Moderators Hiramite Posted December 20, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, StLweatherjunkie said: It's tough to get snow accumulation on the lakes until they're frozen 🤪 "Details, details, I hate to be bothered by details". Lots of large tarps available on Amazon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 I had some drinks last night and threw in the towel. Pleasantly surprised this morning haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, MidMichiganWx said: I had some drinks last night and threw in the towel. Pleasantly surprised this morning haha 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hiramite said: "Details, details, I hate to be bothered by details". Lots of large tarps available on Amazon. Hurricane proof tarps? Just set them on the 30+ft waves? The devil seems to love details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 32 minutes ago, Grace said: That's the best the GEFS has looked for me & several of us the last couple of days. I can't post...in a hurry, but 6z Euro a tad SE. Actually east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, MidMichiganWx said: I had some drinks last night and threw in the towel. Pleasantly surprised this morning haha Keep drinkin'....lol.... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 FWIW, 6z ICON below. Didn’t see it posted but might have missed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 0z will have good sampling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Grace said: 0z will have good sampling. 12z will have partial, 18z even more and full by 00z Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 12z will have partial, 18z even more and full by 00z Once sampling starts 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, easton229 said: Once sampling starts Nice 100th page topper! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) Hope with the sampling and the closer we get to the event we see some increased moisture. Not looking for a lot but the trend in reduced amounts is somewhat concerning. Guessing that is also much more realistic than 18” of snow. Edited December 20, 2022 by ak9971 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 9Z SREF Plumes near my back yard. Look at that cold rush in (used averages of the members)! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 SREF Plumes snowfall showing each member: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Fantastic write up by DTX this morning. Didn't want to tie up this thread with the longevity of it, but here is the link for it. Just a quick text I would share... Given the trajectories of the upper level forcing, would not be shocked to see an eastward shift of the surface low track in future model runs. An eastward shift in the track could provide just enough cooler air and better midlevel deformation that would yield a quicker changeover to snow and higher snow amounts. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) SREF Mean placement Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanmkay Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) Also from DTX: Given the uncertainty of thermal field, the uncertainty of the precipitation type Thursday night/Friday morning, the uncertainty in the wobble of the potential vorticity structure, and the fact there won`t be PACNW sampling of the left exit region dynamics until this evening, will hold off on the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch this forecast cycle. Will stress that there is little question that we will need headlines because of the strength of the winds this storm will generate and the potential life threatening impacts. There is no question the primary concern for Southeast Michigan centers on the potential wind gusts of greater than 50 mph during the peak of the storm and impacts the high winds will create...i.e white-out, near zero visibility and potentially widespread power outages leading into the arctic air mass. Edited December 20, 2022 by ryanmkay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Hope with the sampling and the closer we get to the event we see some increased moisture. Not looking for a lot but the trend in reduced amounts is somewhat concerning. Guessing that is also much more realistic than 18” of snow. Unfortunately it often goes the other way. But who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 QPF. Definitely lacking in the moisture department. At least there is not much rain overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Grace said: Unfortunately it often goes the other way. But who knows. Yeah, even with this shift east, except for the GEFS cold sector qpf here has gone down quite notably Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 20, 2022 Come on, storm. You know you wanna. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, ryanmkay said: Fantastic write up by DTX this morning. Didn't want to tie up this thread with the longevity of it, but here is the link for it. Just a quick text I would share... Given the trajectories of the upper level forcing, would not be shocked to see an eastward shift of the surface low track in future model runs. An eastward shift in the track could provide just enough cooler air and better midlevel deformation that would yield a quicker changeover to snow and higher snow amounts. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1 Always nice to hear the words “higher snow amounts” when it comes from DTX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Yeah, even with this shift east, except for the GEFS cold sector qpf here has gone down quite notably Definitely will have to see what the high rez models bring for moisture. Hoping some lake moisture gets involved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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