BoroBuckeye Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Ha, I’m way too invested in this. Objectively, I’ll consider it a win that the pieces for something remain in play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Already big differences, looks like a more prominent western ridging setup and energy is behing held back in the PAC NW. This could be an altogether new solution Definitely is, winds up a clipper ish type system, more of a western ridge too, weaker HP, further west. Looks like it's going to be a coastal bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) You can see the ridging out west stronger and further east than prior runs Edited December 14, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 Not buying the trough over Alaska the GFS suddenly develops. It loves to push everything east too quickly. Like I said before the answer is south. I think we're looking at something trekking across Texas and then perhaps through the Apps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 Lmao the cmc/gfs swapped solutions from 12z almost verbatim 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Lmao the cmc/gfs swapped solutions from 12z almost verbatim Edited December 14, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Not buying the trough over Alaska the GFS suddenly develops. It loves to push everything east too quickly. Like I said before the answer is south. I think we're looking at something trekking across Texas and then perhaps through the Apps. 11:00 mark. Bernie seems to agree with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: 11:00 mark. Bernie seems to agree with you. A lot of what I learned about winter weather came from Bernie so I'm glad he agrees with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Not buying the trough over Alaska the GFS suddenly develops. It loves to push everything east too quickly. Like I said before the answer is south. I think we're looking at something trekking across Texas and then perhaps through the Apps. It could be it should've had it all along, based on the cmc last several runs its been there, whereas the GFS 00z was really the first...that said it's positioned differently than the cmc still This also highlights the clear trend in the GFS western ridging nudging east...will be curious to see the PNA this run Edited December 14, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Model madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 14, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: It could be it should've had it all along, based on the cmc last several runs its been there, whereas the GFS 00z was really the first...that said it's positioned differently than the cmc still This also highlights the clear trend in the GFS western ridging nudging east...will be curious to see the PNA this run It's the models breaking down the EPO ridge too quickly and instituting a PNA ridge. They always do this with this setup. Saw it back in February 2021 too. We'll eventually get to the PNA ridge but it will be after the storm next week not before it. But yeah, I'm not buying a storm sliding east-southeast between a 1063 surface high to it's north-northeast and a 1055 surface high to it's east. The only place for it to go is south. I still think this is a Southern Plains storm, especially in Texas. Edited December 14, 2022 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) The euro is horrible, still nothing but a cold front that pumps warm air out ahead. There is virtually no ridging in the west that the CMC and GFS have Edited December 14, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 6z GFS is a clipper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 14, 2022 Author Share Posted December 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The euro is horrible, still nothing but a cold front that pumps warm air out ahead. There is virtually no ridging in the west that was CMC and GFS has This would suggest the European OP, is an outlier during this time frame. Even against its own ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 6z GFS is a clipper What's a "clipper"? 😉 At least we have some action/possibilities. Hopefully some exciting times upcoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 42 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 6z GFS is a clipper I'd take it. Clippers generally produce well for SWPA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 14, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 55 minutes ago, Hiramite said: I’ll take a slight risk this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 (edited) Usually its a waste of time to compare/discuss differences 10 days out but since its just before/on Xmas Its totally worth it. 12z GFS is a bit better than the prior two runs - still a fropa looking storm... 12z CMC continues showing a beast setup. I mean what more can you want from this H5 look Edited December 14, 2022 by junior 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Absolute beast on the CMC. Sign me up! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Talk about a troll run..geez. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6z GEFS hints at a track up the Apps with a transfer to the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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