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January 12-14, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


MesoscaleBanding

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The storm can stop it’s NW shifts now lol. It would be a good track for me if it can stay where it is on the GFS. Not sure I like all the ensembles so it probably will have a bit more western shifts but we’ll see. Another thing I noticed is the big warm up brought in after the system the models were showing has been muted a bunch.

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1 hour ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

The storm can stop it’s NW shifts now lol. It would be a good track for me if it can stay where it is on the GFS. Not sure I like all the ensembles so it probably will have a bit more western shifts but we’ll see. Another thing I noticed is the big warm up brought in after the system the models were showing has been muted a bunch.

GFS( more wound up draws in just enough cold air) vs Euro( there's not much cold air). After the Xmas storm tossing the GFS until inside 48hrs. If ens show it further NW would anyone bet against MSP from cashing in again. Already they are at 48" for seasonal totals

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

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5 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I think I'm going to be that guy that cashes in from another storm that had potential for OHV'ers. At this rate a low over lower MI seems like a legit possibility:

trend-epsens-2023010700-f156.sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.gif.65f1fc58eef9d035e3ece2e0f226291f.gif

The snow cover gradient baroclinic zone looks to be locked into a GLC kind of storm track:

854540297_1-7SWECONUS.thumb.jpg.802757169355cd1c5c4d6ceeef3fe048.jpg

Whoever considered a closed low in the middle of a torch as "potential" for the OV would've been off their rocker

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AccuWeather forecasters monitor snow prospects for Midwest, Northeast
Major cities in the mid-Atlantic could end a snow drought during the wintry pattern. Plus, the final wave of snow has the potential to be significant for parts of the Northeast next week.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/rounds-of-snow-in-store-for-midwest-northeast/1465139?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=AccuWeather&fbclid=IwAR1H6n14x7LyshXh08a5TC-SvmaI7LufdhmtnAhrhY5i_MmGremdiXiRKR4

 

LateNxWkStormTracksChan5Jan.webp

Edited by TheBlizzardOf1978
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8 minutes ago, TheBlizzardOf1978 said:

AccuWeather forecasters monitor snow prospects for Midwest, Northeast
Major cities in the mid-Atlantic could end a snow drought during the wintry pattern. Plus, the final wave of snow has the potential to be significant for parts of the Northeast next week.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/rounds-of-snow-in-store-for-midwest-northeast/1465139?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=AccuWeather&fbclid=IwAR1H6n14x7LyshXh08a5TC-SvmaI7LufdhmtnAhrhY5i_MmGremdiXiRKR4

 

LateNxWkStormTracksChan5Jan.webp 32.33 kB · 0 downloads

🤔

Screen Shot 2023-01-07 at 12.08.03 PM.png

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1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

GFS( more wound up draws in just enough cold air) vs Euro( there's not much cold air). After the Xmas storm tossing the GFS until inside 48hrs. If ens show it further NW would anyone bet against MSP from cashing in again. Already they are at 48" for seasonal totals

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

A NW shift is definitely a possibility but man that 12z GFS was money for me. It’s probably wrong though with the euro and CMC not supporting it.

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1 hour ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

A NW shift is definitely a possibility but man that 12z GFS was money for me. It’s probably wrong though with the euro and CMC not supporting it.

Your closer to my location then. Realistically this is a thread the needle situation with marginal cold air. Best hope is for a pattern change last 10 days of January into early Feb. May see a window of wintry weather then. 

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Interesting tidbit from ILN saying while the GFS is much slower, the other models are ejecting it too quick.

Quote
The next low will eject northeast through the Ohio Valley and
bring a good soaking rain beginning late Thursday. While the GFS
is much slower, the other models seem too quick. Tried to slow
the precip onset slightly from the NBM. Weekend forecast will
hinge on where and when the strong low crosses overnight
Thursday/or Friday per the operational GFS/. After this
uncertainty Friday, the cold air pushes into the region for the
weekend.

 

 

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