December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[RobB]

Just now, Central Illinois said:

that was easily one of the best storms of my life when I lived in Columbus 

Closest I was to a heart attack, shoveling that! 😮

[Central Illinois]

Just now, RobB said:

Closest I was to a heart attack, shoveling that! 😮

Ya it was insane...If I remember right I was without power for a few days 

[Bradjl2009]

2 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

that was easily one of the best storms of my life when I lived in Columbus 

Even though I ended up with above normal snowfall for that winter, it was pretty cruddy missing out on that and getting screwed with sleet during the Big East Coast storm the next month in January of 2005. 

[Ingyball]

4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Thanks!

While you're here, do you know the status of this product?  IMO it doesn't seem to be representing this storm correctly or is it too early for this event?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php

it's  a little early so likely just low confidence right now.

[Snow____]

25 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said:

For what it's worth:

 

But didn’t they just say…. nvm

[NWOhioChaser]

56 minutes ago, ryanmkay said:

Just have to laugh. Look at the circle right over Toledo. It never fails. At least were trending in the right direction. 

The hole over Toledo shows up quite often these days. I suspect it’s like an urban heat island effect or something.

[easton229]

Wonder if NAM will start to come back east some as well. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[junior]

1 minute ago, easton229 said:

Wonder if NAM will start to come back east some as well. 

I just want to see the 3k NAM shenanigans 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Snow____]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Trying to find a lone member in the apps…. Don’t see one 😂😂

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Snow____]

Just now, junior said:

I just want to see the 3k NAM shenanigans 

That goes out to 60hrs right?

[bigben89]

3 hours ago, Bradjl2009 said:

The Canadian and the GFS so far this morning have been promising IMO. Not as doomed as I was feeling when I went to bed last night.

I've seen comparisons to the Blizzard of 1978. I had to look it up, but Pittsburgh received around 10 inches back then, so maybe they're on to something?

[junior]

Just now, Snow____ said:

That goes out to 60hrs right?

Yea so may not see it till tomorrow. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Just now, Snow____ said:

Trying to find a lone member in the apps…. Don’t see one 😂😂

[bigben89]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

That 983 L right over my house, lol...

[Snow____]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

That’s all I needed to keep a bit of hope.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

I would presume these are the ultra slow solutions/ones where the digging was that that aloud the trough to move east 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

13 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

But didn’t they just say…. nvm

Michael will say anything to shut the haters up. 

[CIWeather]

14 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

But didn’t they just say…. nvm

There's a reason I have never even once considered paying for their service 😂

[Grace]

There are a lot of members that trended SE of OP.

Some of the best ensembles for my area & much of OV that we've had yet. That is of note for sure.  Here's a few that end up really good for several of us. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

12 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I'll take the 983mb over Zanesville, OH - please & thank you

[Hiramite]

With discussion of both wrap-around/backside snows and the Blizzard of '78, here's some food for thought.   The storm passed over Cleveland as a 958mb low traveling slightly east of due north. Youngstown is 60 miles ESE of Cleveland and recorded just 3.7" of snow the day of and the day after the storm.  Granted every storm is and will always be different, but getting significant snow from a storm passing to ones west is a difficult proposition.

 

Y-town weather records....

[TheBlizzardOf1978]

000
FXUS63 KIND 191931
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
231 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

Long Term...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

Thursday through Saturday (Impactful Winter Storm)...

************************
Highlights:
************************

* Slight southeastern shift in expected track of the low
* High confidence in dangerously cold wind chills and high winds
* Ptype initially rain before transitioning to snow Thursday night

Areas of higher confidence:
* Period of high winds (40-55 mph) Thursday night through Friday
* Extremely cold this weekend with temperatures near or below zero
* Dangerous wind chills to -20F to -30F Friday into Saturday
* Periods of light snow showers through late Saturday

Areas of lower confidence:
* Exact low track and where areas of heavy snowfall will fall
* Snowfall amounts remain very uncertain at the moment, higher
  confidence in accumulating snow towards Lafayette
* Timing of the temperature shift

*************************
Synoptic Pattern and Conceptual Model:
*************************

No major changes in our thoughts on the synoptic pattern with much
of the previous discussion below:

The overall synoptic pattern is fairly typical of an impactful
Midwestern winter storm. A very strong northwesterly upper level
jet, upstream of a trough will create strong negative height
tendency over the Intermountain West and Great Plains. The trough
will slowly become negatively tilted as the maximum vorticity
advection pushes downstream of the trough. Meanwhile, intense CAA
will simultaneously support upper level trough development.

Near the surface, the aforementioned CAA, and weaker WAA over the
Mississippi Valley will lead to an increasing pressure gradient.
This coupled with upper level diffluence will allow surface
cyclogenesis. Current thoughts are for cyclogenesis to occur over
the Ozarks, with a NE progression following the CVA and diffluence
maximum. Later in its life cycle, the polar jet will wrap around the
trough, creating peak levels of diffluence. This in combination with
a strong baroclinicity will create an efficient environment for
surface pressure depletion with a MSLP at 980mb or lower over the
Great Lakes region late this week. What makes this set-up quite
anomalous is the significant temperature gradient between the cold
and warm sector, aiding in the dynamic progression of the low.

This general idea has become more consistent amongst both
deterministic and ensemble member solutions. There is still plenty
of variability on low track, of which should improve as the cold air
mass and parent trough are better sampled through observations.

**********************************
Ensemble and Probabilistic Output:
**********************************

12Z model ensembles have remained comparatively consistent with
recent runs, but the deterministic GFS appears to be an outlier with
how far southeast the surface low is displaced from the ensemble
cluster.  This southeastern shift with the deterministic run is
leading to a return in the higher snowfall forecast from the model
with the warm air aloft and lake enhanced moisture over the
northwestern counties vs NE Ohio.  Leaned the forecast closer to the
ensemble mean to account for this difference between ensembles and
deterministic forecast. Will continue to monitor the ensemble trends
going forward and may have to adjust the snowfall totals accordingly.

Confidence continues to remain high on both extremely cold
temperatures and high winds in the wake of the low both Friday and
Saturday. Nearly all ensemble members have at least 20MPH sustained
winds on Friday, with most having gusts of at least 40MPH at times.
The extent of cold air will be influenced by any potential snow
pack, but lows at least in the low single digits look likely for
Saturday morning. The combination of wind and cold will lead to
dangerous wind chills, the coldest being Friday night near or below -
20. Any snow that falls Thursday night will also blow around during
the daytime hours on Friday leading to additional lowered
visibilities and hazardous travel conditions.

As the system occludes, moisture will wrap around the low. This can
be seen by an increase of snow probabilities Friday and Friday
night. Any snow that does fall will likely have significant drifting
leading to even further travel difficulties. Snowfall totals range
significantly as ensemble members struggle to understand the low
progression and evolution. The range of outcomes for snowfall still
range from marginal to highly impactful. There also is the potential
for a flash freeze as temperatures crash up to 30 degrees in a
matter of hours Thursday night.

****************************************
Conclusion:
****************************************

A deep low pressure system is expected to progress through the Great
Lakes region Thursday through Saturday. This will provide widespread
precipitation over central Indiana late Thursday through Friday
night. Initially, p-type is likely to be rain, but by late Thursday
night into Friday central Indiana will be well below freezing with
any precipitation falling as snow. The transition is expected to be
quick from rain to snow, but could see a brief period of sleet
during the transition.

Despite uncertainties regarding the potential winter storm Thursday
into Friday, there are a few areas where forecast confidence is very
high. No matter the track of the upcoming storm system, confidence
remains very high that some of the coldest air of the year will
arrive by the holiday weekend with temperatures potentially falling
below zero! Any snowpack will further allow temperatures to plummet
into the negatives and possibly into record territory. Along with
the cold air will likely be dangerously cold wind chill with values
possibly below -20F. High winds and/or snow could also lead to power
outages further enhancing the potential risks. Take precautions now
to prepare for the upcoming cold weather this holiday weekend.

Regarding headlines; after collaboration with neighbors, have
decided against a Winter Storm Watch or Wind Chill Watch with the
uncertainty as to where the delineation would be for the areas of
higher snow vs the cold.  Will continue the Special Weather
Statement highlighting all 3 threats and will reevaluate tonight.

Sunday to Monday.

Flurries will generally begin to come to an end Sunday into Monday
with continued colder conditions in the aftermath of the significant
late week system. Temperatures will begin to moderate going into
Monday as the CAA near the surface and aloft comes to an end but
will have to keep an eye on the next system that will arrive early
next week.