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December 29-January 3, 2022-23 | Tornado Outbreak | Day 1 & 2 Enhanced Risk


ClicheVortex2014

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39 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Bengals-Bills game has been suspended because of this unbelievable situation. Holy s**t. So now I'm back to weather but geez. I'm not even sure if I can focus on weather

I think that the game has been called and/or canceled, but I can't be too sure on that part.

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2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I think that the game has been called and/or canceled, but I can't be too sure on that part.

It's unofficially canceled/postponed because the Bills equipment people were seen packing up equipment. There's absolutely no way anyone will be able to play tonight

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It's unofficially canceled/postponed because the Bills equipment people were seen packing up equipment. There's absolutely no way anyone will be able to play tonight

They officially suspended for tonight and will figure out when to finish it.

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Glad they finally made the right decision. Shouldn't have taken this long but whatever. Hopefully we get some good news soon.

Well, got a discrete/semi-discrete supercell about to enter Mississippi with a strong mid-level meso.

image.thumb.png.f8820014c8dc1bd5763d6a5c9108118b.png

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The 00z convection-allowing models have some significant development tomorrow in Mississippi and Alabama. The last time that the FV3 model had a lot of UH tracks near the Gulf Coasat, it turned out to be a good forecast. I can't remember if that was November 29th or not.

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1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

6z HRRR is something

floop-hrrr-2023010306.refcmp.us_se.gif

Crazy this will be our third long duration outbreak (I think?) this winter. Conditions should be favorable for tornadoes from mid-day/early evening all night into the next day it looks like. 

Edited by Neoncyclone
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Marginal area added to IL/IN with 2/5/5 probs.

Quote
 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible
   across the central Gulf States into the Tennessee Valley, with the
   greatest threat for strong tornadoes from southeast Louisiana into
   southern/central Alabama.

   ...Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley...
   A large and organized squall line extends from western MS into
   middle TN and central KY.  This line will persist through the day
   and progress eastward across east TN and much of MS/AL.  Occasional
   bow/supercell structures have been occurring for many hours along
   the line, and will continue to be a risk through the day.  12z
   soundings, recent VAD profiles, and forecast soundings show
   sufficient CAPE and relatively strong vertical shear profiles -
   providing a favorable environment for locally damaging wind gusts
   and a few tornadoes with these storms.

   Out ahead of the line, numerous thunderstorms have been developing
   across parts of southeast LA and southern MS.  Relatively strong
   low-level warm/moist advection and little cap are aiding this
   intensification.  Low-level shear is quite strong, but will slowly
   weaken later today as the primary upper system lifts away. 
   Nevertheless, the potential for several semi-discrete supercells
   will remain through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk
   of tornadoes (some potentially strong) and locally damaging wind
   gusts.  The strongest cells may also produce severe hail.

   Later tonight, another round of strong/severe storms may develop
   across MS as an upper trough approaches the region.  It appears
   likely that the low-level mass fields will sufficiently recover
   ahead of this activity to pose another risk of a few tornadoes and
   damaging wind gusts.  Storms will spread into AL before 12z.

   ...IL/IN...
   An intense 80+ knot mid-level jet max is currently tracking across
   western MO.  As this feature tracks across the primary cold front
   this afternoon over eastern MO/western IL, most CAM solutions show
   widely scattered thunderstorm development.  Forecast soundings in
   this area show cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear. 
   This suggests a risk of hail, gusty/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps
   a tornado or two with the more intense cells.  The activity is
   expected to spread into western IN after dark before weakening.

   ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/03/2023

 

 

day1otlk_1630.gif

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Despite being uncapped, RAP-generated mesoanalysis shows copious mid-level dry air in southern Alabama which will weaken updrafts and therefore storm intensity for the time being. That mid-level dryness weakens as you go north, so I'd expect that we can trace where the mid-level dryness is by where the warnings are. I'd imagine we'll see the mid-levels moisten with time today.

WgHjLjR.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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