RobB Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, junior said: 0z GFS is clearly different from 12z and 18z, looks slower overall and the vort ahead looks stronger/slower so that adds some more wave interference than last runs. Whaat?! It wasn't locked in?! 🙂 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Its still gonna be a nice storm for someone, but I see it organizing too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Well the trade off here is there’s less confluence to the north which helps us even though it’s slower to organize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, junior said: Its still gonna be a nice storm for someone, but I see it organizing too late for us. good, literally anything but a cutter is a win in my book, after last year, I think we deserve at LEAST a cold and dry Christmas week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) Darn, an exact replica of 18z didn't happen 😥 I almost want to say if there were less confluence, this look would have sent it into OH. The SER poked its head more this run than prior runs but the ridge out west poked a bit east in response. Also the 0z GEM will probably cut into the upper lakes 😄 Edited December 17, 2022 by junior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, junior said: Darn, an exact replica of 18z didn't happen 😥 I almost want to say if there were less confluence, this look would have sent it into OH. The SER poked its head more this run than prior runs but the ridge out west poked a bit east in response. Also the 0z GEM will probably cut into the upper lakes 😄 yup, wow literally couldn't be any closer than 12z, you would think this was a comparison of runs 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS is at least workable. CMC on the other hand, sticking to the cutter idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 just a wee bit of difference between the GFS and CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: just a wee bit of difference between the GFS and CMC The CMC still has the "Blue Norther" idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 This should be a fun one to track. That being said, we’re due for a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 The CMC mimics the UK with a sub 980 low over northern MI also still carries the idea of fantasy unicorn post frontal snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The CMC run would be very fun to experience too. No matter what precip type falls in ones back yard, the meteorology of this system is potentially exciting to watch play out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 0z GEM throwing down a foot of backend snow in IN 😄 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The CMC mimics the UK with a sub 980 low over northern MI also still carries the idea of fantasy unicorn post frontal snow Are you doubting 6-8” of snow in 6 hours of post frontal passage snows??? 😅 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just wow if this verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The more wild thing with the cmc other than that post frontal snow which is possible in this kind of arctic outbreak is that from Akron Ohio to Pittsburgh which is only 80 miles goes from 45 degrees to 3 degrees that’s a 42 degree difference and from rain to a arctic 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, junior said: 0z GEM throwing down a foot of backend snow in IN 😄 Nice. I like being the strip of light snow in Indiana. 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 OV residents get Round #2 from the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, junior said: 0z GEM throwing down a foot of backend snow in IN 😄 It's not backend it's mostly frontal squalls. Those are some serious snow squalls with front. Probably convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Are you doubting 6-8” of snow in 6 hours of post frontal passage snows??? 😅 Even if this were the solution to verify, we would see inside 48 hours and even nowcast there is NEVER enough QPF in the frontal sector to produce, regardless of the argument of how fast the colder catches up, the faster the cold catches up, the quicker dry air pushes in and cuts off moisture. I haven't yet....but I really hope to not see mets pumping this idea because it would be utter heartbreak again this is only alluding to the fantasy frontal snows Edited December 17, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 wow the GFS has the low in the NE at 955 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 this is 3 systems combined (2 for plains) 2 for NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 here was the ICON at 10:1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 the cold air is slow as molasses on the UK compared to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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