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December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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8 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

Should I expect to cut the 9.9 inches thru 129 hours for Pittsburgh in half or more than half, maybe by 9.9? LOL

The Canadian and the GFS so far this morning have been promising IMO. Not as doomed as I was feeling when I went to bed last night.

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3 minutes ago, easton229 said:

It’s truly amazing how every single storm seems to hit SEMI with some type of dry slot. Even on the bigger storms there is always a prolonged period that SEMI drys out. Wonder if there’s science behind it geographically or we really are just that unlucky lol 

Lows are trying to mix up hot/cold air masses and the great lakes are a heat source. So I think lows try to get as much lake surface in the warm sector as the synoptic pattern allows. For SEMI in particular, I think the Wisconsin/Lake MI interface sets up a favorable baroclinic zone that draws lows farther west that then 'jump' to Lake Huron (north of you). As the synoptic pattern moves farther east, the East Coast becomes the more favorable baroclinic zone because Erie and Ontario are relatively small. This kind of screws SEMI in most situations 😕

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Didn't the 2004 Christmas Storm really change as it progressed closer to the event?  I can remember it starting as a 3 to 6 incher and morphing into 20 plus in my area in about 48 hours.  By no means am I say that is what is at stake here, but for some reason I remember that being the case.

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2 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Lows are trying to mix up hot/cold air masses and the great lakes are a heat source. So I think lows try to get as much lake surface in the warm sector as the synoptic pattern allows. For SEMI in particular, I think the Wisconsin/Lake MI interface sets up a favorable baroclinic zone that draws lows farther west that then 'jump' to Lake Huron (north of you). As the synoptic pattern moves farther east, the East Coast becomes the more favorable baroclinic zone because Erie and Ontario are relatively small. This kind of screws SEMI in most situations 😕

Thanks for the quick lesson!

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Just now, Columbusbuckeye said:

967 would really be something.  I'm not sure I wish that upon everyone with Christmas coming up.  

Imagine explaining to children why Santa and his reindeer are flying down the street in the middle of the morning.

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  • Meteorologist

At the surface the models have improved with the timing of the cold. The 500mb pattern just hasn't caught up yet to what will be seen at the surface. So I still expect to see that upper trough dig more.

 

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GFS definitely a little more amped with an easterly shift of about 350 miles (not insignificant). Fingers crossed this continues a little more. As wind and cold is a given, it would be nice for that wind to have something to blow around here.

trend-gfs-2022121912-f093.prateptype_cat.conus.gif

Edited by Blitz
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6 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

Now I’m randomly thinking about all the Christmas decorations blowing around the neighborhood like projectiles.

yes, 8 foot frosty will not be making an appearance during Christmas 😞 I already had to buy him a new fuse because of the 20-30 MPH winds a couple days ago we had and accidentally forgot to unplug him

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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5 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

Now I’m randomly thinking about all the Christmas decorations blowing around the neighborhood like projectiles.

We have 100k lights. Trust me, the stress is real. I am one of those weirdos who waste time putting them out. 

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Just now, beaver56 said:

We have 100k lights. Trust me, the stress is real. I am one of those weirdos who waste time putting them out. 

 

Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

yes, 8 foot frosty will not be making an appearance during Christmas 😞 I already had to buy him a new fuse because of the 20-30 MPH winds a couple days ago we had and accidentally forgot to unplug him

lets talk hahahaha

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2 minutes ago, Blitz said:

GFS definitely a little more amped with an easterly shift. Fingers crossed this continues a little more. As wind and cold is a given, it would be nice for that wind to have something to blow around here.

trend-gfs-2022121912-f093.prateptype_cat.conus.gif

Not sure if it's east as it is just faster with the arctic front and associated energy. The low track still looks about the same if you plot it out from the 6z run.

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3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

 

lets talk hahahaha

Not the best picture, but my house is in the red circle.  It is about 2 acres worth.  I need help!

Screenshot_20221217_201157_Gallery.jpg

Edited by beaver56
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11 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

At the surface the models have improved with the timing of the cold. The 500mb pattern just hasn't caught up yet to what will be seen at the surface. So I still expect to see that upper trough dig more.

 

 

I totally agree. With the tele's that alone makes since as well. 

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