Iceresistance Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Your geography makes it tough, your average down there is hard to be a snow lover lol I will never accept defeat with this one because I'm in the area of least resistance for the cold wave to sink in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Good grief!!! 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) If I have to go through this without the benefit of snow, screw that nonsense lol Edited December 17, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: If I have to go through this without the benefit of snow, screw that nonsense lol This is madness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Max 10m wind gusts in KNOTS during the entire storm (so peak gust of the event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WOW!!!! THE TEMPERATURE DROPS TO SUB ZERO DURING THE STORM!!! CRAZY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Max 10m wind gusts in KNOTS during the entire storm (so peak gust of the event) Yikes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) The has the makings of a very severe blizzard for someone. Edited December 17, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) Last post for me, Snowing with temps below 0. At that point your ratios are almost working AGAINST you, especially considering humidity levels would be lower in that setup Edited December 17, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just lurking this one for now. Zero confidence in any thing I’ve seen so far. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1062 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 From @Kentuckyweather "Which of those camps are right? I can see arguments for both, but I’m somewhere in between those two camps. It’s interesting to note that all 4 of the models above produce a blizzard but differ on where it will hit." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) Why KFOR? Already calling for a Blizzard on the 23rd!? I don't call it that yet until it's absolutely locked in! Edited December 17, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 000 FXUS63 KIND 170756 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 256 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 Thursday through Saturday(Potential Winter System)... Latest guidance continues to signal towards the potential for an impactful low pressure system to pass through the Ohio Valley sometime between Thursday morning and Friday. With that said, there is significant variability amongst both ensemble members and various deterministic runs during the 00Z issuance Saturday. ****************************************** Differences in Deterministic Solutions: * ****************************************** First, lets discuss the deterministic runs. The GFS has continued to be an outlier, mainly due to the position of the ridge axis over the Western CONUS. The american model has the ridge axis over the intermountain west, leading to a shorter wavelength and therefor a neutrally tilted amplified trough over the Midwest. This solution would result in more impacts over the eastern US versus the Midwest. Of note is a slightly weaker thickness gradient prior to cyclogenesis. With the high likelihood of a rather anomalous cold sector within this system this leads to the belief that this solution may be misleading. On the other hand is the remainder of the deterministic suite (Canadian, ECMWF, UKMET). These three are much more aligned on the ridge axis placement further west over the Pacific Coast. In return, the wave length is larger, allowing for a more positively tilted upper trough and less subtropical jet influence. The polar jet in this instance in piece-wise with a strong jet streak upstream of the trough and a supergeostrophic jet streak near the ridge over the Northeast. A couple jet streak provides an efficient environment for surface cyclogenesis, as seen near the surface of these various solutions. All three of these solutions also seem to better represent the anomalous Arctic air expected in the cold sector, increasing baroclinicity and the rate of surface pressure depletion. This is not to say that these solutions will end up being the result next week, but the meteorological interactions over the 150 hours of output do have plausible explanations. ********************************** Ensemble and Probabilistic Output: * ********************************** These deterministic solutions can help dissect the probabilistic output given through various ensemble members of each parent model. With the conceptual model chosen (longer wave length, positively tiled trough, coupled polar jet), we can narrow the expected solutions to those that align. There is still a wide range of solutions even through this process, but this does show a trend of some sort of deep surface cyclone over the Midwest, Ohio Valley, or Tennessee Valley Thursday into Friday. This leads to a greater likelihood of an impactful winter storm within the vicinity of central Indiana. The track of the surface low will still have a significant influence on the severity and type of impact central Indiana will witness. Any track south of central Indiana will lead to a greater chance of significant snow fall, whereas north or through central Indiana will limit snow, but increase rain and even thunderstorm chances. This process also shows a wide array of temperature outcomes for late next week, ranging from low 50s in the warm sector, to mid 20s in the cold sector. For now, temperature forecasts are more aligned with the ensemble mean, but the result with much more likely be on the lower or higher extremes (10th or 90th percentile). ******************************** Winter Storm Brief Conclusion: * ******************************** Through a diagnostic synoptic process, discussed above, trends are leaning towards an impactful low pressure system with a low track ranging from Chicago to Nashville. Many potential solutions and outcomes remain in play including the potential for significant snowfall sometime between Thursday morning and Friday. There are still many factors that will influence the forecast in the coming days. Behind this system will be an influx of extremely cold Arctic air. Morning lows late next week are likely to be in the single digits. Stay weather aware as this system approaches and check back for updates. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post StLweatherjunkie Posted December 17, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted December 17, 2022 Shameless plug for the relevant portion of the AFD that I wrote: LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 351 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2022 Fairly typical December pattern with light to locally moderate snow chances through Tuesday. The pattern amplifies substantially late next week as a powerful storm system carves out a longwave trough across the eastern CONUS. There is growing potential for this system to bring high-impact winter weather to our area Thursday into next weekend. .... On Wednesday, a powerful 170+ kt jet streak moves into the inter- mountain west resulting in pressure falls lee of the Rockies. What happens next is unclear, but the most likely outcome appears to be a rapidly deepening surface low tracking into the Great Lakes region around Thursday. The 00z ECMWF advertises 24-hr pressure falls of 34mb, which far exceeds the criteria of a meteorological bomb. This system develops along an intense baroclinic zone separating the coldest air mass of the season thus far from a warm and moist Gulf of Mexico air mass. No matter what happens with the synoptic system, lake effect snow is nearly certain for Friday and Saturday as this cold air mass moves across the Great Lakes. Ensemble means indicate northerly winds on Friday backing northwesterly on Saturday. EFI guidance suggests the most extreme cold temperatures stay to our southwest, but the combination of cold and wind indicates potential for a prolonged period of below 0F wind chills late next week. Altogether, the chance of high-impact winter weather appears to be increasing for late next week. Stay tuned. 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS isn’t terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadioWX Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, CrazyINwx said: GFS isn’t terrible. Definitely a more realistic run that benefits the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Not sure I’d be posting stuff like this 6 days out but 🤷🏻♂️ 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Icon would wind up similar to GFS still, maybe bigger 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Not sure I’d be posting stuff like this 6 days out but 🤷🏻♂️ Hate to say it, but I actually agree with them that this is shaping up to be a blizzard somewhere in the Great Lakes. I'm not sure the comparison to 1978 is particularly relevant though, because it will be a different storm ... Anyways, even the GFS ensembles have support for a ~985mb low over Lake Huron/Erie Friday morning: Edited December 17, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) I have a lot of catching up to do, but I don't think Bernie's latest video from last night has been posted yet. My short summary in Spoiler in case someone doesn't want to listen/watch to the whole 20min video. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1lDxLnqkDAoGm Spoiler Nutshell. He still ignoring the Canadian. He believes the Upper Low to track between I-95 and Chicago then he changes/narrows it down to the west track through ~Indy. Blizzard is possible. EDIT: I see @RobB already posted it. I leave it here in case someone missed it (like I did my first time thru, lol.) Edited December 17, 2022 by Hiramite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted December 17, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 17, 2022 Man, I’m out of practice. Fell asleep waiting on the 0z GFS. 😆 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Not sure I’d be posting stuff like this 6 days out but 🤷🏻♂️ Omg….if they’re putting this out there already?….in my area (Indiana) people will be going bonkers within a day or two! ….just the mention of a system approaching being compared to 1978 is crazy! Im gonna go check out their latest on Facebook. I was too busy at work yesterday to even be online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 17, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 17, 2022 Its going to keep changing, but we're trending in the right direction. So FWIW.... 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted December 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 17, 2022 38 minutes ago, Indygirl said: Omg….if they’re putting this out there already?….in my area (Indiana) people will be going bonkers within a day or two! ….just the mention of a system approaching being compared to 1978 is crazy! Im gonna go check out their latest on Facebook. I was too busy at work yesterday to even be online. "Controversy creates cash" and hurts any reasonable attempt at messaging by professionals😞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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