December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[NWsnowhio]

7 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

If anyone else wonder what a sting jet is…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet

Quote

 

It is thought that a zone of strong winds, originating from within the mid-tropospheric cloud head of an explosively deepening depression, are enhanced further as the "jet" descends, drying out and evaporating a clear path through snow and ice particles. The evaporative cooling leading to the air within the jet becoming denser, leading to an acceleration of the downward flow towards the tip of the cloud head when it begins to hook around the cyclone centre. Windspeeds in excess of 80 kn (150 km/h) can be associated with the sting jet.[4]

Sting jets are generally about 10 to 20 kilometres wide. A narrow area of land may be hit by very intense winds of 85 knots (157 km/h) or more, but 50 km away there may be the wind speeds associated with a normal storm, of about 50–60 knots (93–111 km/h), making the damage from a sting jet very localised.[5]

 

Wow...so I guess I wasn't too far off in suggesting the wind might seriously explain the snow hole modeled over Toledo/Lucas County from earlier discussion. 🤔

[BoroBuckeye]

Did anyone notice the clipper that looks to turn into a tropical disturbance (joking—but it does strength on the GOM) on the 12Z GFS?!  😂

 

Alright, back to this storm.

Edited December 19, 2022 by BoroBuckeye

[MesoscaleBanding]

18z ICON nudging S/SE...

 

[Pghsnow]

1 hour ago, bigben89 said:

That 983 L right over my house, lol...

Just as long as its not right ovr AGC... 🙂 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

RGEM

 

[Grace]

[MesoscaleBanding]

5 minutes ago, Grace said:

A few more nudges like that from each model suite over the next 36 hours gets many of us back in the game. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding

[ryanmkay]

[Indygirl]

I can’t remember when I’ve seen SO many Facebook weather pages absolutely explode all at the same time like they are right now! 

[MesoscaleBanding]

...

[cperry29]

 

[Grace]

 

Look at those temps! 👀

East of Evansville, its 46 & in Evansville its -5.

[Central Illinois]

Just now, Indygirl said:

I can’t remember when I’ve seen SO many Facebook weather pages absolutely explode all at the same time like they are right now! 

its been along time since such a wide area has had the potential for 6"+ snow and 45-60mph winds 

[Ingyball]

WPC Day 3

 

I'd take this ICON run in a heart beat. First positive snow trend for southern Kansas since last night.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Hiramite]

Talk of dendrite fracturing among other things....

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 20 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 23 2022

....in part...

Northern and Central Plains through the Midwest/Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...

The presence of an existing wave moving along the Gulf Coast today
through Tuesday will limit the amount of Gulf moisture available
to the mid to late week system. Gulf moisture begins to stream
ahead of the system starting on Wednesday which will allow further
development of heavy snow bands for Thursday. Enhanced lift within
a deep DGZ for much of the central Plains and into the Upper
Midwest will support very efficient SLRs to make up for the lack
of initial moisture, along with surface temperatures around zero
behind the arctic cold front. High SLRs above 20 to 1 may be
short-lived for much of the central High Plains, as strong low to
mid-level winds above 50 kts fracture the falling dendrites.
However, the gusty winds (and extremely low wind chills) will add
to the potential for dangerous travel as visibility decreases and
blowing snow ensues. This system will continue to progress
eastward and become a large and powerful storm set to impact much
of the Midwest and Great Lakes with potentially heavy snow through
late this week and into the Holiday Weekend. Of particular note is
the slow motion which will allow for long duration of heavy snow
bands, particularly over the central Great Lakes.

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Hiramite

[Hiramite]

This time from the WPC's Extended Forecast folks....

(BTW, you can use the "code feature" denoted by </> in the legend to keep formatting of text the same as the source.)

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Dec 22 2022 - 12Z Mon Dec 26 2022

....in part...

The latest guidance continues to show much better agreement on the
expected synoptic scale set-up for the major Eastern U.S. low
pressure system. The 00z and 06z runs of the GFS continued to show
a slower and slightly farther south track with the main upper low
compared to the ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET, but the new 12z GFS run
(available after forecaster generation time) came much more in
line with the consensus. There also remain some track/placement
differences on the upper and surface lows as they track northward
into Canada. Some timing/amplitude differences, but the guidance
also seems to have a better handle on a shortwave tracking from
the Southwest to the Gulf Coast as well this weekend. For both, a
general model compromise seemed to work well as a starting point
for the updated WPC forecast. Another shortwave riding the top of
the Western U.S. ridge showed plenty of uncertainty around
Sunday-Monday regarding amplification over the central U.S..
Again, the main outlier here was a much weaker 06z GFS, but the
12z looks better. A blend of the ECMWF, CMC, with the ensemble
means worked well for this system. Overall, needed changes to the
previous WPC forecast were minimal.

 

[MidwestWX]

Messaging: engaged. Now time to sneak in the holiday party prior to potentially living at the office later this week. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

8 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Talk of dendrite fracturing among other things....

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 20 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 23 2022

....in part...

Northern and Central Plains through the Midwest/Great Lakes...
Days 2-3...

The presence of an existing wave moving along the Gulf Coast today
through Tuesday will limit the amount of Gulf moisture available
to the mid to late week system. Gulf moisture begins to stream
ahead of the system starting on Wednesday which will allow further
development of heavy snow bands for Thursday. Enhanced lift within
a deep DGZ for much of the central Plains and into the Upper
Midwest will support very efficient SLRs to make up for the lack
of initial moisture, along with surface temperatures around zero
behind the arctic cold front. High SLRs above 20 to 1 may be
short-lived for much of the central High Plains, as strong low to
mid-level winds above 50 kts fracture the falling dendrites.
However, the gusty winds (and extremely low wind chills) will add
to the potential for dangerous travel as visibility decreases and
blowing snow ensues. This system will continue to progress
eastward and become a large and powerful storm set to impact much
of the Midwest and Great Lakes with potentially heavy snow through
late this week and into the Holiday Weekend. Of particular note is
the slow motion which will allow for long duration of heavy snow
bands, particularly over the central Great Lakes.

 

hmm, interesting. sounds like the use of Kuchera could set up disappointment. Will definitely keep this in the back of my mind and instead of Kuchera I'll probably start looking at 10:1 and doing my own 15:1 assessment IMBY 

[RobB]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

hmm, interesting. sounds like the use of Kuchera could set up disappointment. Will definitely keep this in the back of my mind and instead of Kuchera I'll probably start looking at 10:1 and doing my own 15:1 assessment IMBY 

I tend to do that anyway.  Kuchera can be helpful but does seem to overdue things.  Go 10:1 then anything else is icing..Harder to be disappointed.

[Ingyball]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

hmm, interesting. sounds like the use of Kuchera could set up disappointment. Will definitely keep this in the back of my mind and instead of Kuchera I'll probably start looking at 10:1 and doing my own 15:1 assessment IMBY 

Kuchera doesn't do well in this type of cold anyways. The WPC curve that's essentially an adjusted Kuchera does a lot better. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

🥴

[Hiramite]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

🥴

Ouch.  You're gonna need one of these...

[Central Illinois]

Strong wording from NWS Chicago

[Ingyball]

This is pretty close to the curve WPC uses IIRC. The issue with Kuchera is that it never peaks, it just goes off into infinity as you get colder lol. 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Ingyball