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December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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5 minutes ago, Pros3lyte said:

Looks like the precip shield has edged over my location . It’s coming down moderately, the grass is still showing but getting More covered. DTX says Lake effect should be pretty good over the next couple days, so here’s to hoping we get some ground coverage to look pretty for the holiday!

Power keeps going and coming back, but I’ve got the generator all set up so we’ll stay warm. Got a day of hot coffee, Christmas movies, games with the kids, and cookies! It could be worse- it could be raining 😄 stay safe and warm everyone!!

Yea I seem to have this little guy just hanging around so it’s been a constant light snow here all morning. Hopefully it continues through the day.

4FAA02C5-E5A5-40EF-9D5C-989E663471E0.png

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8 minutes ago, RobB said:

Not at all, couple posts ago, I mentioned maybe opening a thread for this. Be it for a while after this. 

Might as well to keep up the traffic on here.

EDIT:  just measured a 51 mph wind gust out here. 

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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14 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Might as well to keep up the traffic on here.

EDIT:  just measured a 51 mph wind gust out here. 

Your personal weather station measured that!??!?

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IMO, it was pretty inevitable that criteria would be met (or very close to it) if we're strictly following the blizzard criteria definition. If there's even a 50/50 shot (and there surely was) that criteria would be met, why not issue the blizzard warning? What's the point in having the specific criteria if we're not going to use it? Rant over, I just don't understand the hesitancy. This isn't a rant against the NWS, I'm just trying to understand the logic...

Screen Shot 2022-12-23 at 10.23.25 AM.png

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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Just woke up and I have an update on the Water Emergency

 

Crisis averted, my grandmother's method of wrapping the pump housing with blankets and tarp worked! We now have water again with no bursting pipes! Even though that when it's warmer outside, it needs a full inspection for possible attempted bursts. 

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27 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

IMO, it was pretty inevitable that criteria would be met if we're strictly following the blizzard criteria definition. If there's even a 50/50 shot (and there surely was) that criteria would be met, why not issue the blizzard warning? What's the point in having the specific criteria if we're not going to use it? Rant over, I just don't understand the hesitancy. This isn't a rant against the NWS, I'm just trying to understand the logic...

Screen Shot 2022-12-23 at 10.23.25 AM.png

Since we're just talking here, the 3 hour requirement seems too brief IMO.

Edit to add, Youngstown met the criteria earlier this AM too.

Edited by Hiramite
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8 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

IMO, it was pretty inevitable that criteria would be met if we're strictly following the blizzard criteria definition. If there's even a 50/50 shot (and there surely was) that criteria would be met, why not issue the blizzard warning? What's the point in having the specific criteria if we're not going to use it? Rant over, I just don't understand the hesitancy. This isn't a rant against the NWS, I'm just trying to understand the logic...

Screen Shot 2022-12-23 at 10.23.25 AM.png

This is why impact based warnings would be great. For a blizzard warning most forecasters probably aren't issuing it unless they have at least 70/30 confidence. However, I doubt confidence wasn't high enough that there would similar impacts, just that the criteria would or would not be met. Warning for impact is the way to go imo. There's a lot I can't talk about though that feeds in to this but I am hopeful that some of our upcoming changes will help with this. That said there's still a lot that still needs to change as well.

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5 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Since we're just talking here, the 3 hour requirement seems a bit too brief IMO.

I am not a fan of using wind gusts either.  I prefer sustained winds of 35.  Of course, maybe just use visibility alone?

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12 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Since we're just talking here, the 3 hour requirement seems too brief IMO.

 

8 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

This is why impact based warnings would be great. For a blizzard warning most forecasters probably aren't issuing it unless they have at least 70/30 confidence. However, I doubt confidence wasn't high enough that there would similar impacts, just that the criteria would or would not be met. Warning for impact is the way to go imo. There's a lot I can't talk about though that feeds in to this but I am hopeful that some of our upcoming changes will help with this. That said there's still a lot that still needs to change as well.

 

6 minutes ago, RobB said:

I am not a fan of using wind gusts either.  I prefer sustained winds of 35.  Of course, maybe just use visibility alone?

Great thoughts. I tend to agree that blizzard criteria should be at least a bit harder to attain...Maybe keep the same quantitative conditional benchmarks the same, but extend the length to 6 hours or more in duration? And if 6 hours likely aren't attainable just make note in the WSW headlines that brief blizzard-like conditions are possible/likely? 

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Looked through all the Paducah NWS reports for West ky, SE MO, & S. Illinois & it's 2-4 inches across the board. Minimum report 2.0 & largest report 4.5.  

So RAP & HRRR did really well on amounts right before system. GFS top much. Euro did ok in some locations Maybe a little under in others. 

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