Pros3lyte Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Psu1313 said: Tomorrow I’ll pull out the upper levels and show you what is happening. The whole scenario is built on arctic air dropping down with a piece of energy and carving a trough. The position of this trough is the driver for the position of the low because as the energy hits the base, a powderkeg is set off between the very cold, dry air to the northwest and the comparably warm moist air to the southeast. The low will feed on this and move north northeast from the base of the trough until the trough turns negative. The biggest misnomer that I have read so far is that the low cannot be that far west due to how much cold there is coming in. It is more about position and size of the wave. Think of physics class and the slinky wave example. The deeper your wave, the higher your heights will be out front which will make it look like the SER is flexing, but that’s not really the case. For a good look at this take the GFS 0z hour 60 500mb with our energy entering northern Washington, look how flat the flow is. Then look at hour 96 and the trough that has been carved. I appreciate the insight!! I watched Bernie’s live today and he talked a lot about the Upper Level energy- the visualization helped a lot. I’m looking forward to learning more! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Lets see if this is the maximum NW extent... then we waver back and forth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 0z GEFS mean with huge 10:1 ratio totals over monster area. We just need them further S/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 00z NWS blend of models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) It’s too early to get worked up one way or another just yet. This system appears to be trending towards being a monster and incredibly potent. Even the areas that are on the eastern edge appear to be in line for some healthy backside accumulations, along with blizzard criteria winds. I’ve been around on these boards to witness some intense arctic front rates with some of you. My hunch says in a worst case scenario most of us will still see serious rippage when the front passes, leading to quick accumulations and whiteout conditions. Best case scenario is obviously much more. Regardless, Friday/Saturday appear to be two of the most interesting weather days we’ve had in a while. My advice is to grab a beer and some popcorn and enjoy the show. 🍻🍿 Edited December 19, 2022 by Columbusbuckeye 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 All sarcasm and general roller coaster feelings aside, this is absolutely fascinating to track. Regardless of where this monster goes, I’m totally in it for the long haul just to see how this thing evolves and to learn from it. I don’t know about all of you, but I’m pretty sure a lot of us are here because we love the unpredictability, the science, the guessing, and seeing the results and sheer power and awe that Mother Nature provides. That said…tonight’s trends suck. 😉 But I’m sure there are still more to be had with this one. See ya next round! 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) Most of us in here feeling like Clark Griswald getting screwed on his bonus and heading right to that spiked eggnog bowl. What we need to be doing is being like Eddie and grabbing a stratosphere sized camper and dragging that sumbitch right into our living rooms! 😂 I’m going to wait it out, there’s obviously something afoot when the energy isn’t even sampled yet. Edited December 19, 2022 by NWOhioChaser 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) Oz gefs ensemble mean 10:1 wow!!! Pretty much unheard of for that much area and that heavy for ensemble average at 10::1 Edited December 19, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Talk about a crazy west shift! From east coast to now Chicago. 🙄😱 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 00z Ukmet trended south from 12z Edited December 19, 2022 by Central Illinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Not to be a pessimist but this storm now cutting way west followed by what looks like at least a 5 day warm up taking us to the end of December. Definitely didn’t think things were going to turn out this way several days ago. 1/3rd of winter basically going to be a bust when the pattern the LR models were showing looked like it was going to be solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Given the crazy strength of that artic high this storm still could trend back east but given our luck the past several decembers the gfs might be right🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just 48 hours ago. I'm not letting it go... It will trend back the next 48 hours...name it claim it🤣 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Not to be a pessimist but this storm now cutting way west followed by what looks like at least a 5 day warm up taking us to the end of December. Definitely didn’t think things were going to turn out this way several days ago. 1/3rd of winter basically going to be a bust when the pattern the LR models were showing looked like it was going to be solid. If this storm really does cut west then this December will be an all time epic bust by Bastardi. Yikes! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I'm going to bed. 😆😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Anyone sticking around for euro heartbreak!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Anyone sticking around for euro heartbreak!? I’ll likely stay up. Have faith, folks! 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said: I’ll likely stay up. Have faith, folks! 😉 Yeah I’ve been through enough of these now to know not to get caught up in the run to run swings until we’re 48-72 hours in. About monitoring trends currently and while they don’t look good going back the other direction is not out of the question. My bet would be the low tracks somewhere up the Ohio Indiana border and majority of the group gets decent coverage. Not the 2’ monster projected a few days ago for Ohio but will still get some decent snow out of it. Whoever is just west of the low will get the storm of a lifetime with the rates and winds currently projected! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, NeXrad said: oh he's my go to guy he just always has a silver lining to every run...everyone here knows who I don't like Got you. I think I know who that is 😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 43 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Just 48 hours ago. I'm not letting it go... It will trend back the next 48 hours...name it claim it🤣 Don’t even have to go that far 0Z last night was great too but sure where you are located… I’m guessing E.Ohio or Pennsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Once again Euro doesn't appear to be budging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) It came south by like 50 miles in Indiana or is a hair bit stronger. I'll eat my words. Edited December 19, 2022 by CrazyINwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Once again Euro doesn't appear to be budging. Agreed. It’s ever so slightly South compared to 12z. Definitely not way over in W IL life the GFS which is great tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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