December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[RobB]

1 minute ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I suppose we'll have to wait and see. IMHO winds of 20-25 knots between the DGZ and the ground starts chipping away at ratios and by the time winds get to 35-40 knots it's tough to get anything above 12:1.

Of course, grabbing a sample and melting it down to determine ratios is something I would be too lazy to do...🙃

[NWsnowhio]

Digging through 1978 comparisons regarding the wind. If modeled gusts come to fruition along Lake Erie, they are certainly on par.

From CLE NWS: https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_78blizzard

National Weather Service wind instruments recorded the following peak wind gusts during the storm:

• 69 miles per hour in Dayton
• 69 miles per hour in Columbus
• 75 miles per hour in Akron
• 82 miles per hour at Cleveland Hopkins Airport
• 86 miles per hour sustained winds with gusts to 111 on Lake Erie reported by the ore carrier J. Burton Ayers

[Ingyball]

5 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I suppose we'll have to wait and see. IMHO winds of 20-25 knots between the DGZ and the ground starts chipping away at ratios and by the time winds get to 35-40 knots it's tough to get anything above 12:1.

It does appear in this setup for the Plains the strongest winds will be 850mb and below. Now the DGZ will potentially be quite large so the lower portion may get cut into, but overall I still expect to see some good ratios. We had a storm last year with 30 to 40kt winds that still produced efficient snow ratios of about 14 to 15-1.

 

 

[BuckeyeGal]

My Dad said he remembered being in the backyard chopping a hole through brush to allow water to properly drain out of the backyard because it was raining so hard the day before the '78 storm. They went to bed and woke up to it all frozen. It sounds.. scarily similar. I don't remember because I was in my Mom's belly. LOL.

[RobB]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

My Dad said he remembered being in the backyard chopping a hole through brush to allow water to properly drain out of the backyard because it was raining so hard the day before the '78 storm. They went to bed and woke up to it all frozen. It sounds.. scarily similar. I don't remember because I was in my Mom's belly. LOL.

I definitely remember the rains coming down before later in the night.  Next morning, we wake and see that our outdoor cat had tunneled from the cat house our back yard sliding door 🙂

[NWsnowhio]

Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

My Dad said he remembered being in the backyard chopping a hole through brush to allow water to properly drain out of the backyard because it was raining so hard the day before the '78 storm. They went to bed and woke up to it all frozen. It sounds.. scarily similar. I don't remember because I was in my Mom's belly. LOL.

I was not around in '78 either. But my grandfather shared how he had to tie ropes to connect his home to doors on all of his barns to be able to navigate from one to the other to feed livestock due to complete white out keeping him from getting disoriented in his own backyard/barnyard. Mind-blowing.

[Central Illinois]

Seems a little early but already seeing WSW going up out west

[Iceresistance]

49 minutes ago, junior said:

For once the NWS conus map will look pretty with all sorts of headlines(watches/warnings).

Anyone want a picture of it when it looks more like a Christmas Tree?

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

Seems a little early but already seeing WSW going up out west

What does that mean?

[ryanmkay]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

What does that mean?

Winter Storm Watch/warning. NVM I see what you meant. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by ryanmkay

[CIWeather]

3 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

Seems a little early but already seeing WSW going up out west

I'm wondering if part of it is because it is the first big storm for our area, is such a big storm, and is coming during the holiday.

[BuckeyeGal]

Just now, CIWeather said:

I'm wondering if part of it is because it is the first big storm for our area, is such a big storm, and is coming during the holiday.

This. We also haven't really seen a sticking snow yet in these parts yet this year (at least on the roads), so I'm guessing they'll make sure people are VERY aware.

[ncinthenext3]

6 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said:

I was not around in '78 either. But my grandfather shared how he had to tie ropes to connect his home to doors on all of his barns to be able to navigate from one to the other to feed livestock due to complete white out keeping him from getting disoriented in his own backyard/barnyard. Mind-blowing.

I do remember it.   It's all true.  Rooftop high drifts.......couldn't see across the street.  Looks like not enough snow though for this to compare other than potential for wind.  

[Ingyball]

The forecast will definitely be tricky here. May only get 1-4 inches of snow, but with winds potentially up to 60 mph for a prolonged period we'd still be going through blizzard conditions. Would be far easier if we could just forecast 6-8 issue a blizzard warning and be done with it lol

 

[NWsnowhio]

For what it's worth:

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

11 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

My Dad said he remembered being in the backyard chopping a hole through brush to allow water to properly drain out of the backyard because it was raining so hard the day before the '78 storm. They went to bed and woke up to it all frozen. It sounds.. scarily similar. I don't remember because I was in my Mom's belly. LOL.

 

9 minutes ago, RobB said:

I definitely remember the rains coming down before later in the night.  Next morning, we wake and see that our outdoor cat had tunneled from the cat house our back yard sliding door 🙂

good to see some things never change 44 years later 

[Hiramite]

8 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

Seems a little early but already seeing WSW going up out west

 

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

What does that mean?

 

4 minutes ago, ryanmkay said:

Winter Storm Watch/warning. NVM I see what you meant. 

I've always thought it would be beneficial to write WSWatch or WSWarning for clarification purposes.

[Central Illinois]

[CIWeather]

4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

 

 

I've always thought it would be beneficial to write WSWatch or WSWarning for clarification purposes.

I would definitely agree with that!

[RobB]

 

[Ingyball]

EPS is kind of like the Canadian. Only a handful of bad member but most of them have 1-5" of snow. If we can get that to 3-5 I'd elated.

[Ingyball]

6 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

 

 

I've always thought it would be beneficial to write WSWatch or WSWarning for clarification purposes.

So at the NWS we denote a watch as  a WSA and  a warning as WSW

[Bradjl2009]

47 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I hope this doesn't end like the Christmas storm of 2004 where Pittsburgh had nothing and Cleveland had 14 inches. I woke up to Christmas morning that year to a low of 5 with absolutely no snow on the ground. Temperatures that cold with no snow cover is as miserable as 35 and rain as far as I'm concerned.

[Hiramite]

2 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

So at the NWS we denote a watch as  a WSA and  a warning as WSW

Thanks!

While you're here, do you know the status of this product?  IMO it doesn't seem to be representing this storm correctly or is it too early for this event?

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php

[Central Illinois]

Just now, Bradjl2009 said:

I hope this doesn't end like the Christmas storm of 2004 where Pittsburgh had nothing and Cleveland had 14 inches. I woke up to Christmas morning that year to a low of 5 with absolutely no snow on the ground. Temperatures that cold with no snow cover is as miserable as 35 and rain as far as I'm concerned.

that was easily one of the best storms of my life when I lived in Columbus