December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ingyball]

15 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

That low track is great for me. Just too dry right now. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Not sure if this was posted already - I've been in catch-up mode all day. 12z Canadian Ensemble Track:

 

[junior]

Then you have the exceptionally awesome model JMA

[MesoscaleBanding]

Just now, junior said:

Then you have the exceptionally awesome model JMA

Apps Runner confirmed 😂

[Central Illinois]

Winter Storm Watches going up north of I-44 in MO

Edited December 19, 2022 by Central Illinois

[easton229]

3 minutes ago, junior said:

Then you have the exceptionally awesome model JMA

Ol reliable!

[SOMOSnow]

1 hour ago, Hiramite said:

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three different ones on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

Still think the tracks will trend South 

[Bradjl2009]

39 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

I've seen comparisons to the Blizzard of 1978. I had to look it up, but Pittsburgh received around 10 inches back then, so maybe they're on to something?

I think that was part of a different system actually. The blizzard of 1978 that hit the Midwest gave Pittsburgh only about an inch and a half of snow. It also featured eerily similar drastic drops in temperature.

[Harberr62]

Watches in Indiana. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

EPS compare

 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[CIWeather]

3 minutes ago, Harberr62 said:

Watches in Indiana. 

Which is funny because just about a hour ago, they said they weren't going to issue anything yet lol

[Central Illinois]

Current NWS alerts map

[BuckeyeGal]

From ILN:

Quote

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure pushes to our northeast on Wednesday, with a low pressure system beginning to strengthen as it moves on the lee side of the Rockies. Surface low undergoes strong cyclogenesis as we progress in time, which is the primary system to monitor for the impactful winter weather. Dry conditions expected through Wednesday and perhaps most of Wednesday night now. Onset of pcpn is more likely to occur early to mid morning on Thursday. Weak isentropic lift should offer some scattered rain showers during the daytime hours. Thermal profiles have started to trend warmer on Thursday based on latest model runs, with surface temperatures now favored to reach the 40s for most of our CWA. This will favor liquid rain as the primary p-type for Thursday. Thursday night into Friday is when travel conditions will worsen across the area. The good news is that there has been a pretty good consensus that the track of the low pressure center will remain just west of our CWA. This general track is not as favorable for producing copious amounts of snowfall, particularly for our CWA. There is expected to be a good surge in moisture just out ahead of the cold front that will increase rain shower coverage/intensity during the early part of Thursday night. As the strong cold front begins to push through, there should be a fairly rapid transition from rain to snow during the overnight period. A brief wintry-mix certainly cannot be ruled out during this transition period, but any mix will not be long-lasting. Rapid temperature drops will occur during this transition phase, which will be something to monitor closely as those wet pavements eventually drop below freezing and roads become very slick overnight. Wet snow will begin to accumulate overnight into Friday morning, but trends still suggest that no more than a couple of inches will be favored during this period. The story for Friday will then focus on a combination of dangerously cold temperatures moving in, accompanied by enhanced (and potentially damaging) winds, as well as additional snowfall. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day on Friday, dropping surface temps into the teens and even single digits by the afternoon for our western counties. As this occurs, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten and increase surface winds throughout the day. Winds will begin to gust above 30 mph pretty much everywhere, and will even approach the 40-50 mph range, especially across eastern IN and western OH. On top of this, additional energy pivoting around the back side of the surface low will allow for scattered snow showers to linger throughout the day Friday and persist into Friday night. This snow will be much drier and fluffier due to the colder and drier air, making it even easier to blow and drift around. The combination of all these factors will provide treacherous travel conditions due to the slick roads and reduced visibilities that may appear as "white-out" conditions at times for some locations. Sub-zero wind chills begin on Friday and will continue all through Saturday and even into the beginning of Sunday. Dangerously cold wind chills approaching -20 degrees during this time period will lead to an increased concern of frostbite and even hypothermia if exposed to these temperatures, even for brief periods outdoors. While accumulating snowfall and travel hazards become less of a factor on Saturday, the cold weather combined with breezy conditions will still be a major concern. Temperatures will begin to trend a smidge warmer on Sunday and the windier conditions will subside a bit, but some sub-zero wind chills or single digit wind chills will still be likely during the day.

 

 

[Grace]

FWIW, some differences on 18z NAM. Not closing off as fast which should make further east but we'll see.

 

[MidMichiganWx]

Honestly one of the worst storms I can remember growing up was similar to this with heavy rain followed by a flash freeze. One hour it was pouring rain and the next everything had turned to solid ice and the wind kicked up. We lost power for probably 4 days after that. Didn't really get much snow either, maybe a few inches.

This is going to cause havoc and even minus the snow if these temp/wind forecasts hold true. 

[ryanmkay]

From DTX afternoon:

 

With operational run indicating 850 MB of 75 knots, the potential scorpion/sting jet will bring the risk of damaging wind gusts, which unfortunately would lead to tree damage and power outages. Still uncertain if this feature will directly hit us however, could end up south of the border which is the direction the 12z euro came in with. Regardless, prolonged wind gusts in excess of 45 mph appear likely. Arctic air spilling in as we head into Christmas could make for a life threatening situation if any power outages take greater than 24 hours to restore. Frozen pipes could become a concern as well for the less than energy efficient homes as temperatures likely fall into the single numbers, but Lake Michigan should provide a good buffer from temps getting much colder/worst.

[ryanmkay]

Still way too early to project snowfall amounts, but even if one assumes the warm conveyor/trowal development on Thursday/Thursday evening will be a cold rain (max temp in profile reaches 4 C) or perhaps a little sleet/freezing rain, suspect the post low deformation and Lake enhancement will be supportive of snow accumulations in excess of 5 inches, assuring a white Christmas. A double digit snowfall total is still in play for parts of southern Lower Michigan as well, stay tuned.

[Grace]

Not that it matters but indeed a little SE of 12z

[RobB]

 

[MidMichiganWx]

1 minute ago, Grace said:

Not that it matters but indeed a little SE of 12z

Not a big deal but still a 100-150 mile shift. 

[Hiramite]

5 minutes ago, ryanmkay said:

With operational run indicating 850 MB of 75 knots, the potential scorpion/sting jet will bring the risk of damaging wind gusts,

If anyone else wonder what a sting jet is…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet

[MidMichiganWx]

Watches going up all over the place. 

[Pghsnow]

1 hour ago, Snow____ said:

Trying to find a lone member in the apps…. Don’t see one 😂😂

You have to wait until hour 84...