December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[NWsnowhio]

Just now, ncinthenext3 said:

Uh, no thanks.  That's 80+ mph without doing the exact math.  Damage will occur and people will lose power.  Here's hoping that does not verify.

82.856 mph to be exact. 

[Central Illinois]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Big improvement in IL this run 

[Harberr62]

Just now, Central Illinois said:

Big improvement in IL this run 

Getting a little more deformation zone snow 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[easton229]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Lock that baby in 

[Ingyball]

28 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

With winds this high, ratios will probably be close to 10:1 regardless of temperatures. Cold temps and high winds favors small flakes that more efficiently reduce visibility, but don't accumulate as quickly.

It may cut into ratios some but not all the way down to 10-1. Probably around 15-1. 700mb and 500mb winds are actually quite weak during snowfall here, so it shouldn't mess with the DGZ much.

 

[Harberr62]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Not gonna lie. Much better in my neck of the woods. 

[JayPSU]

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I’d take it in a heartbeat.  4” with the crazy wind would be a sight to see!

[ryanmkay]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Just have to laugh. Look at the circle right over Toledo. It never fails. At least were trending in the right direction. 

[beaver56]

So, can we agree a bit of adjustment on the SE snow amounts after the 12z suite?  Obviously Chicago and others feel better as well.

[Hiramite]

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three different ones on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Hiramite

[NWsnowhio]

Just now, ryanmkay said:

Just have to laugh. Look at the circle right over Toledo. It never fails. At least were trending in the right direction. 

Probably that 80 mph wind blowing it out of Lucas County!  😆

[RobB]

Just now, Hiramite said:

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

I like the way you are currently showing these.  Thanks!  Good to see a bit of tightening up.  There will be slight movements but that is to be expected...

[WeatherJim]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

All three in one is great. Thanks!!!

 

[easton229]

1 minute ago, Hiramite said:

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three different ones on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

I like this layout. That Euro and CMC are right in stride with each other.

[BuckeyeGal]

2 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three different ones on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

Can you bring that Skittle snot swipe East of Ohio? 😆

[Hiramite]

3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Can you bring that Skittle snot swipe East of Ohio? 😆

Just for you BG.  The "new north" is up of course.

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Hiramite

[Jpfalcon]

7 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

Low party IMBY.

[Central Illinois]

8 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Things (the tracks) are tightening up.  The north end of the storm tracks seems to flattening out a bit as well.
12z runs.

Would you guys rather see the trends of each model on one sheet or do you like all three different ones on one sheet like below? In the Christmas spirit, I guess I can do if there is a demand/desire.  

 

The way your currently doing it you can compare the best thanks for doing these 👍

Edited December 19, 2022 by Central Illinois

[Ingyball]

Surface low track actually looks good for my area. Just need to see that upper energy closer to the storm to tap into better moisture.

[SNOWBOB11]

What does everyone feel about the wrap around snow the GFS and euro are showing? Is it really possible to get 9” of backend snow? Never really seen that before. The GFS almost want to develop a secondary low to the east euro just looks more like rap around snow but both drop heavy accumulation.

[RobB]

 

[Hiramite]

7 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

Low party IMBY.

You just reminded me that I've been forgetting to label my diagram as such...Low Party Tracker. Thx.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Hiramite

[StLweatherjunkie]

10 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

It may cut into ratios some but not all the way down to 10-1. Probably around 15-1. 700mb and 500mb winds are actually quite weak during snowfall here, so it shouldn't mess with the DGZ much.

 

I suppose we'll have to wait and see. IMHO winds of 20-25 knots between the DGZ and the ground starts chipping away at ratios and by the time winds get to 35-40 knots it's tough to get anything above 12:1.