December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[Ingyball]

1 minute ago, Pros3lyte said:

 

Haha my claim is backed by no scientific fact whatsoever except the fact that I spend so many evenings every winter slamming my laptop shut and forcing my wife to listen to me complain about how much I can’t stand living in SEMI 

TBF it typically does a great job in any other scenario but extreme cold lol

[CIWeather]

Now entering hair-pulling/constant refresh time 😂

[easton229]

4 minutes ago, CIWeather said:

Now entering hair-pulling/constant refresh time 😂

🎶 Its the most, wonderful time, of the year 🎶 

[easton229]

NAM should start getting interesting with the next run this afternoon.

[StLweatherjunkie]

21 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

 

Haha my claim is backed by no scientific fact whatsoever except the fact that I spend so many evenings every winter slamming my laptop shut and forcing my wife to listen to me complain about how much I can’t stand living in SEMI 

Plenty of space for you UP here!

[Iceresistance]

First to be NAMed on the 12z NAM is me

[junior]

LR NAM is similar to GFS, though digging a bit more.

[Jpfalcon]

Blizzard Bill essentially all in this morning on Facebook. Just a question of timing with the front and how well all the ingredients come together.

One thing to look out for too will be lakeshore flooding on Friday with those strong N/NW winds. Going to be some epic waves on the lakes. 

[BoroBuckeye]

10 hours ago, Ingyball said:

So we have recon sampling this storm it seems. Could see big changes at 12z.

 

This will show in the 12Z runs, correct?

Putting this back out there in case it was buried from last night.

[Ingyball]

1 minute ago, BoroBuckeye said:

This will show in the 12Z runs, correct?

Putting this back out there in case it was buried from last night.

yeah it should

Edited December 18, 2022 by Ingyball

[junior]

12z ICON looks Euroish. Low pretty much right over SW MI corner

[MesoscaleBanding]

12z ICON still jumping around fairly significantly upstream...Still a long way to go until the models have a decent grip on this. IMO, 100+ mile mean track shifts still very much in play over the next 48 hours. 

[beaver56]

Have a really bad feeling about this. I thInk Ohio and Indiana could be a miss on the heavy snow. Seen it a million times. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by beaver56

[MesoscaleBanding]

ICON is still clueless - SLP jumps from Grand Rapids, MI to Erie PA in a matter of 3 hours. 

[RobB]

1 minute ago, beaver56 said:

Have a really bad feeling about this. I th8nk Ohio and Indiana could be a miss on the heavy snow. Seen it a million times. 

What would be more disappointing for me is if this was less wound up.  I want snow but I can live with a wound up storm that lashes with winds and snow showers after.

[easton229]

Just now, MesoscaleBanding said:

ICON is still clueless - SLP jumps from Grand Rapids, MI to Erie PA in a matter of 3 hours. 

To be fair, hasn’t the ICON always been clueless?

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, easton229 said:

To be fair, hasn’t the ICON always been clueless?

Not as clueless as the GFS has been lately.

[Indygirl]

27 minutes ago, Jpfalcon said:

Blizzard Bill essentially all in this morning on Facebook. Just a question of timing with the front and how well all the ingredients come together.

One thing to look out for too will be lakeshore flooding on Friday with those strong N/NW winds. Going to be some epic waves on the lakes. 

I just found his page. 
will listen in a bit, thank you for the tip! 

[MesoscaleBanding]

That ICON run shows temperatures in central/west-cent. OH going from near 40F to below 0 in a matter of about 6 hours. Would be crazy

[RobB]

Just now, MesoscaleBanding said:

That ICON run shows temperatures in central/west-cent. OH going from near 40F to below 0 in a matter of about 6 hours. Would be crazy

That definitely would be something!

[StLweatherjunkie]

24 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

ICON is still clueless - SLP jumps from Grand Rapids, MI to Erie PA in a matter of 3 hours. 

I think you are putting too much faith in tropical tidbits algorithm to find the surface low center. Looking at the MSLP field you can see there's still a low pressure at the southern edge of Lake MI at h117. 

Edit: to be fair the ICON has been more consistent than some other models being cited frequently in this thread 🙃

Anyways ... that'll do donkey, that'll do:

Edited December 18, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie

[MidwestWX]

1 minute ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I think you are putting too much faith in tropical tidbits algorithm to find the surface low center. Looking at the MSLP field you can see there's still a low pressure at the southern edge of Lake MI at h117. 

Anyways ... that'll do donkey, that'll do:

You beat me to the explanation!! Thank you 🙂

[junior]

I don't see any major changes on the GFS so far, mostly nudges here and there at H5 through hour 90.

Edited December 18, 2022 by junior

[MesoscaleBanding]

5 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I think you are putting too much faith in tropical tidbits algorithm to find the surface low center. Looking at the MSLP field you can see there's still a low pressure at the southern edge of Lake MI at h117. 

Edit: to be fair the ICON has been more consistent than some other models being cited frequently in this thread 🙃

Anyways ... that'll do donkey, that'll do:

Fair point - I don't have any faith in any ICON solution though. Consistency could always just mean consistently incorrect. Question - if the TT algorithm jumps the main SLP from G.R. to Erie in 3 hours, won't that erroneously affect what the model precipitation/temperature output consequently shows? 

[BoroBuckeye]

GFS coming further west 😢