easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 And we get to enjoy another cutter a week later too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 32 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: IMHO, it kind of feels like the models did figure it out ... the Euro was right two days ago 😄 22 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Local mets on board with the western track. Wind and cold will be a bigger story here than precip. Those set up to get blasted, enjoy! Oh, so when things go west it’s more believable than a correction east when it hasn’t been sampled yet? hoping storm trends weaker so it does come back east a bit. Getting dry slotted would suck big time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Henry's update FWIW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Oh, so when things go west it’s more believable than a correction east when it hasn’t been sampled yet? hoping storm trends weaker so it does come back east a bit. Getting dry slotted would suck big time. The Euro has provided very similar solutions for 5 consecutive model runs. There seems to now be relatively good agreement amongst all the major models so I'm not sure there's room for major track changes. I very much doubt the low will track farther east than across Lake Huron, but southern Lake MI seems like a more favorable baroclinic zone considering the spatially continuous and dense Wisconsin snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I guess the one consolation is that whatever snow does fall won’t have a hard time accumulating with the flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Here's the GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Oh, so when things go west it’s more believable than a correction east when it hasn’t been sampled yet? hoping storm trends weaker so it does come back east a bit. Getting dry slotted would suck big time. Probably be some minor eastern corrections as things get better sampled later today and tomorrow, but it's looking like we're in for a cold rain, dry slotting, and then marginal back end snows that will probably bust knowing our luck. Winter around here only exists now in February unfortunately. We haven't had a good thump outside of it in what seems like a few years now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, CrazyINwx said: Here's the GEFS mean This map looks different, more West to East snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said: Probably be some minor eastern corrections as things get better sampled later today and tomorrow, but it's looking like we're in for a cold rain, dry slotting, and then marginal back end snows that will probably bust knowing our luck. Winter around here only exists now in February unfortunately. We haven't had a good thump outside of it in what seems like a few years now. Don’t know whether to agree with you and/or barf. So alas I’ll do both! This looking more and more like a 2-4” nuisance event with a flash freeze. And major dry slotting Edited December 19, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) Ensemble trends are pointing towards a low pressure track further to the NW. More consistency is needed to increase confidence, but this would lead to warmer temperatures and rain initially on Thursday before the arrival of cold air, high winds and snow. #INwx https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/inwx?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUmPpJYfuZlJ1I0AlkPiD84CO0GdudtOnj2z-UcQjgyfgzYEyYl_1YyvvLsQ1ujKFbiApuRm--y8E3T3bhoSJusfHBfOopYgdXmUev0N1PuZ_S20VYwvj58ip4VNyp1yC8CK6E0Ke6VL__sY5v8Uhujsyd8IuK0MktFplqSeQi04Kib_E4qILaoa6p77fCOxUk&__tn__=*NK-R Edited December 19, 2022 by TheBlizzardOf1978 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 0Z Suite. (06z GFS not included) xxx/xxx represents a stalled low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Here's the NWS blend of models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, TheBlizzardOf1978 said: Ensemble trends are pointing towards a low pressure track further to the NW. More consistency is needed to increase confidence, but this would lead to warmer temperatures and rain initially on Thursday before the arrival of cold air, high winds and snow. Are these your own words? If not, please provide/note source. Thx. Edit: I see you added the source, thank you. Edited December 19, 2022 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 There’s still plenty of time for changes. What I do not want to see is piles of rain flash freezing and everything turning to a block of ice. But I guess that’s looking to be the case here in Indy 😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, CIWeather said: Henry's update FWIW... Interesting graphic. I’ve not heard of “Weather Madness “ site before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: Let's go ahead and lock that in about 100 miles or so WSW and thanks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Indygirl said: Interesting graphic. I’ve not heard of “Weather Madness “ site before? It's Henry Margusity's (sp?) weather page. Formerly of AccuWeather. He can be a bit hyperbolic with his forecasts / discussions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 14 minutes ago, CrazyINwx said: Here's the NWS blend of models I’d take it in a heartbeat. Give me a solid white ground and I’m good. Really stinks for the Eastern Ohio members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, CrazyINwx said: Here's the NWS blend of models Can you post the Snow Depth as well?...which might be more representative in this case for some locations east of the track. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, RobB said: It's Henry Margusity's (sp?) weather page. Formerly of AccuWeather. He can be a bit hyperbolic with his forecasts / discussions. Ah. Ok, thank you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Indygirl said: Ah. Ok, thank you! You are very welcome! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadioWX Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, RobB said: One of the lucky few in the dark blue and dark pink. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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