December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[RadioWX]

3 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

No way this would actually verify, that’s insanity. 

Even cut the WC in half, it’s still cruel! 

[BoroBuckeye]

6Z icon looked gross.

[StLweatherjunkie]

Relevant portion of the Marquette NWS AFD:

By Wednesday evening, all attention will be focused on the likelihood of a high-impact winter storm somewhere in the eastern CONUS. All major global models show an intense 180+ knot jet streak resulting in pressure falls lee of the Rocky Mountains across the south-central Plains at 00z Thursday. The subsequent track of this low pressure is still low confidence, but the most likely outcome continues to be a track into the Great Lakes region. ECMWF guidance has been the most consistent from run-to-run with the past three 00/12z model runs showing a ~980 mb meteorological bomb cyclone over central Lower MI at 12z Friday. The same three GFS runs advertised a surface low somewhere between the East Coast and Cincinnati, OH representing a substantial westward shift toward ECMWF solutions. The Canadian trended southeast from a low in Marquette Harbor to a low near Binghamton, NY during these model runs, but still has substantial lake-enhanced QPF approaching 2" in our area. Past experience suggests high-amplitude systems like this one tend to favor the farther northwest solutions. The latest 00z EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ensemble member MSLP centers all include support for a ~980 mb surface low in the vicinity of central lower Michigan. In fact, there seems to be more EPS support for a farther northwest low center over Wisconsin, the UP, or Lake Superior than there is for more southeast GFS-ish solutions. A ~70mb pressure gradient developing between the deepening low and a ~1050mb arctic ridge nearly guarantees strong winds on Friday with EFI >0.7 and SoT >1 guidance already suggesting potential for very unusual if not extreme winds. EFI and SoT guidance are also beginning to highlight potential for unusually large snowfall potential, especially within the lake effect snow belts. Strong winds and snowfall suggests a non-zero potential for blizzard conditions in the days leading up to Christmas when many folks will be traveling. Traveling hazards appear to be exacerbated by potential for a prolonged period of below 0F wind chills. Stay tuned.

[BuckeyeGal]

I'm going to be MIA for a large portion of the day.. so have fun tracking and behave. 😉 I'll pop in when I can!

[Wnwniner]

Are we thinking that today's 12z and tonight's 0z runs "should" really come together and get us a much better idea on details and then just wobbles in the early week?

[Ohiobuckeye45]

20 minutes ago, Wnwniner said:

Are we thinking that today's 12z and tonight's 0z runs "should" really come together and get us a much better idea on details and then just wobbles in the early week?

Main energy doesn't come onshore until Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and then we have a system to get out of the way before that so I think we're still in the big shift window range if it so chooses

[Hiramite]

Any interest for something like this?

[Pros3lyte]

4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Any interest for something like this?

Yes. That is very helpful for beginners such as myself!

[Hiramite]

4 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

Yes. That is very helpful for beginners such as myself!

All righty then.  It will give me something to do as I wait for the SREFs to get within range, lol.

As of now, just planning on the 00 and 12z runs. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

6z GEFS

[easton229]

1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

6z GEFS

She’s a beaut Clark!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

6z eps

[cperry29]

06z was good for Indiana 

[MesoscaleBanding]

3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

6z eps

Ouch - not good for the Buckeye state

[Ohiobuckeye45]

6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Ouch - not good for the Buckeye state

Not ideal dryslotting in those solutions😖

[Ohiobuckeye45]

00z kma

[Ingyball]

I'm still scared this is all going to shift south of me 😅

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[MidwestWX]

7 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I'm still scared this is all going to shift south of me 😅

 

I've accepted that it'll miss me but I'm still holding out hope for 1-4" on the initial edge of precipitation. I'm almost relieved that we've trended away from an all out epic blizzard imby though. 

[easton229]

9 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Ugh Low party at my house. Hopefully this trends closer to the GFS as we get closer.

[Pros3lyte]

11 minutes ago, easton229 said:

Ugh Low party at my house. Hopefully this trends closer to the GFS as we get closer.

I feel like more often than not king euro wins out when it comes to low placement but maybe that’s just my pessimism 😅

[Ingyball]

5 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

I feel like more often than not king euro wins out when it comes to low placement but maybe that’s just my pessimism 😅

It tends to do the worst with handling surface cold however, and that will affect storm track. 

[easton229]

6 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

I feel like more often than not king euro wins out when it comes to low placement but maybe that’s just my pessimism 😅

That’s cause us in SEMI have been burned a couple hundred times lol

[Pros3lyte]

4 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

It tends to do the worst with handling surface cold however, and that will affect storm track. 

 

4 minutes ago, easton229 said:

That’s cause us in SEMI have been burned a couple hundred times lol

Haha my claim is backed by no scientific fact whatsoever except the fact that I spend so many evenings every winter slamming my laptop shut and forcing my wife to listen to me complain about how much I can’t stand living in SEMI 

[Ingyball]

The wind potential for this storm is insane. To have widespread areas of 0.8 and pockets of 0.9 this early is crazy. I'm getting December 15th vibes for wind but much more expansive. Good snow signal too. There's a chance that this could be the textbook non-tropical system of the year.