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December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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3 minutes ago, Central Illinois said:

power has went out here twice already and winds will really get cranking tomorrow

That’s not good. During that last video I took I thought to myself that I could definitely see power going out to some in the city. These aren’t even the main winds we are to get tomorrow and they are cranking right now. 

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1 hour ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Yeah, I'm in Marquette. My guess is it'll end up somewhere in-between. It's just funny that hours before things start discrepancies of 1+ inches of QPF exist between models. Snow ratios are also very tricky because the soundings look good for high SLRs, but winds are gonna rip flakes apart at least along the lakeshores.

These two models have potential to be the difference between 4 and 30" of snow and those kinds of gradients are a real possibility somewhere UP here so forecasting lake effect in this kind of situation is a no-win proposition.

Definitely quite the difference. Hard to figure out what to do. Lake Effect is so volatile. It’s hard to figure out what’s going to happen. I hope you end up with closer to 30” than 4 more.

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Continued snow/winds here in Columbus area.  Roads are pretty bad, especially N/S roads.  Starting to have issues with truck windows freezing open, salt is really starting to not work much at all, and with that wind expected to pick up, we're in for a long few days.

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This is not what we were wanting at all, guys. At least I didn’t want this kind of thing. 
My Lord!! 
My hub is a grown ass man who was out driving tractors and pulling folks out of ditches during the ‘78 blizzard. 
 

He had a hard time getting home from work in his SUV last night. He’s forbidden me to go to work today especially since I’ve been sick. 

He said it is beyond, extremely dangerous outside.
I’ve never….. ever ….heard him say this before. 
Right now we have -10….-35 wind chill. The wind is howling.

Thank God we still have power. 
 

Edited by Indygirl
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First obs report up here.  Light snow currently maaayyybbeeeee a half inch so far.  Temp 21.   Nope, hold on temp 20....

CLE increased snow amounts overnight for much of NE OH.  I'll be happy with half that.

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Maybe .5” here with 15 degree temps. Only thing that’s been as advertised is the wind which is howling, but nothing we haven’t seen in this area before. Big time stretch on the “historic” part of this storm for my area unless there’s some hidden tricks we have yet to see.

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7 hours ago, cloudy_jake said:

My SREF plumes are close to 8 inches now for Hamilton! How accurate are these when a storm is on going?

Obviously, like other modeling tools, their accuracy increases closer to "game time".  Similarly, sometimes they work out great, sometimes not so great.  IMO, as discussed with the model runs for this storm, the Snow-to-Liquid ratio used by the models is the wild card when looking at the model output due to the wind and bitter temps.  So, in this case, the plumes numbers appear to be too high.

I typically do a predicted vs actual for the locations I have on the SREF Tracker but with these winds, measuring is going to be a challenge in many areas.

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13 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

I'll bet it's ripping snow in southwest Quebec right now ... WOW! Also, so much of the Midwest is cold enough to register as purple/blue hues intended for cloud temps 😍

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-13-10_56Z-20221223_map_noBar-10-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.ae566d1a03e8be8b4693f863bf9bb62b.gif

Quick shot of Canadian/US radar show that it is indeed ripping in southern Quebec!

image.thumb.png.5331e64e604e8de0ccc4c90c6e4dd58c.png

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New (to me) weather phenomenon...

 

Its so cold and windy out, that the bushes next to the office window froze and are now blowing into the window tapping on it.  At first I thought it was sleet and got real confused until I looked closer and realized what was going on.

 

Roads remain poor-don't travel unless you must!

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SWS just issued by CLE:

621 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...A line of snow showers will affect Portage...western Trumbull...
Mahoning...Geauga...Medina...Cuyahoga...Lake...Stark...Summit...
northeastern Wayne...northern Lorain and southwestern Ashtabula
Counties Until 745 AM EST....

At 619 AM EST, radar indicated snow showers along a line extending
from Western Vermilion to near Grafton to near Creston to near
Carrollton, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Visibility dropping to less than a quarter of a mile...
Up to 2 inches of quick snow accumulation...

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Lorain, Elyria, Warren, Medina,
Painesville, Willowick, Salem, Ravenna, Vermilion, Columbiana,
Chardon, Fairport Harbor, Parma, Lakewood, Cuyahoga Falls, Euclid and
Mentor.
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