. 

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Just now, 1816 said:

Shows how horrendously snow less this winter has been. Mainejay was talking about bare ground a few days ago. In January. 

 

And a 17 inch depth in caribou in January must be like a dusting for us non mainers. 

Like hey why can I still see my shed windows? 

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At 10:30 am we have switched from sleet to moderate snow with large flakes and a temp of 31. The NWS was correct with their call of rain switching to all snow between 10 am and 11 am.

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Way colder than anticipated today. A few days ago, they were talking getting up towards 50F. Peaked at 41F in the overnight. Temps currently at 35F. NWS saying changeover doesn't occur until 3pm though.

Local creeks are raging. 1.94" in the gauge.

Edited by telejunkie
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Find the cold front.  One side of the catskills is 53, the other is 32.  Olivebridge to Roscoe. is the 53 to 32.  About 35 miles, 21 degree difference, with very little precip in the area. 

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