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January 12-14, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


MesoscaleBanding

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Some thoughts from CLE.  They mention the initial melting and introduce a new term... a "healthy dusting". 🙂

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The forecast model guidance has been able to ingest helpful weather data from the upper air sounding network in the western U.S. being able to sample this storm system over the 24 hours now. We have seen a slight shift to the southeast with the overall track both with the deepening surface low as well as with the 850 mb low track. This trend is a little more favorable for a brief period of synoptic snow across northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania Thursday night. Initially when the flakes start flying, we will see quite a bit of melting on the ground, especially roads from the recent mild weather. Our temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30s when the snow switches over from rain Thursday evening and pretty much stay in the at or just slightly below the freezing mark into Friday morning. L Looking at some of the mid level dynamics on the backside of this robust storm system, we could see several hours Thursday night of moderate to pockets of heavier snow bands or least the snow may be coming down at a pretty good clip. We will see a healthy dusting to an inch, maybe two with the "system" snow.

 

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In looking at the 3hr-Temps on the 03Z SREF plumes, definitely a downward trend in the temps across N OH and SE MI (the few places I checked).  I don't know if this will help much at "game time", but it sure won't hurt.

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  • The title was changed to January 12-14, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm
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1 hour ago, SNOWBOB11 said:

Not sure what happened to 06z NAM but somehow it’s showing the system missing me to the south? Also looks more moisture starved until it tracks more north.

The NAM giveth, the NAM taketh, the NAM giveth…..

The 12z runs look good for you.

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17 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

image.thumb.png.1e3533e09f180e944a08d5599db79e72.png

The system is a day to day and a half away and the snow map from the GFS and icon is a difference of like 250 miles lol. Can’t make this stuff up.

Edit - I’m more talking about the bullseye area.

Edited by SNOWBOB11
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5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Already up to 33 mph winds/gusting 43. Still 4 hours away from the peak starting

Humidity is at 18% so that's certainly pretty low for these winds.

Fire Hazard type setup.....

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18z HRRR would make many of us happy (relative to how the last couple weeks have gone). Time to start leaning on the higher resolution models, especially with the very marginal temp situation that will make or break the snowfall outcomes. 

 

hrrr.png

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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