Admin Sentinel Posted January 1, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 1, 2023 Happy new year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 1, 2023 (edited) Greatest threat is, imo, pretty clearly in E TX and specifically the ArkLaTex tristate area. Great overlap between where CAMs have convection and where the greatest parameters are. Edited January 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 1, 2023 (edited) 12z hrrr has some warm sector surface wind convergence, providing semi-discrete convection in the ArkLaTex area. Strong tornado threat would go up to Fort Smith. Storm mode gets messier as midnight approaches, but still room for cells on the far southern part of the broken line. Gotta keep an eye on what happens with the squall because it looks like it lifts northeast in the morning hours, leaving the day 3 slight risk untouched. Nasty start to the 12z suite. Hopefully other CAMs don’t follow. Edited January 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 (edited) 18z HRRR hints at that squall pushing a bit north as Cliche mentioned to watch out for last night. Edited January 1, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 1, 2023 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: 18z HRRR hints at that squall pushing a bit north as Cliche mentioned to watch out for last night. Yeah I was about to post that loop. Tuesday looks scarier than tomorrow on that run. Warm sector is pretty far removed from the jet streak/tilt on both days but you can't sleep on days with trough positions like this. Edited January 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 1, 2023 Something to keep an eye on in future runs. 90 sigtor contour is being teased for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 1, 2023 Wild AFD from SHV. Highly impactful event for them This above fact introduces a bit of uncertainty into the forecast for tomorrow into tomorrow night as a potent upper level disturbance approaches. A good deal of synoptic lift produced by this disturbance and increasing southerly warm air advection into our area should get showers and thunderstorms going by late morning to early afternoon across central and eastern zones. This early activity will probably have available instability somewhat compromised by lower clouds, although at least 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE should still be present to fuel vigorous updrafts. The early activity will also not be occurring in the best "wind shear window" - which should be more in the time neighborhood of late afternoon into the early evening. All the above said, there will still be severe potential (hail/wind/lower-end risk of tornadoes) with these initial storms, while these storms will also be capable of dumping rainfall very quickly. So the severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center for our area tomorrow into tomorrow night has not changed, with a large majority of our CWA outline in an ENHANCED RISK with all severe weather hazards possible. In the Enhanced Risk area, the SPC still is highlighting a 10% percent risk of strong tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. The initial storms expected, as described above, will likely pose less risk of strong tornadoes than will be the case by late afternoon into early evening. At that time, there is decent high resolution model consensus of thunderstorms, with at least some being problematic supercells, breaking out in western zones near a dryline advancing just ahead of an approaching cold front. The wind shear environment in this time/space will be more favorable for tornadoes and other severe weather hazards, although fine-scale aspects of favorable hodograph curvature and also ultimate thermodynamic destabilization might be compromised a bit by earlier convection. This is the uncertainty alluded to earlier. But assuming these aspects are not too compromised, expect this severe activity to advance eastward through the heart of the region during the evening hours, eventually congealing into a line of storms (QLCS) in the Arklamiss vicinity toward midnight or the early morning hours. Once this happens, the potential for strong tornadoes should decrease, although the risk of some tornadoes embedded within the line will remain. All activity may not clear the region until after daybreak on Tuesday, but by that time the much more unidirectional wind shear will be lowering overall severe probabilities with the storms in the far southeastern portion of the region. Due to at least a few different rounds of convection expected from late morning tomorrow through tomorrow night, outlining a tight timing window of severe potential for tomorrow is a bit difficult. However, the potential for multiple rounds of convection, and an organizing late squall line slow to exit, opens the door for excessive rainfall - especially considering the air mass we will be dealing with should be very anomalously moist for early January. In consideration of these things, and the fact much of our region experienced heavy rainfall late last week, we have issued a Flood Watch for most areas (aside from far northwestern zones) from noon tomorrow through daybreak Tuesday morning. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is anticipated, but it will be likely pockets of 3+ inches of rain through the event which will yield the higher flooding concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 1, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 1, 2023 RAP is showing Monday's parameters on a larger scale on Tuesday. Of course, we don't exactly know how convection will evolve tomorrow. Could be debris clouds/warm sector rain that messes things up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 The HRRR UD Heilicy Swath has a noticeable west trend compared to other runs, towards me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 0z HRRR is pretty wild for the OV. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 21 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 0z HRRR is pretty wild for the OV. Wow. Makes you wanting to wish that you've never left the OV. But that offsets you being in Amarillo, TX being part of the NWS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Makes you wanting to wish that you've never left the OV. But that offsets you being in Amarillo, TX being part of the NWS! I'm gonna miss events like this in the winter and MCSs in the summer, but the spring will make up for it. Winter also isn't bad because the wind makes it interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'm gonna miss events like this in the winter and MCSs in the summer, but the spring will make up for it. Winter also isn't bad because the wind makes it interesting. Yep, that wind is always crazy in the Fall through Spring. Last Year was a different animal with almost nonstop wind! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) I've had the 4am shift for the past 5(?) days, but I have the next 2 days off. Good timing because I'll be able to watch radar all day, but I'm probably gonna sleep til just before the outbreak starts. Also, I'm going to have a serious conflict when the Bengals-Bills game starts. Only thing that SPC could do to surprise me with the outlooks for tomorrow is go high risk or slight risk. This feels like a solid enhanced or moderate risk event, nothing more nothing less. Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I've had the 4am shift for the past 5(?) days, but I have the next 2 days off. Good timing because I'll be able to watch radar all day. But I'm going to have a serious conflict when the Bengals-Bills game starts. Only thing that SPC could do to surprise me with the outlooks for tomorrow is go high risk or slight risk. This feels like a solid enhanced or moderate risk event, nothing more nothing less. The only thing that will trigger the High Risk is a sudden and very rapid increase of the instability. And the downgrade when the shear becomes very unfavorable. Also, why not have the NFL game on a different screen so the interference won't be as bad? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The only thing that will trigger the High Risk is a sudden and very rapid increase of the instability. And the downgrade when the shear becomes very unfavorable. Also, why not have the NFL game on a different screen so the interference won't be as bad? Agreed about instability, but also would need greater confidence for a larger window for semi-discrete/discrete supercells. I don't see that happening with this one. I'll certainly have GR2 and the Bengals game on, but my attention will certainly be split at best. Hopefully the event is winding down by the time that game starts. Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) Sounds like they considered a moderate risk but there's concern about storms weakening destabilization before the best overlap of the next round/storm mode and low-level shear exists. I've been up for almost 24 hours so my reading comprehension might be off. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night from eastern Oklahoma and Texas into Louisiana/Arkansas and vicinity. Tornadoes and scattered damaging winds will be the main hazards with these storms. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. ...South-central States... A strong upper-level trough within the Four Corners will eject into the southern High Plains and rapidly become negatively tilted as it pivots into the central Plains through Tuesday morning. A surface low initially within the Colorado Plateau will redevelop to the east/northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley region. Strong moisture advection is expected to occur overnight Sunday into Monday ahead of the surface low. Current surface observations show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are already as far north as northern Louisiana. Storms could develop this afternoon within the warm advection regime as well as along the advancing cold front. A somewhat complicated convective scenario is expected to unfold. A capping inversion evident on this evenings observed soundings should limit convection early in the day. The largest source of uncertainty is the potential for storms to form within a warm advection zone from the ArkLaTex into parts of the southern Ozarks. These early storms would still be capable of all severe hazards, but scattered to numerous storms could end up interfering with one another and impacting the environment for storms that would be expected later in the afternoon. Higher confidence exists in storms developing along the Pacific front and near the surface low from eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Observed soundings upstream of these locations sampled lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km. Strong shear profiles with long, straight hodographs will favor potential for large hail early in the convective cycle. Given the forcing, it is unclear how long storms will remain discrete, but isolated very large hail would be possible with sustained supercells. With the low-level jet increasing during the day, potential for tornadoes will exist with initial supercells and with circulations embedded within linear structures that will become more prevalent by evening into the overnight. Low-level shear will be strong enough to support some strong tornadoes. At present, the area of greatest concern for tornadoes appears to be from the ArkLaTex vicinity into central Arkansas. Should discrete storms form, they would move into an environment where low-level shear would be increasing with time. As alluded to, however, the potential for early warm advection storms to further limit boundary-layer destabilization keeps confidence too low for an increase in tornado probabilities in this region. As convection moves north and east with time, storms should grow upscale into one or more lines. 50-60 kt winds in the low levels will support potential for scattered damaging gusts, particularly in the Mid-South region. Guidance does show linear structures as far north as the lower Ohio River Valley, but cooler temperatures and more limited moisture will limit the severe threat with northward extent. Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 2, 2023 Author Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) I'll be curious to see what they do with the day 2 outlook. Certainly a solid signal for warm sector convection. 1-2 mean STP (blue) extends pretty far north, too. Edited January 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 51 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'll be curious to see what they do with the day 2 outlook. Certainly a solid signal for warm sector convection. 1-2 mean STP (blue) extends pretty far north, too. Enhanced area added in the south. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-South to the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible. The greatest severe-thunderstorm risk is expected from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and southern/central Alabama, where strong gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible. ...Mid-South to the Central Gulf Coast... A closed upper low over the central Plains and the attendant mid/upper shortwave trough will shift east toward the mid/upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. This system will be contained within a larger-scale upper trough slowly shifting east across the southern Rockies/southern Plains. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist from TX into the OH Valley. Morning convection is expected to be ongoing ahead of a cold front from the Lower OH Valley into northern MS and continuing southwest into southeast TX. Stronger and more progressive larger-scale ascent will be focused over northern portions of the area during the morning. Upper 50s to low 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints will contribute to weak instability amid strong shear. As a result, some of this activity may be strong to severe (mainly wind) from portions of KY/TN into the northern MS vicinity. Further south into northern LA and southeast TX, more cellular convection is possible during the first few hours of the period, but large-scale ascent will be rather weak across this area, and a minimum in storm intensity may persist through morning. Ahead of the large-scale upper trough, a lead shortwave impulse, within a sub-tropical jet streak oriented from the western Gulf of Mexico into the central Gulf Coast states, may be a focus for severe thunderstorm develop by afternoon across southeast LA into parts of MS/AL. Height falls across the area will remain modest until overnight. However, strong vertical shear will overlap mid/upper 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints (perhaps near 70 F south of I-20). Forecast soundings show wind profiles favorable for supercells amid 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Most CAMs indicate supercell development ahead of the main line of convection associated with the eastward-percolating cold front, and in the vicinity of a marine warm front. While some uncertainty still exists in timing and coverage, discrete supercells may produce a few tornadoes (some possibly strong). Additional convection is expected along the surface cold front, which will creep east/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from central KY/Middle TN to far southeast LA by Wednesday morning. Severe potential with overnight activity remains uncertain and depends on how convection evolves during the day, and how much airmass recovery can occur. Nevertheless, it appears possible some areas may see more than one round of severe storms on Tuesday. ..Leitman.. 01/02/2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) First slight risk in NE OK in Jan since 2020, hopefully we can cash it in Also the 12z HRRR is looking way more discrete for us, wonder if they'll move that 5% north Edited January 2, 2023 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 It looks like that the Enhanced and Slight risk will shift west towards me because the Supercells could be much more discrete here in Central Oklahoma compared to Louisiana and Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 I just looked at the dew point temperatures, it's 60°F outside. Which is INSANE for January standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 Been on mids so I haven't been active the last few days. Gonna head to bed soon but these latest HRRR runs are getting quite interesting here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 2, 2023 Not absurdly impressive, but still something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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