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December 29-January 3, 2022-23 | Tornado Outbreak | Day 1 & 2 Enhanced Risk


ClicheVortex2014

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 2
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   335 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Arkansas
     Southeast Kansas
     Eastern Oklahoma

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
     1000 PM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify rapidly this afternoon over
   eastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.  These storms will pose a
   risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.  Activity
   will spread eastward into western Arkansas this evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Chanute KS
   to 65 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 23035.

   ...Hart

 

 

ww0002_radar.gif

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  • The title was changed to December 29-January 3, 2022-23 | Tornado Outbreak | Day 1 & 2 Enhanced Risk
  • Meteorologist
2 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

Boy the tornado watch covered this might not end up good tonight 

Low-level shear is going to increase in the coming hours. The developing convection in the new tornado watch is sluggish, but it's January.

Also, RAP-generated skew-ts show skinny cape with mid-level dryness especially in Oklahoma. That explains the sluggish start. But that's a temporary setback.

I'd imagine west Arkansas is going to recover via advection. East Texas is looking pretty unstable.

FeqlLqB.png

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  • Meteorologist

The storms east of OKC are producing a lot of lightning so their updrafts aren't struggling

The dominant supercell in N LA is producing an enormous amount of lightning.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-southcentral-sandwich-22_46Z-20230102_map-plot-glm_flash_noBar-24-1n-5-100.gif

 

Appears to be taking off.

image.thumb.png.1be28f1cf98ae20ce5f64cd04d229c98.png

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • Meteorologist
Just now, Iceresistance said:

Did I miss the storm chances? Or could the Dry Line trigger the final wave?

Cold front caught up to the dryline in Oklahoma but not in Texas fwiw. But I think you're gonna cut it close to getting something. Eastern OK seems more of a lock for multiple rounds

---

Max post-frontal gust of 44 so far here.

AHVvWVG.png

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  • Meteorologist
7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Did I miss the storm chances? Or could the Dry Line trigger the final wave?

 

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Cold front caught up to the dryline in Oklahoma but not in Texas fwiw. But I think you're gonna cut it close to getting something. Eastern OK seems more of a lock for multiple rounds

---

Max post-frontal gust of 44 so far here.

AHVvWVG.png

Looks like they trimmed you out of the watch, so there's your answer haha.

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