Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) EPS mean vs GEFS mean Edited January 5, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 49 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: those are purely cumulative snowfall #s recognized by each ensemble member and just to show how eratic each member is from run to run those far out.....member 29 went from 17'' to nothing. So the point being the ensembles are more for guidance and looking for trends vs. latching on to any individual member To your point, we went from 1 member having a big snow to 4 having a big hit and another (46) having 6". The trend is our friend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 12z GFS is a weak, warm, disorganized mess. 12z Canadian is a bit more optimistic, but still a steaming pile of garbage overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 closed low 🤢 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) hot messes all around Edited January 5, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: considering this is the ECM, I wouldn't say there's even a trap yet lol Speak for yourself lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: EPS mean vs GEFS mean Why in 2023 are these models so inaccurate? I have been looking at these weather models since 2009 and actually I don't see a lot of difference, this is 2023, I think the entire operation and function of meteorology needs to be redone and rethought, too many people are dying because of the lack of accuracy and preciseness, it's an f-ing guessing game and in some cases people's lives are on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 5, 2023 Author Share Posted January 5, 2023 (edited) LOL - just watch the deep south get a monster out of this crappy pattern 🤦♂️💩😂 Edited January 5, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Time for the ole NW shift 🤞 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, mafa said: Time for the ole NW shift 🤞 track isnt too much of the issue here, its completely closed off (and from cold air) in our regions vs. opening back up on the coast. 95% of people will get screwed with a closed low, but the 5% should go and play the lottery because it usually has to work out perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) First the Euro, now the Canadian. It appears that the GFS is up next to show a monster over the SE. 😀 Edited January 6, 2023 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 the GFS doesnt stay AS closed off as long on the 12z, pretty fluid situation but I-80 north would do ok verbatim that run of the GFS. Massive variances between models....joys of dealing with closed lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 surface low at the KY/TN border and rains up to I-80 🙄 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 the CMC is further north and warmer, it stays closed off compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) the GFS then lingers around before turning in to a monster stalled out interior coastal Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 Snow maps of 12z Canadian and GFS remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) if the CMC could recapture 12-18 hours earlier it would have been a big I-80 hit Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Hiramite said: Snow maps of 12z Canadian and GFS remarkably similar. certainly enough to keep slightly interested for now, but I seriously hate everything about tracking these types of storms, the snow zone is so incredibly narrow and hard to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) ICON similar thoughts Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: certainly enough to keep slightly interested for now, but I seriously hate everything about tracking these types of storms, the snow zone is so incredibly narrow and hard to forecast True….but at least we’re trackin’ during these meager times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 (edited) the GFS then ends up closing BACK off, and it rains up to Maine with ice in Candada Edited January 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 6, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: ICON similar thoughts Crazy this far out. Looks like I could get by with one multi-colored line on my Low Party Tracker, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 These bowling ball type lows can do interesting things. Definitely something to keep track of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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