Columbusbuckeye Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The short range models should start picking up on stuff like that Agreed. Around here it’s like hunting for a unicorn to cash in on lake enhancement. I’m not sold that it will play out that way, but it definitely would help beef up our totals if we can catch some of that lake moisture. Edited December 20, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, Columbusbuckeye said: Agreed. Around here it’s like hunting for a unicorn to cash in on lake enhancement. I’m not sold that it will play out that way, but it definitely would help beef up our totals if we can catch some of that lake moisture. Uk has it as well Edited December 20, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Uk Well that’s the first run in a while to give me snow so I’ll call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 20, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 20, 2022 Ah yes... negative wind chills with blowing dust. .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 Wednesday morning could have that fog/freezing fog potential that was noted at the end of the Short Term discussion. Looks like the warmer solutions are starting to win out for Wednesday, especially for the western Panhandles as a lee surface low is expected to set up and provide some downslope winds as well as pretty dry conditions out of the west. Now the winds will not be very strong, but they will still help mix warmer air to the west and central Panhandles. The east is still up in the air, and may be stuck under cloud cover until the cold front arrives that night, in which highs will only be in the 40s. Wednesday night the cold front that has been discussed for days is still on track to surge through the area with very cold temperatures and extremely cold wind chills. Latest update to the wind chills has come up a bit, but the overall message is still the same. Wind chills in the south -20 to -30, and wind chills to the north will be -25 to -35. Will not rule out an isolated -40 wind chill. These wind chills regardless of where you fall in the range will be cold enough for frost bite in just 10 minutes. This is extreme for our area. The most vulnerable to these wind chills would be: homeless, livestock, pets those traveling east to west (as the cross winds will be north to south), and if you don`t have a winter preparedness kit while traveling and become stranded. High profile vehicles traveling east to west will have significant cross winds. A Wind Chill Watch has been issued for the Panhandles from Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. Given how dry we`ve been, will not rule out blowing dust with this cold air mass. Also, while the chances are lower there`s still a chance that the northeast could pick up some light snow accumulations, but the main impact would be if the snow is blowing and the visibility could be reduced. Winds that were noted still hold with sustained winds 25-40 mph and gusts 40-60 mph possible. The strongest winds are expected to be in the east, and should occur in the 6AM-3PM time period Thursday. That would be well in line with 850mb 60kt jet streak over the east. Winds will finally start to relax a bit late Thursday night, but the overall wind chill values will still hold below 0F until after noon on Friday. The high temperature on Friday will only be in the teens to low 20s and we`re expected to drop back in the single digits on Friday night. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the western CONUS and warmer air under northwest flow will start to build over the Panhandles. Christmas eve will probably have highs only around freezing, with Christmas day expected to being the 40s to lower 50s, as we transition warmer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snow____ said: Well that’s the first run in a while to give me snow so I’ll call it a win. Same lol. Win for me that it got rid of the snow hole over Pittsburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Uk has it as well We need a N/NE wind to set up shop for about 6 hours. If we can get a low placement by Erie PA it would almost be perfect. Edited December 20, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Did anyone ever post a shot of all OV of 0z ICON using Kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Grace said: Did anyone ever post a shot of all OV of 0z ICON using Kuchera? I posted a 10:1, not kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 My two cents on the GEFS ensembles is the cluster I circled in red are the model solutions to pay attention to. The Lake MI baroclinic zone is just too juicy for this to go elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 20, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 20, 2022 Meanwhile in Hawai'i 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Ingyball said: Meanwhile in Hawai'i 120 mph!? 😳 I know it's on peaks but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, CIWeather said: 120 mph!? 😳 I know it's on peaks but still... The highest mountain on Hawaii is only ~700ft shorter than the highest mountain in California and 120 mph on Cali peaks seems to happen with most major storms Alpine weather is often on another level. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 20, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 20, 2022 Well the GFS does seem to be the dry outlier here, even the Ukie has about 0.2" for QPF and that's usually the driest for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 How long we looking at for the euro here, starting to get sleepy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Well the GFS does seem to be the dry outlier here, even the Ukie has about 0.2" for QPF and that's usually the driest for us. Very dry incoming air means short duration of PoPs and it's hard to get a lot of liquid out of that type of setup. There's probably potential for a localized frontogenic band of >0.25" QPF in your area, but it'll be difficult to pin down the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, ak9971 said: How long we looking at for the euro here, starting to get sleepy lol Probably about an hour before its in range. Starts running about 12:50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: Probably about an hour before its in range. Starts running about 12:50. Yeesh. So close at this point better start doing some solitaire lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Yeesh. So close at this point better start doing some solitaire lol 00z has initialized: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 0z Euro appears to be slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Fascinating to watch this unfold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Also tracks through NW OH now like the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 (edited) Further east too.. here's the last three runs. Edited December 20, 2022 by CrazyINwx 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, CrazyINwx said: Further east too.. here's the last three runs. I would say that is 75 miles or more from earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10:1 and Kuchera 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, CrazyINwx said: 10:1 and Kuchera I think it still has more moving to go yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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