December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[MidwestWX]

12 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

NWS meteorologists are expected to either 1) violate their own watch/warning product suggestions to travel into work or 2) heed NWS suggestions and sleep at the office until travel conditions improve

I think I heard two mets in Duluth spent almost 60 hours at the office before going home with last weeks storm.

Correct. Duluth apparently has a snow plow problem but kudos to the DLH WFO for their support.

With the shift toward the western solution I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant, potentially historical impacts across I-90 corridor.

[MidMichiganWx]

Ahh yes, the super accurate long-range NAM. 

Y'all are hilarious lol

[StLweatherjunkie]

1 minute ago, MidwestWX said:

Correct. Duluth apparently has a snow plow problem but kudos to the DLH WFO for their support.

With the shift toward the western solution I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant, potentially historical impacts across I-90 corridor.

The lead on duty today called the US Coast Guard to tell them about the potential for hurricane force gusts on the lake and that he hasn't seen anything like this storm UP here in his 20 year career. 

The timing of this storm right before Xmas is less than ideal, you know people are still gonna try to travel to grandmas house ...

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GFS and NAM really aren't that different. That being said I'm not sure why some feel the need to feast off of others disappoint in here 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[MidwestWX]

14 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Folks needs to stop treating Tropical Tidbits surface low algorithm like it's gospel ... it's pretty clear there's still a low pressure in Oklahoma here. Just because the red "L" is analyzed in New Mexico means nothing. 

Yes!

The algorithm on any site is simply interpreting the lowest SFC pressure in a region and slapping an L over it. This scenario is influenced by higher terrain over E NM. If you look at the where the actual sfc low center is it's over OK.

 

While it can be a great visual aid, it's not often correct in situations where you have a larger area of low pressure or a coastal transfer type system. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by MidwestWX
Additional details.

[MidwestWX]

4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

The lead on duty today called the US Coast Guard to tell them about the potential for hurricane force gusts on the lake and that he hasn't seen anything like this storm UP here in his 20 year career. 

The timing of this storm right before Xmas is less than ideal, you know people are still gonna try to travel to grandmas house ...

We're having a conversation about watch products for our CWA for this exact reason. I-90 is not a great road to be on with blizzard conditions. I'm even more worried about how much "light" snow we'll get prior to the wind kicking in. My initial concern from a few days ago is looking even more concerning with how the 00z models trended.

[Grace]

After seeing the NAM, it bodes well for those hoping for an east shift. The NAM has a massive NW bias with systems like this outside of 36hrs. We have this discussion every winter.

There will be shifts. It's not going to hold for 72 hrs. Lol. What will the shifts be? 🤔 

[junior]

06z EPS snapshot of the mean and members. Some of the extreme NW members removed from 0z

[CIWeather]

4 minutes ago, Grace said:

After seeing the NAM, it bodes well for those hoping for an east shift. The NAM has a massive NW bias with systems like this outside of 36hrs. We have this discussion every winter.

There will be shifts. It's not going to hold for 72 hrs. Lol. What will the shifts be? 🤔 

This! Always good when Grace comes in and provides a little bit of sanity and calming 🙂 Of course, there is always that time when the NAM could be right at this juncture 😂

[DJKuo]

For those on the SE side of the low talking about flash freeze while there’s definitely a strong risk for that happening, my experience with these kind of events usually unfolds where the flash freeze is not that bad because of how windy it is right after the precip ends and the wind tends to wick up most of the moisture on roads before the flash freeze gets really bad. 

[Pros3lyte]

1 minute ago, DJKuo said:

For those on the SE side of the low talking about flash freeze while there’s definitely a strong risk for that happening, my experience with these kind of events usually unfolds where the flash freeze is not that bad because of how windy it is right after the precip ends and the wind tends to wick up most of the moisture on roads before the flash freeze gets really bad. 

Good point. My biggest worry is saturated tree branches flash freezing then getting blasted by that high wind knocking out power. 

That and of course the inability to pre-treat roads. That's gonna be a nightmare. 

[RobB]

Just now, DJKuo said:

For those on the SE side of the low talking about flash freeze while there’s definitely a strong risk for that happening, my experience with these kind of events usually unfolds where the flash freeze is not that bad because of how windy it is right after the precip ends and the wind tends to wick up most of the moisture on roads before the flash freeze gets really bad. 

So true.  It is more of an issue with standing water areas.  Now, if lighter snows start to fall before the drying off of roads with falling temps, there can be issues.  I do find the "Flash Freeze!" verbage tends to be less an issue in reality.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

1 minute ago, junior said:

06z EPS snapshot of the mean and members. Some of the extreme NW members removed from 0z

this is more of an in our backyards reply, but I've forfeited the initial low track, however whats important for us now is what does it do AFTER its finally starts bombing out over IN/MI (or IL). thats where the members start to get haywire. 96-102 are probably our most important frames for any phantom fairtale backside/ULL feature snow

[RobB]

Hour 90 ICON FWIW

[Grace]

This is me until 0z runs tomorrow night. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Given I've accepted the low will track west of here.....

I have NEVER in my life....been rooting for a track to move back from Chicago back over to Detroit and still felt I was in the game lol

 

That's what we're dealing with here, a track from Indy to Detroit would produce

Edited December 19, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[RobB]

Just now, Grace said:

This is me until 0z runs tomorrow night. 

I look at them all.  I just do not emotionally attach myself to any of them 🙂

[JayPSU]

I mean, I get the nothing is set in stone logic.  I really do.  But for those of us in Central Ohio, we need like a 400-500 mile + correction.  It’s just not going to happen at this point.  Not to be a Debbie downer.  😊

[easton229]

Just now, JayPSU said:

I mean, I get the nothing is set in stone logic.  I really do.  But for those of us in Central Ohio, we need like a 400-500 mile + correction.  It’s just not going to happen at this point.  Not to be a Debbie downer.  😊

It was showing as a nor Easter a couple days ago so there’s a chance lol

[RobB]

What would disappoint me if the storm ends up as a 990 slp 'Meh' without a huge influx of cold air 🙂

[Columbusbuckeye]

I wasn’t around for the blizzard of 78, but my dad worked for ODOT and has told me many stories about it.

Columbus received less than 5 inches of snowfall from that event and it was incredibly impactful. Im not saying this one will even be remotely close to that system, but just wanted to point out that was a situation where there was a “flash freeze” with backside snow as well.  It’s not always a phantom set up.  😉

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

I mean, I get the nothing is set in stone logic.  I really do.  But for those of us in Central Ohio, we need like a 400-500 mile + correction.  It’s just not going to happen at this point.  Not to be a Debbie downer.  😊

yeah 100%, but as long as we can manage to be south of the low before it moves north of the GLs, we will catch the southern portion of snows. But we have to go back to a low over central MI/Detroit, which is a not so substantial shift

 

 

[RobB]

Just now, Columbusbuckeye said:

I wasn’t around for the blizzard of 78, but my dad worked for ODOT and has told me many stories about it.

Columbus received less than 5 inches of snowfall from that event and it was incredibly impactful. Im not saying this one will even be remotely close to that system, but just wanted to point out that was a situation where there was a “flash freeze” with backside snow as well.  It’s not always a phantom set up.  😉

 

I was 8 and a half during when the Blizzard of '78 hit.  It was this that got me into meteorology!  That was some storm!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

this is not a good start (for Ohio)

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Indygirl]

1 minute ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

I wasn’t around for the blizzard of 78, but my dad worked for ODOT and has told me many stories about it.

Columbus received less than 5 inches of snowfall from that event and it was incredibly impactful. Im not saying this one will even be remotely close to that system, but just wanted to point out that was a situation where there was a “flash freeze” with backside snow as well.  It’s not always a phantom set up.  😉

 

I was in high school. I only remember the snow, the drama, and all that. 
I don’t recall any of the flash freezing.