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December 21st-24th, 2022 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm


Ohiobuckeye45

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Heaters on water jugs full just in case of the rapid freeze house cleaned. Probably 4 hours til it starts snowing here gonna hit the hay and wake up a little early to see what’s going on so i can start some observations good luck and goodnight everyone stay warm 

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Maybe my last couple videos of the night.

The path I’m walking I walked earlier and my footprints are nearly gone. A combination of the blowing and the snow continuing to fall. 
Also the top of my car I stuck my finger in it earlier and can’t even see the spot now. Definitely blowing crazy.

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Checking in dead center thumb of Michigan- rain didn’t change over until probably 12:30am- about 2 hours later and we have a light dusting. Not super windy yet. Holding at 30 degrees.

Looks like DTX says a potential inch before 3am and then possibly deform band tomorrow during the day. So far this storm is an absolute bust in this area of Michigan. We’ll see if that actually happens. Just 8 hours ago they were predicting 5-8 for my house. If things continue in this way I will be hoping for an inch, so we at least won’t see the grass for Christmas 

 

edit- DTX forecast discussion says deform band sets up tomorrow for further accums- we’ll see if it plays 

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Glad the storm is delivering the goods in the OHV! Congrats and seasons greetings!

Phase 1 of the storm is pretty much over UP here. Haven't measured but I'm guessing 5-6" with barely anything falling right now. Now to see if phase 2 delivers the goods IMBY or 20ish miles down the road.

00z HRRR vs 00Z NAM, FIGHT! ... Really hoping the HRRR wins!

image.thumb.png.4507e81cd8233a90c1ef0aa1f8e26df0.png

image.thumb.png.c87948df3acd204318b50137300a9ea9.png

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Couldn’t help myself. Had to get back out there for the finale. I’m completely satisfied. With all the blowing out there it’s hard to gauge but I’d say 3-5 inches out there. Winds are gusting pretty good. I’d say consistent gusts to at least 30mph and more in stronger gusts. Can’t wait to try and venture to work tomorrow. Goodnite everyone. It was worth the week I spent tracking this thing. I hope most here were able to pick up something to guarantee that white Christmas. 
I hope this won’t be the only good snow we get this year but if it is it was a fun one to track. 

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11 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Glad the storm is delivering the goods in the OHV! Congrats and seasons greetings!

Phase 1 of the storm is pretty much over UP here. Haven't measured but I'm guessing 5-6" with barely anything falling right now. Now to see if phase 2 delivers the goods IMBY or 20ish miles down the road.

00z HRRR vs 00Z NAM, FIGHT! ... Really hoping the HRRR wins!

image.thumb.png.4507e81cd8233a90c1ef0aa1f8e26df0.png

image.thumb.png.c87948df3acd204318b50137300a9ea9.png

Let’s us know. That’s a crazy amount of qpf and I take it you’re near Marquette because that’s the biggest discrepancy lol. Sticks out like a sore thumb.

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14 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

Let’s us know. That’s a crazy amount of qpf and I take it you’re near Marquette because that’s the biggest discrepancy lol. Sticks out like a sore thumb.

Yeah, I'm in Marquette. My guess is it'll end up somewhere in-between. It's just funny that hours before things start discrepancies of 1+ inches of QPF exist between models. Snow ratios are also very tricky because the soundings look good for high SLRs, but winds are gonna rip flakes apart at least along the lakeshores.

These two models have potential to be the difference between 4 and 30" of snow and those kinds of gradients are a real possibility somewhere UP here so forecasting lake effect in this kind of situation is a no-win proposition.

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