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December 29-January 3, 2022-23 | Tornado Outbreak | Day 1 & 2 Enhanced Risk


ClicheVortex2014

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  • Meteorologist

New round of storms is developing behind the warm sector convection... which is weird to say in January. 68 degree dew points make it past Jackson, MS and into southern AL, which has been essentially untapped aside from some weak convection.

YiznR9y.jpeg

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Still got a confirmed in IL.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
506 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

ILC039-032315-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230103T2315Z/
De Witt-
506 PM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN DE WITT COUNTY...

At 505 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Weldon, or 11
miles east of Clinton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Farmer City and De Witt.

 

 

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  • Meteorologist

Still have a 10% hatched in S AL. Worth pointing out that there's currently a severe tstorm watch upstream of the enhanced risk, so even without reading the discussion, that tells us that the tornado threat is expected to ramp back up tonight. Sure enough, SPC mentions that low-level shear is expected to increase as upper 60/lower 70 dew points maintain.

yMnKotP.gif

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0653 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

   Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA INCLUDING PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the
   Southeast, particularly from southern Mississippi into Alabama, far
   southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. A strong tornado may
   occur overnight.

   ...Southeastern states...
   The influence of a leading wave which moved out of AL and into GA is
   currently affecting low-level wind fields over AL, MS and LA this
   evening, reducing SRH in some areas. However, the main upper trough
   will move toward the MS Valley tonight, with increasing large-scale
   ascent over the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F to
   lower 70s F will maintain an unstable air mass ahead of a cold
   front, with a degree of air mass recovery possible over parts of AL
   and perhaps southwest GA. Numerous storms are expected to develop
   near the cold front tonight, with an attendant increase in storm
   relative helicity with 850 mb winds possibly to 50 kt by 12Z
   Wednesday over AL and western GA. Given the increasing wind shear
   and favorable ascent, storms may become supercells, either lone or
   within a broken line, with a threat of tornadoes. By Wednesday
   morning, the severe threat may extend as far east as southwest GA,
   and across parts of the FL Panhandle.

 

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  • Meteorologist
12 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Possible debris signature. 

Screenshot_20230103_200308_RadarScope.jpg

Screenshot_20230103_200302_RadarScope.jpg

I see what you're probably seeing, but that looks to me like the beam trying to get through the heavy rain, dropping CC values. Rotation looks convincing from this distance but I don't think that's a CC drop associated with a tornado

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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