Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 Slight risk nearly as far west as Wichita now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Tornado watch to be likely issued. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma across the Arklatex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021734Z - 022000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing convection -- and a corresponding/gradual increase in severe/tornado risk -- across the broader Arklatex vicinity will likely require Tornado Watch issuance this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a steady increase in convective coverage across parts of East Texas, and northeastward into southern Arkansas. This convection is ongoing within a zone of low-level warm advection well ahead of the main upper system (now over Colorado). Weak height falls over the next several hours should continue contributing to an environment that supports an increase in QG-ascent-driven storms. A seasonably warm/moist boundary layer is observed across the area, with low 70s dewpoints across much of East Texas and into western Louisiana/southern Arkansas. While substantial cloud cover is limiting diurnal heating, gradual/modest additional destabilization will likely fuel the anticipated convective increase. This trend is also highlighted within some CAM runs, particularly including latest runs of the HRRR, which show substantial increases in both coverage and intensity of storms over the next few hours. While somewhat meridional/southerly, the deep-layer wind field across the area exhibits increasing flow with height through the lowest half of the troposphere. This is resulting in ample shear for organized/rotating storms. Gradual strengthening of the flow with time, as the upper system advances, will lend additional support to an anticipated/gradual increase in risk. We will continue to monitor convective evolution, with expectations that a tornado watch will eventually be needed across a good portion of the discussion area this afternoon. ..Goss/Hart.. 01/02/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Still a few hours away at least from the "main event" as the trough is still waay back and hasn't ejected, couple multi-cellular clusters and the first hint of a potential discrete supercell in AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Dew Point at my house is 64°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 Soundings across the area shows zero to negligible capping. Impressive EML observed at SHV and FWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Watch is up. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon over the watch area, with a few storms likely intensifying to severe levels. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the main threats. The risk is expected to persist well into the night across much of this area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Longview TX to 35 miles northwest of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) Large area with supercellular hodographs. Reminder that low-level shear is expected to increase later. Large warm sector for January 2, as well. Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 Storms are building west and south of SHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 These dewpoints are crazy for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 Today is the closest to rain we’ve got in a while. Can definitely see some virga, but based on our 12z sounding, won’t be surprised if there’s some rain reaching the surface after a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 59 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Soundings across the area shows zero to negligible capping. Impressive EML observed at SHV and FWD What does OUN show? Dry Line is now along I-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 There might be something down near Paris, AR. Tornado Warning on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 interesting to see that it's tornado watch #1, officially 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 South of Shreveport is starting to pop off. 13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: What does OUN show? Dry Line is now along I-35. Also a pretty solid EML with a saturated profile under it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: South of Shreveport is starting to pop off. Also a pretty solid EML with a saturated profile under it Ummm, would it be better if you can do a direct upload to this site? My School has banned Imgur on all of their devices, not Gifyu though. But wow, any storm that could go up has the potential to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Ummm, would it be better if you can do a direct upload to this site? My School has banned Imgur on all of their devices, not Gifyu though. But wow, any storm that could go up has the potential to explode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Looks like I'm about to get a tornado watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) I was not expecting things to ramp up this quick, new mesoscale discussion for the corridor the current supercells are running through. That one near Zwolle looks super impressive. Edited January 2, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) This supercell is strengthening at a quick pace. Something that looks interesting to me is the band of convection to its southeast. Kinda looks like a surface wind convergence band. Not sure if it is, but that's what it looks like to me. If that's the case, then there could be some enhanced low-level shear with it. Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Looks like I'm about to get a tornado watch Yep, so am I. I was afraid of that because the Dry Line is further west than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 There is no way that the Zwolle Supercell does not have a Tornado, the Velocity has a bit of a swirl effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 Central AR is gonna be worth watching in the next hour or so. Strong shear and storm mode should be favorable. The area is also getting some sun right now, though anvils are starting to invade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 I'm now under the Slight Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) A supercell is emerging at the end of what, imo, looked like a surface wind convergence band Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Tornado Watch has just been issued, 60/40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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