MidMichiganWx Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I look less at ensemble means every year - they are good data points to look at but rarely verify IMO. ECM is just too far west. With the long range predictions showing so much cold, I don’t see rain being that far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Any of the energy players for this beast get any sampling with the 0z suite tonight? I could look, but if someone else has already done the leg work, thought I'd ask first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, MidMichiganWx said: I look less at ensemble means every year - they are good data points to look at but rarely verify IMO. ECM is just too far west. With the long range predictions showing so much cold, I don’t see rain being that far west. Bernie mentioned that about the ensemble means in his video today as well. Basically called out people who said he was wrong because he was not agreeing with what the ensemble means were showing a couple days ago and now look what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Any of the energy players for this beast get any sampling with the 0z suite tonight? I could look, but if someone else has already done the leg work, thought I'd ask first. eh, just took a look - pretty clear that we've got a long way to go here. Sometimes sampling changes very little, but other times there can be pretty sharp changes with sampling. Guess I won't start taking any op runs/trends too seriously until about 12z on Tuesday. Edited December 19, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I hope Bernie knows what he is talking about or might end up like this Bernie afterwards lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Popular Post Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: eh, just took a look - pretty clear that we've got a long way to go here. Sometimes sampling changes very little, but other times there can be pretty sharp changes with sampling. Guess I won't start taking any op runs/trends too seriously until about 12z on Tuesday. We're still somewhere in here 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: We're still somewhere in here And there it is! Been waiting all day for that graphic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: eh, just took a look - pretty clear that we've got a long way to go here. Sometimes sampling changes very little, but other times there can be pretty sharp changes with sampling. Guess I won't start taking any op runs/trends too seriously until about 12z on Tuesday. This is where I'm at. Operational models always seem to struggle with these big arctic fronts and the energies that interact with them. Usually the systems are too amped until sampling occurs. Makes it a difficult forecast nonetheless. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Probably the furthest digging run so far 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 ICON is coming in stronger and a little west vs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I'm already at peace with the fact that I will be a bit too south and east of the main snows but will wait until the bitter end 🙂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 19, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: This system is weather porn. You can click on pretty much any feature and you'll see crazy stuff Edited December 19, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: ICON is coming in stronger and a little west vs 18z 984 over Chicago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 19, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: I saw this on Twitter in reference to the NAM vs. the Euro.. however, if you look at the trough over North Dakota, it’s positively tilted. On the Euro, that’s negative. Would indicate dig.. East? I don’t know a ton, just throwing it out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 19, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, JayPSU said: What step of denial are we in when we’re looking anywhere for models we like? 😀 Back in the Accu Weather days, it was around this time we anxiously awaited the posting of the Brazilian Model. For some reason, it always looked good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 984 over Chicago 980 over Milwaukee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: ICON is coming in stronger and a little west vs 18z At least I’ll always have my profile pic to look at 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 980 over Milwaukee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Last 4 runs of the ICON - same time stamp 💩 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 984 over Chicago Geez 🤦🏽♂️. I should have stayed away for a couple days. Give me the 0z gfs from yesterday back 😂😂😂. This will be a fun storm to see unfold. Let’s see what happens. This will be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I'm sorry, but there's no freaking way it cuts that far west - famous last words, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 19, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 19, 2022 Wow if the ICON keeps shifting west we'll get a rare double hit on that run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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