easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: This is definitely starting to look like Wisconsin’s storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Sticking to my guns...going to painfully watch & wait 'til Tues. 12z before getting too worked up over/buying into any of these Op runs. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 19, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Time to pray for the unicorn thunder snow of 6” as the cold front whips through shown on the GFS Right?! My part of SCPA gets 9” in a three hour period. Parts of NWPA nearly 24” in 6 hours. No. Edited December 19, 2022 by Penn State 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Penn State said: Right?! My part of SCPA gets 9” in a three hour period. Parts of NWPA nearly 24” in 6 hours. No. Happens in movies, why not real life?!?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Wow if it keeps coming, I might actually get some snow from this. Weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 19, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Happens in movies, why not real life?!?! It’s nuts. Never in my life could you tell me that a low would cut through Chicago, and I would somehow end up with a foot of snow.. not to mention a temp that goes from 60 to 8.. with 60-80mph winds. FICTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 WPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Sticking to my guns...going to painfully watch & wait 'til Tues. 12z before getting too worked up over/buying into any of these Op runs. Calling it now, this is a large overcorrection west. Lots of time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Central Illinois said: WPC WPC over here talking me off the ledge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Penn State said: It’s nuts. Never in my life could you tell me that a low would cut through Chicago, and I would somehow end up with a foot of snow.. not to mention a temp that goes from 60 to 8.. with 60-80mph winds. FICTION. Algorithms are clearly incapable of handling these types of extreme setups 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, easton229 said: This is definitely starting to look like Wisconsin’s storm Another few clicks west and I will be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) but really though? lol Edited December 19, 2022 by NeXrad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Glad I never got too excited 😂😂😂 let’s see what the next few days hold. Could squeak out a backside inch. I’d be ok with that. A little white goes a long way these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) . Edited December 19, 2022 by Snow____ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Another few clicks west and I will be done. I shouldn’t have gotten too excited 5 days out. I’ll learn from my mistake here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Lots of panic here over a storm not even sampled yet that is still several days out. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, Snow____ said: You keep saying that… it’s easily much further East with the low than GFS. He’s not saying anything wrong. Do you not like this guy or something 😂😂 oh he's my go to guy he just always has a silver lining to every run...everyone here knows who I don't like Edited December 19, 2022 by NeXrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, easton229 said: I shouldn’t have gotten too excited 5 days out. I’ll learn from my mistake here. I believe DTX’s strong wording still holds some merit. They aren’t ones to state things lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, easton229 said: I shouldn’t have gotten too excited 5 days out. I’ll learn from my mistake here. If this solution is still being shown by Tuesday evening then it's time to throw in the towel. Still a long way to go. 😊 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Pros3lyte said: Is the east coast ridge really that much stronger than the arctic air push? Or Do I have no idea what I’m talking about? Still learning Tomorrow I’ll pull out the upper levels and show you what is happening. The whole scenario is built on arctic air dropping down with a piece of energy and carving a trough. The position of this trough is the driver for the position of the low because as the energy hits the base, a powderkeg is set off between the very cold, dry air to the northwest and the comparably warm moist air to the southeast. The low will feed on this and move north northeast from the base of the trough until the trough turns negative. The biggest misnomer that I have read so far is that the low cannot be that far west due to how much cold there is coming in. It is more about position and size of the wave. Think of physics class and the slinky wave example. The deeper your wave, the higher your heights will be out front which will make it look like the SER is flexing, but that’s not really the case. For a good look at this take the GFS 0z hour 60 500mb with our energy entering northern Washington, look how flat the flow is. Then look at hour 96 and the trough that has been carved. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Pros3lyte said: I believe DTX’s strong wording still holds some merit. They aren’t ones to state things lightly. True. That’s the only thing I’m holding onto lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, easton229 said: I shouldn’t have gotten too excited 5 days out. I’ll learn from my mistake here. Doubt this track is settled. Could still move back SE. If it goes further west I will be amazed. That GFS solution really seemed to max out. Would be worse then the GHD storm as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Cary67 said: Doubt this track is settled. Could still move back SE. If it goes further west I will be amazed. That GFS solution really seemed to max out. Would be worse then the GHD storm as depicted. GDH Storm didn’t pan out too well for SEMI either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 As you would anticipate given the OP, GEFS slides NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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